RBA leaves official cash rate at 2pc

Jens Meyer quotes RBA governor Glenn Stevens:

While the decision to keep rates unchanged was widely expected, analysts were speculating that the governor would show some concern about the recent steep rise in the Australian dollar’s exchange rate, which gained nearly 12 per cent from its January lows to a peak of US77.23¢ last week.

Mr Stevens duly added a paragraph to this month’s statement, noting that the currency had appreciated “somewhat”.

“In part, this [the recent rise] reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he said, referring to recent monetary easing by other central banks including the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, as well as the decision by the US Federal Reserve to reduce the pace of interest rate hikes.

“Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy,” he added.

But anyone hoping for a stronger “jawbone” was disappointed and the Australian dollar shot up by about half a cent to the day’s high of US76.32¢, before falling back in late trade to around US76¢.

Central banks around the globe are destabilizing financial markets and the RBA responds with a polite acknowledgement at the end of its statement. Someone please tell the governor: If you want to run with the big dogs, you’ve got to learn to pee high.

Source: RBA leaves official cash rate at 2pc

Where oil goes, stocks will follow

Where oil goes, stocks will follow. Crude oil prices are the canary in the coalmine at present. June 2016 Light Crude futures retreated from resistance at $43/barrel. Breach of medium-term support at $38 warns of another test of primary support at $32/barrel. Failure of support at $32 would offer a target of $22/barrel*, while respect of support would suggest that a bottom is forming.

June 2016 Light Crude Futures

* Target calculation: 32 – ( 42 – 32 ) = 22

The ASX started Monday with an early rally but ran into a spate of selling before the close. ASX 200 follow-through below 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4750. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of primary support would reaffirm the long-term target of 4000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

Megalogenis: Australian Panic! | MacroBusiness

From Unconventional Economist at Macrobusiness:

…..George is back, this time with The Australian Panic in a new Quarterly Essay:

The Australian Panic

In this urgent essay, George Megalogenis argues that Australia risks becoming globalisation’s next and most unnecessary victim. The next shock, whenever it comes, will find us with our economic guard down, and a political system that has shredded its authority. Megalogenis outlines the challenge for Malcolm Turnbull and his government. Our tax system is unfair and we have failed to invest in infrastructure and education. Both sides of politics are clinging defensively to an old model because it tells them a reassuring story of Australian success. But that model has been exhausted by capitalism’s extended crisis and the end of the mining boom. Trusting to the market has left us with gridlocked cities, growing inequality and a corporate sector that feels no obligation to pay tax. It is time to redraw the line between market and state.

Balancing Act is a passionate look at the politics of change and renewal, and a bold call for active government. It took World War II to provide the energy and focus for the reconstruction that laid the foundation for modern Australia. Will it take another crisis to prompt a new reconstruction?

I think George has it right this time.

Source: Megalogenis: From Australian Moment to Australian Panic! – MacroBusiness

Private health insurance fails to deliver

From Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness:

The high financial overhead of private insurance in Australia means that only 84 cents in every dollar collected by private insurers is returned as benefits, with the rest going to administrative costs and corporate profits. By contrast, Medicare returns 94 cents in the dollar, even after the cost of tax collection is taken into account. In the United States, which is highly dependent on private insurance, only 69 cents in the dollar are returned as payment for health services.

More importantly, competing private insurers have less ability to control prices demanded by powerful service providers. If one insurer tries to bargain hard with hospitals to keep prices down, the hospitals simply choose to do business with another insurer.

By contrast a single national insurer has the market power to push down costs and improve utilisation. The below chart of health costs across 18 OECD countries highlights this point: single national insurers provide cheaper (and often better) health care than systems heavily reliant on private health insurance:

This is an argument for abandoning private health insurance, not private health care. Experience of Italy’s Lombardy region suggests a level-playing field, with open competition between public and private health care providers, delivers superior results. From Margherita Stancati at WSJ online:

Like other European countries, Italy offers universal health-care coverage backed by the state. Italians can go to a public hospital, for example, without involving an insurance company. The patients are charged a small co-pay, but most of the bill is paid by the government. As a result, the great majority of Italians don’t bother to buy private health insurance unless they want to seek treatment from private doctors or hospitals, which are relatively few.

Offering guaranteed reimbursements to public hospitals, though, took away the hospitals’ incentive to improve service or rein in costs. Inefficiencies were rampant as a result, and the quality of Italy’s public health care suffered for years. Months-long waiting lists became the norm for nonemergency procedures—even heart surgery—in most of the country.

Big changes came in 1997, when Italy’s national government decentralized the country’s health-care system, giving the regions control over the public money that goes to hospitals within their own borders…..

In much of the country, regions have continued to use the standards of care and reimbursement rates recommended by Rome. Some also give preferential treatment to public hospitals, making it more difficult for private hospitals to qualify for public funds.

Lombardy, by contrast, has increased its quality standards, set its own reimbursement rates and, most important, put public and private hospitals on an equal footing by making each equally eligible for public funds. If a hospital meets the quality standards and charges the accepted reimbursement rate, it qualifies. Patients are free to choose between state-run and publicly funded private hospitals at no extra cost. Their co-pay is the same in either case. As a result, public and many private hospitals in Lombardy compete directly for patients and funds.

…..Around 30% of hospital care in Lombardy is private now—more than anywhere else in Italy. And service in both the private and public sector has improved.

State hospitals have improved their service levels while private hospitals have lowered costs in response to the increased competition. A win for all …..except private health insurers.

TPG boost

TPM

TPM is in a healthy up-trend, having recently announced a 90 percent increase in earnings for the 6 months ended 31 January 2016 compared to the same period in the previous year. But momentum has been falling since 2014, illustrated by bearish divergence on the chart above.

This excerpt from David Ramli gives a clue:

….speaking to Fairfax Media, Mr Teoh [executive chairman] acknowledged there were challenges ahead as the NBN rolls out across Australia. The NBN is set to replace Telstra’s copper network as the foundation of Australia’s fixed-line phone and internet connections. It will also slash the profit margins of telecommunications that have installed their own equipment in Telstra’s telephone exchanges because the NBN’s wholesale prices will be more expensive.

“There’s no doubt the profit is coming down but the growth is there,” he said. “In business there’s always challenges but we have to find a way to balance the impact of the NBN.”It’s an industry problem so we’re trying to balance our profits and losses and if you look at our numbers we’re still growing.”

In response Mr Teoh said he was looking to lift the sales of products that used TPG’s own infrastructure to cut down on costs. He added that TPG was speeding up the construction of its fibre-to-the-basement network, which actively competes against the NBN.

Forward dividend yield of 1.5% and PE of 26 both imply double-digit growth in earnings. This will depend on the effectiveness of TPG’s strategies to counter the NBN roll-out.

Source: TPG boosts profits 90pc

APRA gives the RBA some wiggle room | Business Spectator

Robert Gottliebsen predicts further rate cuts from the RBA:

Given that Australian interest rates are higher than other countries of similar standing, money is now flowing Down Under which works to boost the currency and some are forecasting that the exchange rate could rise as high as US80c.

Thanks to APRA, the Reserve Bank can now attack the currency with lower rates without the risk of putting a rocket under house prices.

Source: APRA gives the RBA some wiggle room | Business Spectator

Hat tip to David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness

China trade: Food, LNG, coal to gain ground as iron ore exports slip | afr.com

From Ben Potter at AFR:

Iron ore sales to China are set to fall as a share of total two-way trade, while natural gas, food and even coal exports will become more important, the paper, China’s Evolving Demand for Commodities, finds.

A decline in Chinese crude steel production means iron ore’s share of China trade falls steadily from its current peak of 58 per cent to about 51 per cent by 2025 and 43 to 47 per cent by 2035, the paper, by Ivan Roberts, Trent Saunders, Gareth Spence and Natasha Cassidy of the Reserve Bank of Australia finds

Source: China trade: Food, LNG, coal to gain ground as iron ore exports slip | afr.com

Iron ore price correction in full swing | MINING.com

Frik Els:

Iron ore is now down 18.3% from a high above $63 struck last week following an insane one-day rally.

…..SGX was the first to launch iron ore derivatives in April 2009 and so-called open interest – a measure of market participation – has surged to an all-time high in recent days according to data from the exchange.

The iron ore market has also gone into backwardation, an unusual situation where spot price are higher than futures prices…..

Source: Iron ore price correction in full swing | MINING.com

McCain: Putin’s diplomacy part of military strategy

Jamie McIntyre on Russian actions in Syria:

……Last month at the prestigious Munich Conference on Security Policy, [Senate Armed Services Chairman Sen. John McCain] blasted the “cessation of hostilities” agreement hammered out between Moscow and Washington, as simply playing into Putin’s hands.

“It is no accident that Mr. Putin has agreed on a cessation of hostilities when he did. We have seen this movie before in Ukraine: Russia presses its advantage militarily, creates new facts on the ground, uses the denial and delivery of humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip, negotiates an agreement to lock in the spoils of war, and then chooses when to resume fighting. This is diplomacy in the service of military aggression,” McCain said.

Source: Source: U.S. ‘surprised’ by Russia pullout from Syria | Washington Examiner