Russia & Former USSR Archives - Page 7 of 15

October 23, 2014

Russia’s Ruble in a world of pain

Russia’s ruble is in a world of pain, having lost one-third of its value against the Dollar over the last 40 months. The down-trend is accelerating, emphasized by two large 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below the zero line.

RUBUSD

Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner and has no way out but to escalate. His current strategy in Eastern Europe of one-step-back-two-steps-forward is becoming predictable and the European Union is likely to run out of patience, responding with further sanctions. Increasingly threatening behavior in the Baltic is also unlikely to intimidate, merely strengthening alliances and resolve.

George Soros on the Ukraine crisis:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/525183504066560000

Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt seems to agree:

"Ukraine’s Vote, Russia’s Fate" by @carlbildt http://t.co/HfENdCm0Uh

— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) October 22, 2014

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard weighs in on Russia’s economic woes:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Russia is weaker now than decaying Soviet Union before collapse | via @Telegraph http://t.co/qmnrX5ffHT

— Colin Twiggs (@Colin_Twiggs) October 23, 2014

October 21, 2014

In Milan, Germany’s leader strikes the right note on Russian sanctions | Washington Post

Opinion from the Washington Post:

To her credit, Ms. Merkel is staking out a firm position, perhaps because she has spent more time than any other Western leader talking to Mr. Putin about Ukraine. On Monday she said, “There’s a long way to a cease-fire, unfortunately,” and added that Russia would have to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity “not just on paper” before sanctions could be lifted. That added weight to comments last week by Secretary of State John F. Kerry, who — even as he tried to promote U.S.-Russian cooperation on other issues — said Russia would have to withdraw “heavy equipment” and allow its border with Ukraine “to be properly monitored and secured” to win sanctions relief.

Mr. Putin is unlikely ever to meet those terms. To do so would doom Novorossiya, which can’t survive without military and material support from Russia. As the sanctions bite, he is as liable to escalate his aggression as to offer concessions….

Further escalation is not likely — it’s inevitable. Decisive action now will save much pain later. Read Putin’s Coup, Ben Judah’s piece on how Vladimir Putin has consolidated his hold on power. The parallels with Germany’s NSDAP in the 1930s are chilling — using fear to quell dissent.

October 8, 2014

It’s Time To Drive Russia Bankrupt — Again

Interesting view from Louis Woodhill on Forbes:

Over the past 64 years, real gold prices have averaged $544.91/oz in 4Q2013 dollars, and real crude oil prices have averaged $38.85 bbl. This means that an ounce of gold will typically buy about 14 barrels of oil.

If we fully stabilized the dollar today, we could expect gold prices to fall toward $550/oz, and oil prices to fall toward $40.00/bbl. The huge dollar premiums that gold and oil currently command reflect the value that these easy-to-store commodities have as hedges against dollar instability. If we reformed our monetary control system to guarantee the real value of the dollar, we would eliminate this risk. The risk premiums currently enjoyed by oil and gold would then decline toward zero, as the new monetary system gained credibility.

Are the current gold and oil premiums simply a hedge against an unstable dollar?

October 7, 2014

Anna Politkovskaya & Alexander Litvinenko

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/519381785080524801

Alexander Valterovich Litvinenko (1962 – 2006) was a fugitive officer of the Russian FSB secret service who specialised in tackling organised crime. In November 1998, Litvinenko and several other FSB officers publicly accused their superiors of ordering the assassination of the Russian tycoon and oligarch Boris Berezovsky. Litvinenko was arrested twice before fleeing to the United Kingdom where he was granted asylum.

During his time in London, Litvinenko wrote two books, Blowing Up Russia: Terror from Within and Lubyanka Criminal Group, wherein he accused the Russian secret services of staging the Russian apartment bombings and other terrorism acts in an effort to bring Vladimir Putin to power. He also accused Putin of ordering the murder in October 2006 of the Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised in what was established as a case of poisoning by radioactive polonium-210, resulting in his death on 23 November. A British murder investigation pointed to Andrey Lugovoy, a member of Russia’s Federal Protective Service, as the prime suspect. The United Kingdom requested the extradition of Lugovoy, but the request was refused.

Extracted from Wikipedia.

September 29, 2014

Ukrainian Soldiers Provide More Evidence of Russian Military Participation in Eastern Ukraine

Matthew Aid reports that captured Ukrainian soldiers offer new evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine:

Stepping out of a bus on at dusk on Sunday during a prisoner exchange, Alexei Koshelenko said he was captured during heavy fighting on Aug. 24-25 near the town of Ilovaysk, east of the separatist stronghold of Donetsk…..

“We were hit by multiple rocket launcher Grads and after that the troops just swept us away. We were completed defeated within 20 minutes. Many of us were killed, others are missing,” Koshelenko told reporters.”They were Russians,” he said, standing among unshaven and exhausted-looking soldiers being counted before the swap was completed. Referring to a city 300 km 200 miles northeast of Moscow, he said: “They said they were an airborne assault battalion from Kostroma.”

September 27, 2014

“The Russians fear us far more than we fear them” | Nigel Farage

Not often I agree with Nigel Farage, but his prescient 2008 warning about Russia and the Ukraine makes you wonder about EU foreign policy:

September 27, 2014

Trouble in the East

Expect a continued arm wrestle between Russia and the West over influence in the Ukraine. Russians obviously view their shrinking sphere of influence as a threat to future security. But Vladimir Putin’s actions in Georgia, Moldova, Crimea and the Ukraine — straight from the KGB playbook — are the biggest threat to their security.

A war-weary US and pacifist Europe may be slow to react, but their capacity when provoked to subdue any threat from the East, through their combined economic might, is immense. One should not be fooled by Putin’s macho posturing. He is playing a very weak hand.

September 26, 2014

China’s Deadly Miscalculation… | RealClearDefense

From Joseph A. Bosco, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

Effective deterrence requires both the will and the capabilities — and the proper communication to the adversary that we are armed with both.

…several U.S. China experts publicly say otherwise, that the U.S. would not and should not intervene. Such talk, taken with other factors, encourages China’s planners to reach the same conclusion. I believe they are wrong, but a major strategic miscalculation is in the making — not because of U.S. capabilities, which are far more than adequate, but because of the perception of the lack of U.S. will.

Without the credible threat of war, the world becomes a dangerous place, with rogue states invading other territories in the belief that a response is unlikely.

As Henry Kissinger says of the Korean War, “We did not expect the attack; China did not expect our response.” Of such miscalculation, devastating wars are made.

It is evident that US foreign policy is based on President Theodore Roosevelt’s maxim: “speak softly, and carry a big stick.” But you must demonstrate that you are prepared to use the stick for it to be an effective deterrent.

Margaret Thatcher (Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World) put it in a nutshell:

“Interventions must be limited in number and overwhelming in their impact.”

September 25, 2014

Is Russia making preparations for a great war? | OSW

Andrzej Wilk asks “Is Russia preparing for a large-scale war?”

In total, these armed exercises involve over 200,000 soldiers and several thousand combat vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and about a hundred ships…… military spending has become the undisputed priority of Russia’s financial policy. For 2015, this will reach the value of 4.0% of GDP (compared to 3.5% of GDP in 2014), a rise of more than 10% in real terms (to a level of at least US$84 billion). The increase in the Russian army’s activity and military spending is being accompanied by an information campaign which is increasingly intense, and is being channelled to meet public expectations, according to which Russia must defend itself against the aggression of the West.

….At present, it is increasingly relevant to question whether the spiral of militarisation which the Kremlin has set in motion has already reached the point of no return. The only way out in such a situation would be, in the best case, to achieve a spectacular success along the lines of Russia reducing the whole of Ukraine to a vassal state… and in the worst case, for Moscow to start a war on a far bigger scale than its actions in Georgia in 2008, or currently in Ukraine.

September 24, 2014

The risks in a galvanized Nato | Business New Europe

From Mark Galeotti, Professor of Global Affairs at New York University:

…Of course, Nato still has a role, not least to ensure there is no temptation for rather more robust pressure from Moscow on Europe. But to think that it can or even should try to respond to the full range of challenges of the new age of conflict is foolish — and even dangerous.

First of all, the task of inoculating bordering states from potential Russian mischief — whether stirring up disgruntled minorities, subtle destabilization or unsubtle economic pressure — is more properly handled by other agencies. National governments, obviously, need to pay more attention to what, in military terms, would be called “target hardening.” Those minorities need to be integrated, due diligence should identify flanking Russian buyouts, political finance regulated. The trouble is that this means not just taking action now that Russia looks problematic, but sustaining it — turning away potential investment, alienating a neighbor and so on — even when things look quieter.

Of course, the EU could also play a positive role here, but to date the EU’s capacity to mobilize and maintain this kind of action is also questionable. But the second serious concern is that the more Nato eases itself comfortably back into its role as the defender of the West from the Russian hordes, the more it consolidates the current dangerous and zero-sum confrontation. It also plays to a nationalist, even xenophobic constituency within the Russian elite, especially strongly represented within the security agencies and the Orthodox Church, who actually appreciate any opportunity to cut themselves off from the West and its dangerously infectious notions of egalitarianism, transparency and rule of law. This faction is currently in the ascendant, but it need not be so, especially given the evident concerns of many within the Russian business community at the prospect of being locked away from the West.

This is the challenge. Nato patently still has a role. But it is far too blunt an instrument to be able to deal with the range of subtle, deniable or downright devious tactics Russia would deploy. Instead, the West will have to develop new, more appropriate defenses — and try to avoid playing into the hands of the ultra-nationalist wing in the Kremlin happy to find excuses to see their country surrounded and beleaguered.