UK & Europe Archives - Page 58 of 88

June 15, 2012

The Institute For Fiscal Studies – Biggest one-year fall in middle incomes since 1981

“The fall in median income in 2010–11 of 3.1% was the largest
one-year fall since 1981 and returned it to the level last seen in
2004–05,” says Jonathan Cribb, a Research Economist at the IFS. “This was driven largely by a decline in real earnings as the
impact of the late 2000s recession on incomes finally started to become clear. Inequality also fell as those on benefits had their
incomes relatively better protected. Looking ahead, our forecasts
suggest that median incomes will have fallen further in 2011–12
and median incomes will be no higher in 2015–16 than they
were in 2002–03.”

via The Institute For Fiscal Studies – Biggest one-year fall in middle incomes since 1981.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

June 14, 2012

U.K. Aims to Mute Impact of Crisis – WSJ.com

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King announced plans to flood banks with cheap funds in a dual attempt to jump-start lending to British households and businesses and to fend off potential financial problems at big U.K. lenders. The programs resemble some of the emergency measures enacted by central banks in Europe and the U.S. during peak crisis periods in recent years.

via U.K. Aims to Mute Impact of Crisis – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 12, 2012

UK & Europe

Dow Jones Europe Index is testing long-term support at 210. Failure would signal a decline to the 2009 low of 150*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) already warns of a primary down-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong selling pressure.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 270 – 210 ) = 150

The FTSE 100 index is retracing to test resistance at 5600. Respect would indicate another primary decline — to test 5000 — while breach of medium-term support at 5250 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. A peak below the zero line would further strengthen the signal.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5300 – ( 5600 – 5300 ) = 5000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 10, 2012

Berlin is ignoring the lessons of the 1930s – FT.com

Germans must understand that bank recapitalisation, European deposit insurance and debt mutualisation are not optional; they are essential to avoid an irreversible disintegration of Europe’s monetary union. If they are still not convinced, they must understand that the costs of a eurozone break-up would be astronomically high – for themselves as much as anyone.

After all, Germany’s prosperity is in large measure a consequence of monetary union. The euro has given German exporters a far more competitive exchange rate than the old Deutschmark would have. And the rest of the eurozone remains the destination for 42 per cent of German exports. Plunging half of that market into a new Depression can hardly be good for Germany.

via Berlin is ignoring the lessons of the 1930s – FT.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 7, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro retraced to test resistance at the former primary support level of $1.26. The peak that respected the zero line on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum warns of a strong primary down-trend. Respect of resistance would strengthen the signal, indicating a test of the 2010 low at $1.20.

Euro/USD

Pound Sterling is correcting after strong appreciation against the Euro. Expect a test of the rising trendline around €1.21/€1.22. Penetration would warn of weakness, but respect and/or a 63-Day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a healthy primary up-trend.

Pound Sterling/Euro

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 5, 2012

Richard Koo: Where do we go from here?

How austerity will prolong the recession.

Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute at the Closing Panel entitled “Overhangs, Uncertainty and Political Order: Where Do We Go From Here?” at the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s (INET) Paradigm Lost Conference in Berlin. April 14, 2012.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 5, 2012

Paul Krugman on austerity

It is not often I agree with Paul Krugman. This is one of the few.

….not that I am in favor of big government.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 4, 2012

UK & Europe warn of primary down-trend

The FTSE 100 is testing medium-term support at 5250. Failure would mean another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Declining 63-Day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX broke medium-term support at 6200, penetration of the rising trendline warning that the up-trend is weakening. Expect a test of primary support at 5400. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.

DAX Index

The broader Dow Jones Europe Index is already testing primary support at 210. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) indicates strong selling pressure. Expect failure of support to signal a primary down-trend.

DAX Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

EconoMonitor » U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?

China wants to develop what it sees as key industries by giving Chinese companies a leg up in both the Chinese and global market. Its trading partners don’t want to see their firms placed at a disadvantage, and in several cases have challenged Chinese policies. China is challenging them right back, arguing that those countries do the same thing, and that people who live in protectionist glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. If they do, China can match them “tit for tat.” (A similar battle involving cross-accusations and threats between the EU and China began unfolding this week — you can read about it here).

There’s a critical difference, though, between China and its trade partners. They all may both have policies that can be called protectionist, but they come from different starting points. In the U.S., trade restrictions and subsidies tend to be the exception to the rule, and when they do occur, are usually transparent. There’s a public approval process and an overt policy that can be challenged at WTO. In China, restrictions and subsidies are pervasive, due to the large state role in the economy, and often hard to pin down.

via EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro broke primary support at $1.26 against the greenback. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2010 low at $1.19/$1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is consolidating between €1.2350 and €1.2600 against the euro. Reversal below the lower trend channel would warn of a correction, while breakout above €1.2600 would signal continuation of the primary advance. Completion of a bearish divergence on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen a bear signal.

Pound sterling/Euro

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.