Countries & Regions Archives - Page 249 of 374

October 23, 2012

Australia: Becoming a welfare-dependent state

Extract from an opinion by Robert Carling:

In democratic welfare states, the proportion of the electorate that attracts more in social benefits from government than it pays in tax has become so large that candidates who promise to curb the welfare state have a hard time winning elections.

The same issue has been raised in the United Kingdom, where a recent study by the Centre for Policy Studies revealed that 53.4% of households receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes……

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has compiled data on total taxes paid [including GST] and total social benefits (cash and in kind) received by households in 2009–10 classified into five slices (quintiles) from bottom to top according to their private income. The first three quintiles (that is, 60% of households) each received more in direct social benefits than they paid in taxes……

via Centre for Independent Studies: Self-sustaining leviathan.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

October 21, 2012

The Chicago Plan Revisited | IMF Working Paper

There is growing interest in this IMF Working Paper by Jaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof which discusses removing the role of monetary creation from fractional-reserve banks and assigning it to Treasury. Here is a brief abstract:

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher’s claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy…..

I believe that Fisher is right in targeting fractional-reserve banks as a major cause of instability in capitalist systems, facilitating rapid expansion of credit during booms, inevitably followed by rapid contraction during the bust. To introduce a system such as the Chicago Plan would risk an abrupt shock to the monetary system, but gradual increase of bank capital, leverage and reserve ratios could achieve the same eventual end without any noticeable side-effects.

via The Chicago Plan Revisited (pdf)

Hat tip to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 21, 2012

Wealthy Advised to Sell for Gains Before Unfriendly 2013 – Bloomberg

By Margaret Collins and Richard Rubin

Sell.

That’s the message from some financial advisers, who are telling wealthy clients that the remainder of 2012 amounts to a last-chance sale on federal tax rates. Taxes are set to rise in January in the U.S., pushing the top rate on dividends to 43.4 percent from 15 percent and the top rate on capital gains to 23.8 percent from 15 percent……

via Wealthy Advised to Sell for Gains Before Unfriendly 2013 – Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 19, 2012

US: Earnings scare

Disappointing quarterly earnings from Google, Microsoft, Intel, IBM and McDonald’s over the past week led to a sell-off on Friday. The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1430. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of renewed (medium-term) selling pressure — a peak below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 1430 would signal a correction; follow-through below 1420 would confirm.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing support at 13300 (weekly chart). Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a weakening up-trend, and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Reversal below 13000 and the primary trendline would suggest that a top is forming. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely but would indicate an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 18, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

The Euro rallied off support at $1.28 and is headed for resistance at $1.32. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.32 would confirm, offering an immediate target of the 2012 high at $1.35.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling is testing primary support at €1.23 against the euro. Breach would signal a primary down-trend. Target for the completed head and shoulders reversal would be $1.18*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Canada’s Loonie found strong support between $1.01 and $1.02 (USD). Breakout would indicate an advance to the 2011 highs at $1.06. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar found support at $1.02/$1.015 against the greenback. Expect another test of $1.06. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.06 would offer a target of the 2011 high at $1.10*, though there is bound to be some resistance at $1.08.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

China Inc waves a red flag on economic recovery | Reuters

By Vikram Subhedar

(Reuters) – Chinese corporate profits show no sign of a second-half recovery as analysts cut earnings estimates in September by the most in 2-1/2 years, a red flag for investors who expect the world’s second biggest economy to start picking up soon……

via China Inc waves a red flag on economic recovery | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

Canada: TSX60 testing support

The TSX 60 continues to test support at 695/700. Failure would signal a correction to 680 and the rising trendline, while respect of support would indicate another test of 718. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero warns of medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term (13-week) indicator remains bullish and completion of a higher (21-day) trough, by recovery above zero, would reflect the return of buyers. Breakout above 718 would indicate a primary up-trend, while follow-through above the 2012 high at 725 would strengthen the signal.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 640 ) = 810

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

Australia’s Future Fiscal Shock | Centre For Independent Studies

by Robert Carling

Long-term prospects for Australia’s public finances are not receiving the attention they deserve. It is one thing for Commonwealth and state governments to balance their budgets in the short term, as they are attempting to do, but spending commitments are being made as though nothing beyond the four-year horizon of the forward estimates matters. Under current policies, Australia is heading in the long term for a substantially larger share of government spending in the economy, which will bring pressures for higher taxation or borrowing or both. Spending by governments at all levels as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) (currently around 36%) could rise to well above 40% over the decades ahead, if not sooner…….

via Australia’s Future Fiscal Shock (pdf).

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

China’s export growth accelerated in September

by Zarathustra

China’s trade data for September show some improvement in growth. Export growth picked up to 9.9% yoy in September, up from 2.7% yoy in August, and better than consensus estimate fo 5.5% yoy…….

via China’s export growth accelerated in September.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

China iron-ore spot prices surge 30% in just weeks – MarketWatch

By MarketWatch

BEIJING–Iron ore spot prices for China delivery have surged nearly 30% since early September with mills replenishing stocks amid a tentative rebound in the steel sector, suggesting that a recent price decline may have bottomed out.

…..Prices for 63.5% iron ore fines delivered to Qingdao rose 29% from a multiyear low Sept. 7 to around $117 a metric ton Monday, data from The Steel Index showed……

via China iron-ore spot prices surge 30% in just weeks – MarketWatch.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.