Countries & Regions Archives - Page 307 of 375

February 13, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 index has been hesitant since the breach of its descending trendline. A bottom may be forming, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns us not to expect much upside any time soon. Respect of the rising (green) trendline would indicate another test of 4400, while penetration would mean another test of primary support at 4000*.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

A 2-hour chart shows the index headed for another test of resistance at 4310 on Monday. But momentum is falling and respect of 4310 would suggest a correction to 4000.

ASX 200 Index 2 Hour Candlesticks

February 13, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing resistance at 9000 but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of long-term sellers. Breakout would offer a target of 10000, while reversal below 8000 would signal a decline to 7000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 10000

Seoul’s Composite Index broke through resistance but is now retracing to test the new support level at 1950. Respect of the rising trendline on the weekly chart, and respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, would both strengthen the bull signal. Target for the advance is 2150*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

February 13, 2012

Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index broke through resistance at 20000 to signal a primary up-trend but is likely to first retrace to test the new support level. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed above zero to strengthen the bull signal — and respect of the rising trendline would confirm the new up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The Shanghai Composite index broke out of its descending trend channel, indicating that the down-trend has weakened and a bottom is forming. A sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect resistance around the previous peak of 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

February 13, 2012

India and Singapore bullish

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 18000, while a sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong (medium-term) buying support. Breakout would offer a target of 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

NSE/S&P Nifty Index is similarly testing resistance at 5400. Target for a breakout would be 6200*.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

The Singapore Straits Times index has broken through resistance at 2900. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 3200*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

February 13, 2012

UK and Europe

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 5750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 5600 would warn of a bull trap, while respect would confirm the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5750 + ( 5750 – 5100 ) = 6400

Dow Jones Europe Index is consolidating below resistance at 260. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 260 would signal a primary advance to 310*, while reversal below 240 and the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

February 13, 2012

Canada: TSX 60 retreats

Canada’s TSX 60 index retreated to test support at 700. Failure would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 715 would confirm the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 715 + ( 715 – 645 ) = 785

February 12, 2012

Dow and S&P 500 test key resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 12800. A large bearish divergence would be completed if 13-week Twiggs Money Flow retreated below 10% — and would warn of a bull trap. Reversal below medium-term support at 12300 and the rising trendline would also warn of trend weakness, while respect of these levels would indicate a primary advance to 13400*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 12300 + ( 12300 – 11200 ) = 13400

The S&P 500 displays similar weakness on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, but rising 63-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates trend strength. Breakout above 1370 would indicate an advance to 1450*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 made a strong breakout above 2400, indicating a primary up-trend. Expect a retracement to test the new support level (2400); respect would confirm the up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

February 12, 2012

Chinese imports tank – macrobusiness.com.au

Zarathustra: [Chinese] imports contracted by 15.3% from a year earlier, which was well below the expected 3.6% contraction. On a month-on-month basis, exports fell by 14.2% and imports fell by 22.5% before seasonal adjustment:

Chinese imports tank - macrobusiness.com.au

via Chinese imports tank – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

February 9, 2012

Australia: Credit growth

Latest stats from the RBA show that the sharp contraction in business credit has slowed, but growth of personal credit (mainly mortgage finance) is at its lowest rate since the early 1990s and is trending downwards. Credit growth does not have to fall below zero for it to have a negative impact on the economy. A fall in the rate of credit expansion will slow the rate of economic growth.

Australian Credit Growth

February 9, 2012

Westpac: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

It appears that the objective of this Statement is to emphasise that without a significant deterioration in global financial conditions policy should remain unchanged. When you assess the various pieces of the Bank’s description of the domestic economy – weak employment; rising unemployment rate; subdued retail spending; soft housing market; below trend growth outside mining; scaling back of public investment; building construction subdued; inflation to remain around the mid-point of the target range; policy at neutral, not stimulatory – we see a fairly clear case for policy to move into the stimulatory zone immediately. Of course our forecasts as contrasted with the Bank’s forecasts clearly suggest that the qualitative descriptions provided in this statement are understating the need for a policy response.

It has been and remains our view that a further 50bps in policy easing can be justified immediately although our forecast is that this adjustment is likely to occur over a three to four month period. We find the use of the requirement that demand conditions need to weaken materially before a rate cut can be delivered overly conservative and expect that the Bank’s policy will change more rapidly than we assess is their current intention.

Consequently at this stage we maintain our view that the next rate cut in this cycle can be expected in March to be followed by a move in May but recognise that we are currently dealing with a central bank that while acknowledging all the reasons policy needs to be stimulatory appears to have no immediate intention to move.

Bill Evans
Chief Economist