Category: Japan & Korea

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Forex: Euro breakout, Aussie strengthens

The Euro broke through its February high of $1.37, signaling a long-term advance to $1.46*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend, but expect retracement to test the new support level. Reversal below support at $1.34 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

Sterling is testing medium-term support at €1.175. Penetration of the rising trendline warns the trend is weakening and failure of support would signal a correction to primary support at €1.14. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the warning. Recovery above resistance at €1.20 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to €1.225*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.175 ) = 1.225

The greenback is pretty directionless against the Japanese Yen, reflecting indecision. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of trend weakness. Breakout above ¥101 would signal another advance, while breach of support at ¥96 would indicate a reversal.

USD/JPY

Canada’s Loonie is back at parity against the Aussie Dollar. Expect some support at this level. A breach of the descending trendline would alert us to a potential rally, as would reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar encountered resistance at its target of $0.97* against the greenback. Short retracement would indicate strong momentum, while respect of the new support level at $0.95 would suggest a healthy up-trend. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn the up-trend is weakening.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie Dollar is strengthening against its Kiwi neighbour, breaking resistance at $1.14 to signal another test of $1.16. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum favors a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Reversal below $1.14 is now unlikely, but would warn of another decline; confirmed if primary support at $1.12 is broken.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

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Asian recovery bullish for ASX

India’s Sensex is testing long-term resistance at its all-time high of 21000. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 20500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout above 21000 would offer a long-term target of 24000*. Reversal below 20500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Rising troughs on Japan’s Nikkei 225 weekly chart suggest buying pressure; 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 15000 would signal an advance to 17500*. Reversal below 14000 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating below resistance at 2250. Reversal below the lower channel border at 2180, however, would warn that the trend is slowing and breach of support at 2150 would signal another correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure, but oscillation above the zero line indicates buyers are dominant in the longer term.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would be a strong bull signal, offering a target of 25500*. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm the advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 22750 is unlikely, but would indicate a correction to 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Rising Asian markets are bullish for the ASX. The ASX 200 index followed through above 5300, confirming an advance to 5850*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 5250/5300. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Forex: Aussie breakout

The Euro is consolidating in a narrow band below $1.36. Upward breakout above $1.37 would signal a fresh advance, with a long-term target of $1.47*. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend. Failure of support at $1.34 — and penetration of the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

Sterling broke short-term support at €1.18, warning of another correction to primary support at €1.14. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero continues to favor a primary up-trend. Breakout above resistance at €1.20 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to €1.24*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

The greenback respected support against the Japanese Yen at ¥96. Breakout above ¥101 would signal another advance. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of a weak up-trend and breach of support at ¥96 would indicate a reversal.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 96 – ( 100 – 96 ) = 92

Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.96, suggesting another attempt at resistance of $0.9750. Breakout would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of parity*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum also favors a primary up-trend. Reversal below $0.96 is unlikely, but would signal another test of the primary level at $0.9450.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 97.5 + ( 97.5 – 94.5 ) = 100.5

The Aussie Dollar broke through resistance at $0.95, signaling an advance to $0.97*. Retracement to test the new support level at $0.95 is likely. Respect would confirm the primary advance; failure of support — though unlikely — would warn of another test of $0.93.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

Against its Kiwi neighbour, the Aussie Dollar respected resistance at $1.14, suggesting another test of primary support at $1.12. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to favor a primary up-trend. Recovery above $1.14 — and the descending trendline — would signal a test of primary resistance at $1.16. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Until then, breach of primary support remains a threat and would warn of a decline to $1.08*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08

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India, ASX breakout

India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level after breaking resistance at 20500 Friday, signaling a primary advance to 22000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 19500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing the rising trendline on its weekly chart. Penetration would warn that momentum is slowing, while breach of 13000 would signal a primary down-trend. Breakout above 15000 is as likely, despite the earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and would signal an advance to 17500*.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is rallying to test resistance — and the upper trend channel — at 2330. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates growing buying pressure. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 25500*; follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 23000 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of support at 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index appears to be preparing for another test of long-term resistance at 3300. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 3600*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend, but sentiment is bullish across a wide range of markets and upward breakout is as likely.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at the May high of 5250, the false break suggesting a bear trap. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Forex: Euro, Aussie up-trend

The Euro continues to test its new support level at $1.34/$1.3450. Respect is likely and would signal a test of the February high at $1.37. Breakout above $1.37 would offer a long-term target of $1.47*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend. Failure of support — and penetration of the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

Sterling faltered after breaking resistance at €1.19. Reversal below €1.18 would warn of another test of primary support at €1.14. Follow-through above €1.20 is less likely, but would signal an advance to €1.24*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

The greenback is testing primary support at ¥96 against the Yen. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below ¥94 would confirm. Recovery above ¥101 is less likely, but would indicate another advance.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 96 – ( 100 – 96 ) = 92

Canada’s Loonie respected its descending trendline and is testing support at $0.96. Failure (of support) would signal another test of the primary level at $0.9450. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to favor a primary up-trend. Breakout above $0.9750 is presently unlikely, but would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of parity*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 97.5 + ( 97.5 – 94.5 ) = 100.5

The Aussie Dollar is retracing to test its new support level at $0.94 against the greenback. Respect would indicate a test of resistance at $0.95, but failure is as likely and would warn of another test of medium-term support at $0.93. Breach of $0.93 would be more serious, warning of a correction to primary support at $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie continues to test primary support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbour. Recovery above $1.14 — and the descending trendline — would indicate a test of primary resistance at $1.16. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Breach of primary support remains as likely, however, and would offer a target of $1.08*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08

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China & India bouyant, Japan weakens

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke short-term support at 14300, indicating a correction to 13000. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn that momentum is slowing, while breach of 13000 would signal a primary down-trend. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warned of a reversal; decline below recent lows at 15% would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225

China’s Shanghai Composite followed through today above the (secondary) declining trendline, suggesting a rally to test resistance — and the upper trend channel — at 2330. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is consolidating below resistance at 20400 — a bullish sign. Breakout above 20400 would signal another primary advance, but reversal below 19400 is as likely, and would warn of another test of 18000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

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Forex: Euro and Aussie rise as Dollar weakens

The Euro respected support, on a brief retracement to $1.34/$1.3450, before following through above the last two week’s high — signaling a test of the February high at $1.37. Breakout would offer a long-term target of $1.46*. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

The greenback is heading for a test of primary support at ¥96 after breaking short-term support at ¥98 on the daily chart. Failure of support would offer a target of ¥92*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would indicate a rally to ¥100.50.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 96 – ( 100 – 96 ) = 92

The Aussie Dollar has so far respected support at $0.93 against the greenback. Follow-through above $0.94 would suggest an advance to $0.97; confirmed if resistance at $0.95 is broken. Reversal below $0.93, however, would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie continues to test support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbour. Tall shadows (wicks) for the last two weeks indicate selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.08*. Recovery above the descending trendline is less likely, but would suggest an advance to $1.20; breakout above $1.16 would confirm, completing a double-bottom reversal.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08

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Japan & China steady, ASX threatens correction

Dow Jones Japan index chose to ignore the poker game on Capitol Hill in Washington today, following Friday’s sharp fall. Breach of the rising trendline, however, warns of a correction.

Dow Jones Japan index

A weekly chart of the Nikkei 225 shows short-term support at 14300, with resistance at 15000. Failure of support would test the primary level at 13200, while upward breakout remains as likely and would signal an advance to 17000*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal; decline below 15% would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 13200 would confirm.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 13000 ) = 17000

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing short-term support at 2150. Failure of support would penetrate the rising trendline, warning of another correction. A sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Respect of 2150, or even 2100, would signal another test of resistance at 2250. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is reversing. But breach of 2100 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex continues on a downward path toward primary support. Penetration of the former rising trendline would increase the likelihood of a test. Breakout below 18500 would signal a primary down-trend, while follow-through below 18000 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero is unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 retreated below its May high of 5250 for a second time; a bearish sign. Penetration of the rising trendline also warns of a correction. Breach of short-term support at 5200 would confirm.

ASX 200

There appears little danger of a primary reversal at this stage, with primary support at 4650, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) also displays a bearish divergence, indicating selling pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*, but we are likely to see a correction first.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Buy Yen on Debt Debacle? | WSJ

Ian Talley at WSJ reports:

In, “The Curious Case of the Yen: A Safe Haven Currency without Inflows” (see p.142) the IMF studied 11 shocks between the August 1990 U.S. savings and loan crisis and the August 2011 U.S. debt ceiling confrontation that pushed the volatility index 10 percentage points higher than its previous 60-day average. “The yen has tended to appreciate on average during these episodes, against the U.S. dollar, the euro and in nominal and real effective terms,” the IMF found.

Read more at Buy Yen on Debt Debacle? – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

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Forex: Aussie and Euro breakout

The Euro broke through resistance at $1.34/$1.3450, offering a medium-term target of $1.37* and long-term target of $1.40*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.31 ) = 1.37; 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

The greenback is ranging aimlessly between ¥96 and ¥101 against the yen, indicating uncertainty. Breakout from the range will indicate future direction. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 101 + ( 101 – 96 ) = 106

The Aussie Dollar retraced to test support at $0.93/$0.935 against the greenback after its recent breakout. Respect is likely and would suggest an advance to $0.97*. Follow-through above $0.95 would confirm.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie found support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbour. Recovery above $1.16 and the descending trendline would complete a double-bottom reversal, offering a target of $1.20*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

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