Japan & Korea Archives - Page 25 of 31

April 5, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling & Yen

The Euro continues in a primary down-trend, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum respecting the zero line from below. Failure of medium-term support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breach of $1.26 would warn of a decline to $1.18*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

The rise above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that Pound Sterling commenced a primary up-trend. But respect of resistance at $1.60 indicates another test of $1.56. Respect of $1.56 would signal another advance, while failure would warn of a primary decline with a target of $1.46*.

Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen after a strong rally. A short correction is likely and would signal another strong advance; breakout above ¥84 would offer a target of ¥88*. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm the primary up-trend.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

April 1, 2012

Japan selling pressure but South Korea holds firm

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test the new support level at 9000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below resistance at 2050. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2050 would indicate an advance to 2150*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

March 29, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound & Yen

The Euro is headed for another test of resistance at $1.35. Breakout would signal an initial advance to $1.40. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend.

EUR/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.30 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling displays a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.60. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Initial target for the breakout would be $1.64.

GBP/USD

* Target calculation: 1.60 + ( 1.60 – 1.56 ) = 1.64

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen, testing medium-term support at ¥82. A short retracement is likely and respect of support at ¥82 would signal another strong advance.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 82 ) = 86

March 24, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index also shows a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, warning of a correction. The next medium-term support level below 10000 is the former resistance level at 9000, so there could be a fairly sharp fall. But the primary trend is up and recovery above 10200 would signal an advance to 11000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10 + ( 10 – 9 ) = 11

Despite global weakness, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to test resistance at 2050. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of 1950, but recovery above 2050 would signal an advance to 2250*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1650 ) = 2250

March 22, 2012

Playing Pyongyang's Games – WSJ.com

MICHAEL AUSLIN: It took barely two weeks for North Korea to play its old game of bait and switch, this time gutting the Feb. 29 “Leap Day Agreement” with the Obama administration that promised a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing. In an Ides of March announcement, Pyongyang revealed it would conduct a “satellite launch” on April 15, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, founder of the North Korean regime.

….In a sense, the Obama administration has only itself to blame for this mess. For three years, it wisely avoided playing Pyongyang’s games. Unlike the Bush administration, which became increasingly desperate to patch holes in a flawed policy of making ever more concessions for little in return, the Obama team kept contact with former leader Kim Jong Il at a minimum, and refused to enter the Alice in Wonderland world of reaching agreement with the North only to face provocation and demands for more concessions.

via Michael Auslin: Playing Pyongyang's Games – WSJ.com.

March 22, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound & Yen

The Euro is undecided about its recent show of strength and is likely to re-test medium-term support at $1.30. Failure of $1.30 would complete a head and shoulders pattern, visible on the Daily chart (shoulders at $1.33), testing primary support at $1.26. But recovery above $1.33 remains as likely and would signal another test of $1.35.

Euro/USD

Pound Sterling is testing resistance at $1.60 and recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Confirmation would only come, however, from breakout above $1.62.

Pound Sterling/USD

The Greenback is retracing to find support after a strong advance against the Yen over the last 6 weeks. Respect of support at ¥80 would confirm a healthy primary up-trend.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

March 19, 2012

Selling pressure warns of correction

Medium-term selling pressure, signaled by bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, continues to warn of a correction in US and Asia-Pacific markets. The Dow Jones TSM (formerly “Wilshire”) Asia-Pacific Index displays a bearish divergence since mid-February. Reversal below 1280 would confirm a correction.

Dow Jones TSM Asia-Pacific Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average shows a similar bearish divergence, though the latest down-turn was exaggerated by triple-witching hour [TW] on Friday. Reversal below 12750 would confirm a correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

March 18, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke through resistance at 10000. Follow-through above 10200 would indicate a further advance as signaled by sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. The rally is becoming dangerously extended and a correction to test support would add stability.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is already in a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again signals strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 2050 would signal an advance to 2200*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1700 ) = 2200

March 15, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen

The euro is weakening against the greenback, testing medium-term support at $1.30. Failure would indicate a test of primary support at $1.26 and continuation of the down-trend. Respect is unlikely, but would suggest a test of the declining trendline.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling rallied against the Aussie Dollar, testing the new resistance level at $1.50. The down-trend is likely to continue and breach of the rising trendline would warn of another decline, with an immediate target of $1.42*.

Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.46 – ( 1.50 – 1.46 ) = 1.42

The US Dollar is approaching its target of ¥85 Japanese Yen. Expect retracement to confirm the new support level at ¥80, followed by an advance to ¥90*.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

March 8, 2012

Forex: Euro and Yen weaken while Rand recovers

The Euro is retreating to test medium-term support at $1.30 on the weekly chart. Failure would mean a fall to primary support at $1.25/$1.26. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reinforces the primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.25 – ( 1.35 – 1.25 ) = 1.15

Pound Sterling is ranging between $1.5650 and $1.6000 against the greenback. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of the opposite.

GBPUSD

The dollar respected the new support level at 80 Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82 would confirm the primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥85.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00 South African Rand. Failure would offer an initial target of R7.50, at the rising trendline. Momentum is falling sharply and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUDZAR