Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture
Forty three months after the recession began in January 2008, almost 5% of the labor force remains unemployed. In 7 of the eleven recessions since World War II, all the jobs lost during the recession were filled within 24 months. What’s happening in this ‘recovery’ is simply unprecedented.
European Crisis Primer: Where Things Stand – WSJ
The crucial talks between the European Union-European Central Bank-International Monetary Fund “Troika” with the Greek government remain on hold as Greece pulls together another six billion euros in cuts and taxes to hit its promised 2011 target. At stake is the next eight-billion-euro bailout payment, without which Greece goes broke within weeks.
via European Crisis Primer: Where Things Stand – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate
The Consumer Sentiment Survey of Americans, created by George Katona at the University of Michigan in the early 1950’s, and known today as the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, has included a remarkable question about the reasonably long-term future, five years hence, and asks about visceral fears concerning that period:
“Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely – that in the country as a whole we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?”
That question is usually not singled out for attention, but it appears spot-on for what we really want to know: what deep anxieties and fears do people have that might inhibit their willingness to spend for a long time. The answers to that question might well help us forecast the future outlook much more accurately.
Those answers plunged into depression territory between July and August, and the index of optimism based on answers to this question is at its lowest level since the oil-crisis-induced “great recession” of the early 1980’s…..
This is a much bigger downswing than was recorded in the overall consumer-confidence indices. The decline occurred over the better part of a decade, as we began to see the end of debt-driven overexpansion, and accelerated with the latest debt crisis.
The timing and substance of these consumer-survey results suggest that our fundamental outlook about the economy, at the level of the average person, is closely bound up with stories of excessive borrowing, loss of governmental and personal responsibility, and a sense that matters are beyond control. That kind of loss of confidence may well last for years.
via The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate.
Euro-Zone Economy in Retreat – WSJ.com
The euro-zone PMI for September slid 1.5 points to 49.2, according to data provider Markit, signaling contraction by falling below the 50 mark for the first time since July 2009. The new-orders component of the survey also declined, suggesting further weakness ahead.
China manufacturing data paint weak picture – MarketWatch
HSBC’s preliminary China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or “flash” PMI, fell to a two-month low in September, indicating a broadening slowdown in the Chinese economy, with industrial output swinging from a modest expansion to a deterioration.
via China manufacturing data paint weak picture – Economic Report – MarketWatch.
China’s Big Four banks reportedly see big outflows – MarketWatch
China’s four biggest banks are seeing a big outflow of deposits…….. a large portion of the CNY420 billion of deposits may have flowed to the high-yielding private lending markets, which have grown rapidly in recent months due to the strong borrowing demand from small businesses…….Borrowing rates in the private lending markets are typically 10 times the benchmark deposit rates, the report said. China’s one-year benchmark deposit rate stands at 3.5% now.
via China’s Big Four banks reportedly see big outflows – MarketWatch.
…A sign that monetary tightening is starting to bite.
The Dow tests key support at 10600
Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing support at 10600; failure would add final confirmation of the bear market signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (holding below zero).
* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000
Aussie Dollar breaks parity as commodities fall
The CRB Commodities Index gapped down to its lower trend channel in response to turmoil in Europe and the resulting stronger dollar.
The Aussie followed its Canadian counterpart below parity, confirming a primary down-trend with an initial target of $0.94*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94
Yen super-trend continues
The dollar continues its downward 30-year super-trend against the yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) appears unable to support the dollar at current levels and breakout below ¥80 warns of a decline to ¥70*.
* Target calculation: 80 – ( 90 – 80 ) = 70