S&P500 recovers as bond yields rise, but TSX weakens

10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.00%, confirming the primary up-trend. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend, but a rise to there would result in an almost 50% loss for bondholders. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover and the Fed will curtail further quantitative easing.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 respected support at 1600 and is headed for a test of the upper channel around 1700. Reversal below support at 1600 is now unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index
The VIX is rising, but remains in the green zone, below 20.

S&P 500 Index

The TSX Composite reversed below support at 12500, indicating weakness. Follow-through below last week’s low would suggest a test of primary support at 11900/12000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

Why Sweden Has Riots | Cato Institute

Johan Norberg explains why Sweden, with the lowest poverty rate (1.2%) in Europe, still experiences riots amongst disaffected, largely immigrant youth in parts of Stockholm:

……there is serious inequality in Sweden, but the divide is not so much between the rich and the poor as between those with jobs and those without. And frequently this is an ethnic divide. As the author Fredrik Segerfeldt points out in a new study, Sweden has the largest employment gap between natives and foreign-born of all the rich countries where data is available. Only 6.4 per cent of native Swedes are unemployed, but almost 16 per cent of the immigrants are…….. In Husby, where the riots started, 38 per cent of those under 26 neither study nor work.

So what’s to blame? The aspect of the Swedish social model that the government has not dared to touch: strong employment protection. By law, the last person to be hired must be the first person to be sacked. And if you employ someone longer than six months, the contract is automatically made permanent. A system intended to protect the workers has condemned the young to a succession of short-term contracts. Sweden’s high de facto minimum wage — around 70 per cent of the average wage — renders unemployed those whose skills are worth less than that. Sweden has the fewest low-wage, entry-level jobs in Europe. Just 2.5 per cent of Swedish jobs are on this level, compared to a European average of 17 per cent.

This highlights the paradox of strong labor laws intended to protect employment. They discourage permanent employment and create a two-tier society: those with permanent jobs and “permanent” casual-workers. High minimum wages, again do not guarantee that those with low skill-levels earn a decent wage. It guarantees that they will be unemployed and dependent on social welfare. Australia should take note.
Read more at Why Sweden Has Riots | Cato Institute.

Forex: Aussie falls but Euro and Yen unfazed

After a weak rally to $0.98, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $0.96, signaling a strong down-trend. Long-term target for the decline is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also likely to break support at $0.96, offering a long-term target of $0.82*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.06 – 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro, however, broke resistance at $1.30 and is headed for a test of $1.32. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1.36*. But respect of $1.32 would warn of a head and shoulders reversal — completed if support at $1.27 is broken.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

The greenback reversed sharply against the Yen in the last week, falling from ¥104 to ¥99. But the scale of the reversal is placed in its proper perspective on a monthly chart. The primary up-trend is unfazed, and recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥110*. The 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 99 ) = 109; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

ASX 200: The last straw

The ASX Small Ordinaries Index is already in a primary down-trend, but breach of the 2012 low at 2050 warns of a decline to 1700*.

ASX Small Ords Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 1700

The ASX 200 was in a strong up-trend until its recent breach of support at 4900, following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Penetration of the the rising trendline would be the last straw, confirming reversal to a primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

Follow-through below 4750 would test support at 4400/4500.

Nikkei, ASX find support but India & China weaken

Dow Jones Japan index found support at its long-term rising trendline.  Follow-through above 77 would indicate the correction is over, suggesting an advance to 100*. Breach of the trendline, however would warn that the primary trend is weakening.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 70 ) = 100

The ASX 200 also encountered buying pressure, with a hammer candlestick at the primary support level of 4900. Recovery above 5000 would indicate the correction is over, but breach remains as likely and would confirm the primary down-trend suggested by bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

ASX 200 Index

India’s Sensex is testing medium-term support at 19600. Breach would signal a correction to test primary support at 18000. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely, but would suggest an advance to 22000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Dow Jones Shanghai Index broke its rising trendline, warning that the rally is running out of steam. Failure of support at 294 would signal another test of primary support at 275. Respect of support is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary resistance at 314.

Shanghai Composite Index

The overall outlook for Asia remains bearish apart from Japan.

The history of Australian land prices | Leith van Onselen | Macrobusiness.com.au

Re-blogged with kind permission from Macrobusiness.com.au

Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property on June 4, 2013

Australian Housing

By Leith van Onselen

As argued previously, the sharp escalation of Australian home prices since the mid-1990s has been caused primarily by a surge in land values, which roughly doubled in size relative to the size of the economy, as measured by GDP (see next chart).

Housing Values to GDP

The explosion of land values is also reflected by the below chart showing the growth of house values (including both structures and land) far outstripping the growth of the ABS project homes index, which measures the cost of building new dwellings (excluding the land):

House Prices v. Construction Costs

On Friday night, Prosper Australia released a brand new long-run dataset on Australian land values, which has been painstakingly developed by Philip Soos, who is a research Masters candidate at Deakin University as well as a researcher for Prosper Australia. The data has been pulled together from a variety of public and private sources, including from economists Robert Scott, Doug Herps, Alan Taylor, Terry Dwyer and Nigel Stapledon.

While there is lots of useful data in the series, my favourite dataset is illustrated by the below chart showing the ratio of Australian land prices (residential, commercial and rural) to GDP:

Land v. GDP

As you can see, land prices relative to GDP doubled between 1996 and 2010. And while land values have deflated somewhat, it would appear they have much further to fall.

My long held view is that residential land prices (and by extension house prices) will experience a “slow melt” whereby values relative to GDP deflate back to their mid-1990s (pre-boom) level. The big question is whether this deflation will occur via prices falling outright or by GDP growth outstripping price growth. With any luck (from a financial stability perspective), the adjustment will take place more through real price reductions than nominal price falls. But the process could take a long time.

Soos’ land price dataset can be downloaded from here.

The U.S. Health Care System Doesn’t Need Price Controls. It Needs Price Signals | Reason.com

Peter Suderman discusses two articles which attack the high cost of health care in the USA:

Both pieces offer essentially the same thesis: The U.S. spends too much on health care because the prices Americans pay for health care services are too high. And both implicitly nod toward more aggressive regulation of medical prices as a solution.

…..most Americans don’t actually know much of anything at all about the prices they pay for health services. That’s because Americans don’t pay those prices themselves. Instead, they pay subsidized premiums for insurance provided through their employers, or they pay taxes and get Medicare or Medicaid……

What that means is that, in an important sense, the “prices” for health care services in America are not really prices at all. A better way to label them might be reimbursements—planned by Medicare bureaucrats and powerful physician advisory groups, negotiated by insurers who keep a watchful eye on the prices that Medicare charges, and only very occasionally paid by individuals, few of whom are shopping based on price and service quality…..

This is the real problem with health care pricing in the U.S.: not the lack of sufficiently aggressive price controls, but the lack of meaningful price signals.

The US spends about two-and-a-half times the OECD average for healthcare, while life expectancy at 79.7 years is lower than the OECD average of 79.8 years, according to PBS News Hour.

The Lombardy region of Italy offers the best health care solution I have come across, using price signals to control cost and quality of service in both state and private medical facilities.

Margherita Stancati at WSJ online writes:

Like other European countries, Italy offers universal health-care coverage backed by the state. Italians can go to a public hospital, for example, without involving an insurance company. The patients are charged a small co-pay, but most of the bill is paid by the government. As a result, the great majority of Italians don’t bother to buy private health insurance unless they want to seek treatment from private doctors or hospitals, which are relatively few.

Offering guaranteed reimbursements to public hospitals, though, took away the hospitals’ incentive to improve service or rein in costs. Inefficiencies were rampant as a result, and the quality of Italy’s public health care suffered for years. Months-long waiting lists became the norm for nonemergency procedures—even heart surgery—in most of the country.

Big changes came in 1997, when Italy’s national government decentralized the country’s health-care system, giving the regions control over the public money that goes to hospitals within their own borders…..

In much of the country, regions have continued to use the standards of care and reimbursement rates recommended by Rome. Some also give preferential treatment to public hospitals, making it more difficult for private hospitals to qualify for public funds.

Lombardy, by contrast, has increased its quality standards, set its own reimbursement rates and, most important, put public and private hospitals on an equal footing by making each equally eligible for public funds. If a hospital meets the quality standards and charges the accepted reimbursement rate, it qualifies. Patients are free to choose between state-run and publicly funded private hospitals at no extra cost. Their co-pay is the same in either case. As a result, public and many private hospitals in Lombardy compete directly for patients and funds.

…..Around 30% of hospital care in Lombardy is private now—more than anywhere else in Italy. And service in both the private and public sector has improved.

Read more at The U.S. Health Care System Doesn’t Need Price Controls. It Needs Price Signals. – Hit & Run : Reason.com.

Forex: Aussie tests support

The Aussie Dollar is testing its major support level at $0.95/$0.96. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a long-term down-trend. Breach of $0.95 would offer a target of $0.80.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Bearish signs for stocks

10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.05/2.10% with a key reversal (or outside reversal) on Friday, signaling a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. The tall shadow on Friday’s candle, however, warns of another test of the new support level before the trend gets under way. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of the lower trend channel at 1600,  declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support at 1600 would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index
The VIX is rising, but only breakout above 20 would indicate something is amiss.

S&P 500 Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index ran into huge selling pressure, falling to 13400 by midday Monday. Expect a test of support at 11500, but the primary trend remains upward. Rising industrial production indicates that Abenomics is starting to take effect.

Nikkei 225 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 also ran into selling pressure — at its 2007 high of 6750 — with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test 6000, but the primary trend remains upward.
FTSE 100 Index

Bearish divergence on the Shanghai Composite Index (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 2170. Penetration of the rising trendline would confirm. Breakout above 2460 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend, but that appears some way off.

Shanghai Composite Index

Impact of QE (or lack thereof) is reflected by excess reserves

JKH at Monetary Realism writes:

….there is a systematic tendency in the blogosphere and elsewhere to misrepresent the impact of QE in a particular way in terms of the related macroeconomic flow of funds…… Most descriptions will erroneously treat the macro flow as if banks were the original portfolio source of the bonds that are being sold to the Fed, obtaining reserves in exchange. This is not the case. A cursory scan of Fed flow of funds statistics will confirm that commercial banks are relatively small holders of bonds in their portfolios, especially Treasury bonds. The vast proportion of bonds that are sold to the Fed in QE originate from non-bank portfolios……. Many descriptions of QE instead erroneously suggest the strong presence of a bank principal function in which bonds from bank portfolios are simply exchanged for reserves. In fact, for the most part, while the banking system has received reserve credit for bonds sold to the Fed, it has also passed on credits to the accounts of non-bank customers who have sold their bonds to the banks. This is integral to the overall QE flow of bonds.

There is a simpler explanation of what happens when the Fed purchases bonds under QE. Bank balance sheets expand as sellers deposit the sale proceeds with their bank. In addition to the deposit liability the bank also receives an asset, being a credit to its account with the Fed. Unless the bank is able to make better use of its asset by making loans to credit-worthy borrowers, the funds are likely to remain on deposit at the Fed as excess reserves — earning interest at 0.25% per year. Excess reserves on deposit at the Fed currently stand at close to $1.8 trillion, reflecting the dearth of (reasonably secure) lending/investment opportunities in the broader economy.

Read more at The Accounting Quest of Steve Keen | Monetary Realism.