Countries & Regions Archives - Page 288 of 372

April 19, 2012

Reserve Bank Governor greets Clarke and Dawe ~ ABC 7.30

Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, meets Clarke and Dawe and responds to criticism from union leader Paul Howes.

BRYAN DAWE: Mr Howes says the Reserve Bank has the wrong interest rate policy and fears for job in industry.

JOHN CLARKE: Does he? Does he say why?

BRYAN DAWE: He says the cost of Australian goods are too high.

JOHN CLARKE: Is the term “cost of labour” used at any point in his no-doubt-penetrating analysis of what the adults are thinking about in the other room?…..

via 7.30 – ABC.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 19, 2012

Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 19, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen

The Euro is consolidating above support at $1.30. Failure would test primary support at $1.26. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend. In the long term, failure of $1.26 would signal a decline to the 2010 low of $1.19/$1.20*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

Pound Sterling is consolidating below resistance at $1.60. Upward breakout would indicate an advance to the 2011 high of $1.67 — confirmed if resistance at $1.62 is penetrated — while failure of short-term support at $1.58 would warn of another test of primary support at $1.53. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend; but this would only be confirmed by breakout above $1.62.

Pound Sterling

The US Dollar is testing support at ¥80, against the Japanese Yen. Respect is likely and recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance. Penetration of resistance at ¥84 would confirm the primary up-trend already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 18, 2012

Sowing Seeds of the Next Major Crisis – WSJ News Hub

Francesco Guerrera: “Prolonged intervention by the authorities is creating fundamental distortions in the financial markets. They are in my view going to create the next crisis.”

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 17, 2012

John Mauldin: Hoisington Q1 Review and Outlook

John Mauldin: Lacy Hunt kicks things off with a bang in Hoisington’s Quarterly Review and Outlook, this week’s Outside the Box:

“The standard of living of the average American continues to fall.”

The reason, in a word: debt. Lacy explains what happens:
“Efforts by fiscal and monetary authorities to sustain growth by further debt accumulation may produce some short-term benefit. Sadly, these interludes fade quickly as the debt becomes more destabilizing. The net result of increased indebtedness then becomes the opposite of what policymakers intend when they promote economic growth by either borrowing funds for increased government expenditures or encourage consumers to borrow with artificial and temporary incentives.”

In other words, you can’t get to real, sustained growth of an economy by growing debt after a certain point — one that, sadly, we have already reached.

John Mauldin: Hoisington Q1 Review and Outlook.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Dems Lay Trap for GOP with Buffett Rule

Do Top Earners Pay Too Little?

Taxpayers earning more than $1 million a year pay an average U.S. income tax rate of nearly 19 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center. The top individual tax rate is 35 percent. Loopholes and other deductions help lower that rate so that most Americans pay a much lower effective rate. A middle-income earner making between $50,000 and $75,000 pays an average 5.7 percent effective rate, while a low-income worker making between $10,000 and $20,000 pays no income tax. Effective rates vary wildly within income groups, however, with some people paying far less than average and some far more.

Critics say this underscores the need for a minimum tax….

via Dems Lay Trap for GOP with Buffett Rule.

Comment:~ I would say this underscores the need to scrap the income tax model which ends up with “some people paying far less than average and some far more” and to impose a flat value-added tax (consumption tax) of around 15%. Impact on the poor could be reduced through subsidies — not tax exemptions which are an administrative nightmare — of basic foodstuffs and other necessities.

Interesting that the proposed “Buffett Tax” would only raise $47 billion if imposed on taxpayers earning more than $1 million. Less than 4 percent of the annual $1.2 trillion federal budget deficit that it is supposed to solve.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Europe’s Economic Suicide – NYTimes.com

Paul Krugman: If European leaders really wanted to save the euro they would be looking for an alternative course. And the shape of such an alternative is actually fairly clear. The Continent needs more expansionary monetary policies, in the form of a willingness — an announced willingness — on the part of the European Central Bank to accept somewhat higher inflation; it needs more expansionary fiscal policies, in the form of budgets in Germany that offset austerity in Spain and other troubled nations around the Continent’s periphery, rather than reinforcing it. Even with such policies, the peripheral nations would face years of hard times. But at least there would be some hope of recovery.

What we’re actually seeing, however, is complete inflexibility. In March, European leaders signed a fiscal pact that in effect locks in fiscal austerity as the response to any and all problems. Meanwhile, key officials at the central bank are making a point of emphasizing the bank’s willingness to raise rates at the slightest hint of higher inflation.

via Europe’s Economic Suicide – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

EconoMonitor : Last Days of Rome » How America Builds Its Way Back to Balance

Michael Moran: While China excels at building and even incrementally improving established product lines like GM’s Buicks and countless other Western and Japanese goods manufactured there, it has struggled to innovate. Even in 2010, the year China officially overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy, no Chinese brand could viably be called a household name in any Asian market, let alone in the wider world. The annual global branding study by the market research firm TNS found in 2010 that, while consumer brands from Denmark, Finland, South Korea, and Switzerland make the top 20, no Chinese product or brand appeared in the top 1,000.

……China can claw its way up the value-added food chain and move its companies beyond the goal of building a better, cheaper Buick and into the high-end, high-margin markets for software, aerospace, robotics, and sophisticated engineering currently dominated by the United States, Europe, and Japan. But the progress to date has been almost impossible to measure, and the country’s substandard educational system, demographic and political challenges, and corruption suggest that this will be more of a Long March than a Great Leap Forward.

via EconoMonitor : Last Days of Rome » How America Builds Its Way Back to Balance.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Japan & South Korea: strong buying pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index reflects strong buying support, with a long tail on last week’s candle. Recovery above 10000 would signal an advance to 11000*, the gap between the low (9400) and medium-term support at 9000 indicating strong buying pressure. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum confirms a strong primary up-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10 + ( 10 – 9 ) = 11

Dow Jones South Korea Index is holding above medium-term support at 425. Follow-through above 445 would confirm the advance to 480*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respecting zero (from above) indicates a strong primary up-trend.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 420 + ( 420 – 360 ) = 480

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

India & Singapore

Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index for India closed below support at 1800, warning of another correction, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 1900 would signal an advance to 2100*.

Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index - India

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

BSE Sensex Index is testing support at 17000. Downward breakout would indicate another test of primary support at 15000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line, however, would signal strong buying pressure. And recovery above the medium-term (orange) descending trendline would indicate a fresh primary advance, breakout above 18000 confirming the primary up-trend.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18 + ( 18 – 15 ) = 21

Singapore Straits Times Index continues to test resistance at 3000. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero confirms the primary up-trend. Follow-through above 3050 would signal an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2600 – 2500 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.