Singapore’s Straits Times Index gapped above resistance at 3000 today, confirming the primary up-trend, and is currently trading near 3020. Target for the initial advance is 3200*.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200
Canada TSX: Momentum trades
Bullish
- New Zealand Energy [NZ] ~ respected support at $3.00; breakout above $3.80 would confirm another primary advance.
- Rio Alto Mining [RIO] ~ narrow consolidation favors breakout above $4.70, signaling a new advance; support at $4.30.
- Roxgold [ROG] ~ good support at $1.90, breakout above $2.15 would signal a new advance.
Watch for breakout
- Tri-Oil Resources A [TOL] ~ narrow consolidation between $3.50 and $3.80 but strong bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow
- Argonaut Gold [AR] ~ strong resistance at $10.00, support at $9.00
- Atna Resources [ATN] ~ support at $1.25, resistance at $1.50.
- Northern Graphite [NGC] ~ 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero is bearish but ascending triangle below $2.20, breakout would signal a fresh advance.
- Pretium Resources [PVG] ~ breakout above $18.00 would signal continuation
- TAG Oil [TAO] ~ testing resistance at $10.00
- Americas Petrogas [BOE] ~ testing support at $4.00, respect would favor breakout above $4.50 and a fresh advance.
![Americas Petrogas [BOE]](https://i0.wp.com/www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2012/2012-03-12-ca-boe.png?w=1140&ssl=1)
- Coastal Energy [CEN] ~ recovered above $20.00, follow-through above $21.00 would confirm a fresh advance.
![Americas Petrogas [BOE]](https://i0.wp.com/www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2012/2012-03-12-ca-cen.png?w=1140&ssl=1)
Negative Watch
- Silvercrest Mines [SVL] ~ strong bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow followed by sharp drop to test support at $2.50.
- Madalena Ventures [MVN] ~ long correction, headed for test of $1.00.
Carmen Reinhart: Financial Repression – WSJ
Carmen Reinhart marks the rise of financial repression. “Faced with a private and public domestic debt overhang of historic proportions, policy makers will be preoccupied with debt reduction, debt management, and, in general, efforts to keep debt-servicing costs manageable. In this setting, financial repression in its many guises with its dual aims of keeping interest rates low and creating or maintaining captive domestic audiences will probably find renewed favor and will likely be with us for a long time.”
Australia: ASX 200
The ASX 200 Index continues to signal medium-term selling pressure with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow respecting the zero line (from below). Reversal below 4180 would suggest (and below 4150 confirm) a correction to test primary support at 4000.
Canada: TSX 60
Canada’s TSX 60 index found support at 700. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, holding above zero, continues to indicate buying pressure. Recovery above 720 would signal a primary advance to 790*.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
Europe: Signs of a revival
Europe shows signs of a revival. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing resistance at 260. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Target for the advance would be 310*.
* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310
FTSE 100 Index shows even stronger buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect the correction to respect support at 5600, followed by an advance to 6100.
* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5200 ) = 6200
US markets pause in anticipation of March sell-off
US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650
Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.
* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500
Forex: Euro and Yen weaken while Rand recovers
The Euro is retreating to test medium-term support at $1.30 on the weekly chart. Failure would mean a fall to primary support at $1.25/$1.26. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reinforces the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.25 – ( 1.35 – 1.25 ) = 1.15
Pound Sterling is ranging between $1.5650 and $1.6000 against the greenback. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of the opposite.
The dollar respected the new support level at 80 Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82 would confirm the primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥85.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00 South African Rand. Failure would offer an initial target of R7.50, at the rising trendline. Momentum is falling sharply and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.
Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities
The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.
Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.
Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Fed Weighs ‘Sterilized’ Bond Buying if It Acts – WSJ.com
JON HILSENRATH: Federal Reserve officials are considering a new type of bond-buying program designed to subdue worries about future inflation if they decide to take new steps to boost the economy in the months ahead. Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed’s previous efforts to aid the recovery.
Transactions like those under the third scenario are called “reverse repos.” A related program called “term deposits” also ties up short-term money held by banks. The effect of this approach is the same as Operation Twist: The Fed would hold more long-term bonds and investors and banks would get more short-term holdings in exchange.
via Fed Weighs ‘Sterilized’ Bond Buying if It Acts – WSJ.com.