Category: Countries & Regions

Posted on

Fedex reflects slowing economy

A 30 percent decline on the Fedex weekly chart reflects the slowing rate of economic activity. Recovery above resistance at $70 suggests another bear market rally, but the primary trend is down. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates long-term selling pressure.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 70 – (80 – 70 ) = 60

The weekly chart of Deutsche Post AG indicates similar weakness in Europe. We may see a rally test resistance at €11.00 but the primary trend is down and reversal below €9.00 would offer a target of €7.00*.

Deutsche Post DHL

* Target calculation: 9 – ( 11 – 9 ) = 7

Posted on

IMF stress tests China/Australia bust – macrobusiness.com.au

I don’t wish to be too alarming. These are stress tests and scenarios not yet reality. But, there is logic in the thought that we currently face the possibility of the final two scenarios happening simultaneously. That is, a Western recession triggered by European and US austerity (not to mention financial tumult) and a Chinese real estate pop.

via IMF stress tests China/Australia bust – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Posted on

Merkel, Sarkozy Claim Broad Agreement to Shore Up Banks – WSJ.com

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Sunday that they have reached broad agreement on a plan to shore up Europe’s battered banks and restore stability to the euro zone.Speaking to reporters in the Berlin chancellery ahead of a working dinner as aides and ministers from both governments looked on, Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy provided few details of the plan, pledging to unveil a comprehensive solution to the nearly two-year-old euro zone debt crisis by the end of the month. The plan will include a sweeping recapitalization of European banks endangered by a possible sovereign default in Greece as well as changes to existing European treaties to accelerate integration of the 17 euro-zone countries.

via Merkel, Sarkozy Claim Broad Agreement to Shore Up Banks – WSJ.com.

Posted on

“It’s Hard To Be Optimistic”: Political Ideology Blocking Good Policy – Michael Spence

“It’s hard to be optimistic,” says NYU professor and Nobel laureate Michael Spence. “There’s huge disagreements. Important policy issues are being held hostage to other things.” – Yahoo Finance from September 23, 2011.

[gigya src=”http://d.yimg.com/nl/techticker/breakout/player.swf” width=”576″ height=”324″ quality=”high” wmode=”transparent” allowFullScreen=”true” flashVars=”vid=26714533&repeat=true&browseCarouselUI=hide&”]

Posted on

U.S. Consumer Credit Fell $9.5 Billion in August, Biggest Drop in a Year – Bloomberg

Consumer credit in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in August by the most in over a year. The $9.5 billion decrease followed an $11.9 billion increase the previous month, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Non-revolving credit, which includes student loans and financing for automobile purchases, slumped by the most in three years. Decreasing credit shows American households are either continuing to pay down debt or lack the confidence to boost spending on non-essential goods.

via U.S. Consumer Credit Fell $9.5 Billion in August, Biggest Drop in a Year – Bloomberg.

Posted on

One down five to go

I say this rather flippantly as we are in the middle of a bear market, and I do not believe we are ready, but a reader asked what it would take to signal a bull market. My answer: three decent blue candles on the weekly chart followed by a correction of at least two red candles that respects the preceding low. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index displays a blue candle with a long tail, signaling buying support. That would qualify as candle #1.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

There is no supporting divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow to signal a change in the underlying selling pressure. Reversal to an up-trend is unlikely but would take a rally of at least 3 blue candles to break resistance at 1250 followed by a correction that finishes above 1100 — and re-crosses 1250. What is more likely is a failed attempt or false break at 1250 followed by penetration of support at 1100, signaling a decline to 1000/950*.

Posted on

Payrolls Rise as Striking Workers Return – WSJ.com

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000 in September as the private sector added 137,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Friday in its survey of employers. Payrolls data for the previous two months were revised up by a total 99,000 to show 57,000 jobs were added in August and 127,000 jobs in July. However, the September payrolls data was boosted by a one-time event: 45,000 telecom workers returning to their jobs following a strike at Verizon Communications Inc. in August.

Highlighting the stubborn weakness of the labor market, the unemployment rate—which is obtained from a separate household survey—was stuck at 9.1% for the third month in a row.

via Payrolls Rise as Striking Workers Return – WSJ.com.

Posted on

America’s Debt Crisis: Why Europe Is Right and Obama Is Wrong – SPIEGEL ONLINE

American economists, central bankers and fiscal policy makers have reinterpreted British economist John Maynard Keynes’s clever idea that government spending is the best way to counteract a serious economic downturn — and have turned it into a permanent prescription. In their version of the Keynesian theory, declining growth or tumbling stock prices should prompt central banks to lower interest rates and governments to come to the rescue with economic stimulus programs. US economists call this “kick-starting” the economy.

….The only problem is that this method of encouraging growth has not stimulated the US economy in recent years, but in fact has put it on a crash course. From the Asian economic crisis to the Internet and subprime mortgage bubbles, economic stimulus programs by monetary and fiscal policy makers have regularly laid the groundwork for the next crash instead of encouraging sustainable growth. In the last decade, the volume of lending in the United States grew five times as fast as the real economy.

via America’s Debt Crisis: Why Europe Is Right and Obama Is Wrong – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

With thanks to Barry Ritholz

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance Service By Website Helper