Countries & Regions Archives - Page 288 of 369

April 1, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 advances

The ASX 200 broke medium-term resistance at 4300, indicating an advance to 4400. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4400 would confirm, offering an initial target of 4800*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

The biggest obstacle to an ASX up-trend is weakness in China. Signs that a bottom is forming would boost the ASX but that is not evident at present.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

March 31, 2012

Australia: Super fund returns

Overall, for the 15 years to June 2011, the average ROR for the superannuation industry was positive, with a 15-year average ROR of 5.2 per cent per annum. The average industry-wide ROR, when adjusted for the 2.7 per cent per annum inflation, provided a real return of 2.5 per cent per annum.

Most funds which existed for the whole period had a 15-year average fund-level ROR of between 3.9 and 6.5 per cent per annum.

APRA: Annual Superannuation Bulletin (June 2011)

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound & Yen

The Euro is headed for another test of resistance at $1.35. Breakout would signal an initial advance to $1.40. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend.

EUR/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.30 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling displays a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.60. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Initial target for the breakout would be $1.64.

GBP/USD

* Target calculation: 1.60 + ( 1.60 – 1.56 ) = 1.64

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen, testing medium-term support at ¥82. A short retracement is likely and respect of support at ¥82 would signal another strong advance.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 82 ) = 86

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: CAD, AUD, ZAR

Canada’s Loonie continues a narrow consolidation below $1.01, suggesting an upward breakout in response to higher oil prices. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance. Target for the advance would be the 2011 high of $1.06. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal.

CAD/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar reflects broader weakness in commodities. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to test primary support at $0.96, while respect would indicate another test of $1.08 — and suggest an upward breakout.

AUD/USD

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00. Narrow consolidation suggests a downward breakout and test of the long-term trendline at R7.50. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUD/ZAR

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 27, 2012

Budget 2012: George Osborne averts a slow national rot – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The underlying ghastliness of the British predicament remains. [Government] Spending as a share of GDP has ratcheted up from 35pc at the end of the 1990s to the Brownian peak of 51.7pc in 2009 (Eurostat), an all-time high in peace-time. It came back slightly to 50.4pc in 2010.

This debacle happened over a decade when a string of countries were slimming down the Leviathan state. Germany and Holland are now leaner than Britain.

Eurostat’s total government spending as a share of GDP for 2010 (the latest available) shows:

France 56.6
Sweden 52.7
UK 50.4
Italy 50.3
Germany 47.9
Norway 45.8
Switzerland 34.2

The US, Japan, Canada, and Korea are all much lower, and China is much lower yet.

This state burden is the macro-economic killer. It is a far more relevant than the tax take as a share of the economy, since it includes borrowing (ie deferred taxation).

via Budget 2012: George Osborne averts a slow national rot – Telegraph Blogs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 26, 2012

ASX 200 response

Australia’s ASX 200 opened with a strong blue candle on the hourly chart but is now retracing to find support. Respect of short-term support at 4290 would suggest follow-through to 4320, while failure would test medium-term support at 4240/4250.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 4320 would indicate another test of 4400. Though we are unlikely to see a primary up-trend until China signals that it has formed a bottom.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 26, 2012

S&P 500 early rally

The S&P 500 surprised with an early rally, before the end of the quarter. Breach of resistance at 1415 on the hourly chart signals a new primary advance. Short retracement indicates a healthy up-trend — as does a trough above the zero line on 24-hour (4 day) Twiggs Momentum.

S&P 500 Index Hourly Chart

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above 30% would negate this. Immediate target for the advance is 1450, while the long-term target is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450; 1350 + (1350 – 1100) =1600

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 24, 2012

ASX 200 hesitant

Australia’s ASX 200 index displays stubborn resistance at 4300, but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 4650 and a long-term target of 4950*. The right-angled broadening pattern reflects weak support and downward breakout would test primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3850 ) = 4950

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 24, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index also shows a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, warning of a correction. The next medium-term support level below 10000 is the former resistance level at 9000, so there could be a fairly sharp fall. But the primary trend is up and recovery above 10200 would signal an advance to 11000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10 + ( 10 – 9 ) = 11

Despite global weakness, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to test resistance at 2050. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of 1950, but recovery above 2050 would signal an advance to 2250*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1650 ) = 2250

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 24, 2012

Hong Kong & China correction

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is retracing after a sharp bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. The longer term 13-week indicator, however, suggests no more than a secondary correction. Breach of the rising trendline, however, would warn that the trend is losing momentum.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500

The Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test support at 2300. Failure would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend, while respect would suggest that a base is forming. A further peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would signal another decline.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.