The two overriding features on the USD/Yen chart are the strong primary down-trend — as indicated by the descending trendline — and a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warning of a reversal. Recovery above resistance at ¥80 would confirm the reversal.
Asia rallied Monday on encouraging signs from Europe, with the Nikkei 225 testing 8300, the Seoul Composite (KOSPI) jumping to 1815, and Hang Seng above 18000. But a look at the quarterly chart of the Nikkei shows a long-term, bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, while the index is headed for a test of key support at 7000/7500. Unless we see a break above the descending trendline, the trend remains downward.
South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is headed for another test of 1650 according to the weekly chart. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating well below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 1350*.
* Target calculation: 1650 – ( 1950 – 1650 ) = 1350
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recovered above 18000 Monday but the long-term trend remains downward. Steeply descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 16 – ( 20 – 16 ) = 12
The Shanghai Composite index did not share the enthusiasm of other Asian markets, testing support at 2375. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Failure of support at 2300 would offer a target of 2050*.
* Target calculation: 2300 – ( 2550 – 2300 ) = 2050
DJ South Korea Index is testing medium-term support at 390 Monday. Failure would signal a test of the primary level at 350. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 350 – ( 420 − 350 ) = 280
The weekly chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows respect of resistance at 9000. Failure of primary support at 8400 would offer a target of 7800*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 8400 – ( 9000 − 8400 ) = 7800
This is a 20-year (monthly) chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The dollar has declined in a primary down-trend since early 2008. Long-term support at 80 failed to halt the fall and the greenback is now ranging between ¥75 and ¥80. The down-trend is in its fourth year and large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a reaction. Penetration of the declining trendline would strengthen the signal and breakout above 80 would confirm, offering a long-term target of 100.
The Shanghai Composite Index reflects China’s controlled slow-down, edging lower with intermittent bear market rallies. The index is currently testing the descending (secondary) trendline at 2500. Penetration would offer a target of 2650 but would not indicate that the primary down-trend is over. Failure of support at 2300/2350 remains more likely and would offer a target of 2000.
* Target calculation: 2300 – ( 2600 – 2300 ) = 2000
HongKong’s Hang Seng Index is headed for a test of the (primary) descending trendline at 21000; breakout above 20000 would confirm. The primary trend remains downward, however, and respect of the trendline would suggest another test of 16000.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is ranging between 8400 and 9100. Breakout would indicate future trend direction.
* Target calculation: 8400 – ( 9000 – 8400 ) = 7800
South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to reflect buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Follow-through above recent highs would indicate a strong bear rally, but the primary trend remains downward.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
Dow Jones Japan Index is consolidating between 48 and 52. Breakout will signal future direction. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is rising but there is no clear break as yet above the zero line. Monday’s candle indicates continued hesitancy.
Dow Jones South Korea Index also showed hesitancy Monday. Reversal below 400 would warn of another test of primary support at 350, while respect of 400 would indicate a primary advance to 450*. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is declining but respect of the zero line would also signal a primary advance.
* Target calculation: 400 + ( 400 – 350 ) = 450
The Bank of Japan is taking measures to suppress the yen against the greenback. The long-term chart shows why their efforts are destined to fail: the dollar has maintained a strong down-trend against the yen for a number of years. Failure of support at ¥76 would indicate that the BOJ’s latest efforts have failed and will offer a target of 72*.
* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72
Dow Jones Japan Index weakened Monday, warning of another test of primary support at 48.
Dow Jones South Korea Index had a stronger breakout, but is also now retracing. Respect of support would confirm the up-trend, while reversal below 400 would signal weakness.
During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Japanese banks, getting killed with a falling Nikkei and their credit extended to Thailand and Indonesia, found that rolling off interbank lines to Korea the easiest way to shrink their balance sheets. American and European banks, not wanting to be the last out of Korea, panicked and followed the Japanese banks thus sucking in another country into the Asian crisis.
The Korean banks having to raise dollar liquidity sold their Brazilian and other emerging market bonds. Brazilian banks long their sovereign’s bonds that were declining in price had to raise liquidity and sold their Russian assets. The global margin call was on and fueled a full blown contagion and ended with the Russian debt default and LTCM crisis. Let’ hope it doesn’t come to this. Stay tuned and stay vigilant.
via The Creeping Eurozone Credit Crunch | Credit Writedowns.
The BoJ announced today that it will expand its asset purchase programme by JPY5trn (USD66bn), with all the purchases being directed at JGB’s. Add that to the GBP75bn (USD120bn) by the BoE, CHF50bn (USD57bn) by the SNB and the EUR341bn (USD477bn) expansion of the ECB balance sheet since the end of June, and it collectively adds up to USD720bn. Clearly this explains the market rally from the low.
