Countries & Regions Archives - Page 274 of 367

May 28, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq consolidate

The S&P 500 finished the week having twice respected support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1292/1296 on the hourly chart. Recovery above resistance at 1330 would indicate the end of the secondary correction.

S&P 500 Index Hourly Chart

21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 1290 remains likely and would test primary support at 1150.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 continues to test support at 2500. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure and reversal below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 27, 2012

Swiss Prepare Plans in Case of Euro's Demise – WSJ.com

Anita Greil: Switzerland is considering capital controls to fight a sharp rise in the Swiss franc in the event of a euro-zone collapse.

……In the 1970s, Switzerland used such extreme measures to curb excessive demand for its currency. The country prohibited foreign investments in Swiss securities and real estate, and introduced negative interest rates on foreign deposits. Both tools failed to stem the Swiss franc’s rise, which only halted after the central bank introduced a temporary peg to the deutsche mark, Germany’s currency at the time.

via Swiss Prepare Plans in Case of Euro’s Demise – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 24, 2012

Forex: Japanese Yen

The US Dollar broke support at ¥80 Japanese Yen and is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Failure of short-term support at ¥79 would indicate another test of primary support at ¥76. The long-term bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues, however, and a trough above zero would indicate a fresh primary advance. Breakout above ¥84 would confirm.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 24, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro is testing primary support at $1.26 against the greenback. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of support would test the 2010 low of $1.19/$1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling continues to test resistance at €1.26 against the euro. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum high above zero indicates a strong up-trend. Weak retracement which fails to test the new support level around €1.22 would indicate an accelerating/exponential up-trend.

Pound sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 – 1.22 ) = 1.30

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 24, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada, South Africa

Canada’s Loonie may be strengthening against the Aussie Dollar but is headed for another test of primary support at $0.95 against the greenback. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.95 would confirm.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.02 – 0.95 ) = 0.88

The Australian Dollar is following commodities lower, headed for a test of primary support at $0.96. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $0.96 would warn of a primary down-trend with a long-term target of $0.84. Recovery above $1.02 is unlikely but would indicate another test of $1.08.

Australian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84

The Australian Dollar respected resistance at R8.30 against the South African Rand. Expect another test of R7.90. Breach would warn of a decline to R7.50*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty and breakout above R8.30 would test long-term resistance at R8.50.

Australian Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 23, 2012

Commodities fall, stocks follow

The CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of the 2010 low of 250 after breaking primary support at 295. The trough below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to follow.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 23, 2012

Keen to be heard | BRW

Nick Gardner: In 2008, private debt in the US grew $4.1 trillion but in 2010 shrunk $2.85 trillion as banks decreased their lending as a result of the housing crash. When subtracted from GDP, this fall in debt equated to a 38 per cent reduction in aggregate demand, leading directly to the “great recession” and unemployment hitting its highest level in almost 30 years. “This is what people find so confusing,” says Keen. “When you look at GDP numbers in the US, they’re not bad. At the beginning of 2008, US GDP was $14.25 trillion and today it has GDP of $14.75 trillion. That’s stagnant growth but doesn’t explain the enormous depths of the US downturn. It only begins to makes sense when you look at the fall in aggregate demand.”

via Keen to be heard.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Hong Kong & China: Hang Seng breaks support

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fall below 20000 confirms the earlier primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. Expect a rally to test the new resistance level at 20000. Respect would indicate a decline to 17500. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Hang Seng Index

Dow Jones Shanghai Index is more resilient, respecting the rising trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Breakout above 310 would signal a primary up-trend, but penetration of the rising trendline would test primary support at 275.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 280 ) = 340; 280 – ( 310 – 280 ) = 250

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 rallied off secondary support at 4050. Respect of resistance at 4150 would signal a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Another 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below the zero line would strengthen the bear signal. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also warns of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of primary support at 8000 after breaking both support at 9000 and the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of 8000 would resume the primary down-trend, offering a long-term target of 6000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 6000

Dow Jones South Korea Index is retracing to test resistance at 425 after a sharp fall below the rising trendline. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 380 would confirm, signaling a decline to the 2011 low of 350.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.