Countries & Regions Archives - Page 275 of 369

May 31, 2012

Clarke and Dawe – A Great Man in a Crisis

“Bob Carr. Australian Foreign Minister.” Originally aired on ABC TV’s 7.30: 03/05/2012:

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 31, 2012

Clarke and Dawe – Australian Political Scientist

An irreverent look at Australian politics.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Bair: Regulators Should Tighten Volcker Rule – WSJ.com

Jamila Trindle: Regulators should push derivatives out of federally backed banks and tighten the Volcker rule, former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Thursday.

“Don’t let insured deposits fund that activity,” Ms. Bair said at a roundtable on the Volcker rule held by staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

via Bair: Regulators Should Tighten Volcker Rule – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Forex: Australia and Canada

Falling crude oil and commodity prices are likely to depress resource-rich currencies. Canada’s Loonie found support at $0.97 but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of $0.97 is likely and would test the primary level at $0.94/0.95.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 0.89

The Aussie Dollar is testing primary support at $0.96/0.97. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.96 would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro broke primary support at $1.26 against the greenback. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2010 low at $1.19/$1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is consolidating between €1.2350 and €1.2600 against the euro. Reversal below the lower trend channel would warn of a correction, while breakout above €1.2600 would signal continuation of the primary advance. Completion of a bearish divergence on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen a bear signal.

Pound sterling/Euro

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 breaks triangle

The monthly chart of the ASX 200 displays a downward breakout from the ascending triangle, forming since September 2011, offering a target of the 2008 low at 3200*. Reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also suggests continuation of the primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3800 – ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 3200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

India & Singapore

The BSE Sensex found medium-term support at 16000/15800 but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 15000/15200. Failure would offer a target of 12000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 15 – ( 18 − 15 ) = 12

With almost half of foreign bank funding sourced from Europe, India is experiencing significant tightening of external finance and hence domestic investment.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing medium-term support at 2750. Failure would test primary support at 2600. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a strong primary down-trend. Recovery above 2900 is unlikely but would indicate continuation of the primary up-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2600 – ( 2900 − 2600 ) = 2300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 30, 2012

How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less

Andy Xie, an independent economist in China, said European countries without a competitive advantage must simply work harder or spend less. Alternatively, if they want to keep living it up, they will have to accept wrenching labor reforms and deregulation.

Xie saw no popular consent for either course of action. Nor did he detect that Europe was tightening its belt as urgently as Asia did after its 1997/98 financial crisis. “While eurozone economies have contracted a bit, people seem to be bent on enjoying life as usual,” Xie wrote in New Century weekly, a Chinese publication. “China cannot save Europe. No one can. Only Europeans can, through increasing work relative to leisure.”

via How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 29, 2012

Spain's Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com

Spain’s economy showed fresh strain as retail sales fell at a record pace in April, showing the government’s austerity program is strangling consumption and suggesting deepening recession. Data Tuesday from the National Statistics Institute, or INE, showed seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 9.8% on the year in April, compared with a 3.8% drop in March. The decline was the sharpest since INE started collecting the data in January 2004. Household spending is dropping as unemployment approaches 25% of the work force.

via Spain’s Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 28, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 consolidation

Asia consolidated today and the ASX 200 was no exception, rallying off short-term support at 4020. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 4150 would indicate a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Failure of support would offer a target of 3600*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.