India & Singapore Archives - Page 14 of 23

July 9, 2013

ASX 200 rallies despite weakness in Asia

An outside day reversal on Japan’s Nikkei 225 warns of retracement to test support at 13500. Respect of support — or a trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 12500.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing long-term support at 1950 — as shown on the monthly chart. Failure of support is likely and would warn of a test of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Respect of support at 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2400/2500.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex respected its rising trendline and is likely to test resistance at 20000. Breach of resistance would signal a primary advance, with a target of 22000*. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index remains weak after finding support at 3100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after bearish divergence would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 3100 would confirm. Recovery above 3300, while unlikely, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Straits Times Index

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 4860, indicating the correction is over. Follow-through above 4900 would strengthen the signal. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates healthy medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5000 would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 1, 2013

Asia rallies but ASX meets resistance

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 13500, indicating the correction is over. Expect a re-test of the May high at 16000. Reversal below 13500, however, would mean another test of 12500. A trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy primary up-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected support at 250, the long tail on both the $DJSH and Shanghai Composite indicating strong buying pressure. Expect a rally to test resistance at 275 (2150 on the Shanghai Composite), but the primary trend remains downward and resistance at 275 (2150) is likely to hold.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex rallied off its rising trendline, suggesting that the primary up-trend will continue. Follow-through above 19500 would indicate a test of resistance at 20000/20200. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal and would only be refuted by a breakout above 20200 (or a rise above the May peak on TMF).

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 respected its descending trendline at 4800 and is headed for another test of support at 4650. A peak below zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy down-trend. Breach of 4650 would test the key long-term support level of 4400, while respect would mean another test of 4900. In the longer term, respect of 4400 would be bullish, but failure of support would be a strong bear signal.

ASX 200 Index

The ASX Small Ordinaries, by contrast, exhibits a stronger bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating buying support. Breakout above 1960 would indicate the latest primary decline is over, while reversal below 1880 would offer a target of 1800. Small Caps have been badly mauled over the last two years and at some point will present an opportunity to value investors. Unfortunately that end is not yet in sight.
ASX Small Ordinaries Index

June 25, 2013

ASX and Asian selling pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index respected support at 12500 and its long-term rising trendline, but another test is likely in the week ahead. Follow-through above 13500 would indicate the correction is over, suggesting a re-test of resistance at 16000. Breach of 12500, however, is more likely, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of a reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

Shanghai Composite Index is falling sharply. So far the down-trend has been gradual, with the PBOC looking to manufacture a soft landing. But 13-week Twiggs Money Flow crossing below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1600*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 1600

India’s Sensex breached its rising trendline, warning that the primary up-trend is weakening. Failure of support at 18000 would signal a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates trend reversal is likely. Recovery above 19000 is unlikely, but would suggest a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Apart from Japan, the outlook for Asia is bearish.

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of support at 4400, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow having warned of a reversal. Failure of support at 4400 would re-test the 2011 lows, while respect would be bullish — suggesting another attempt at 5000.

ASX 200 Index

June 11, 2013

Europe & Asia: Widespread selling pressure

Germany’s DAX respected support at 8000 on its recent retracement. Follow-through above 8500 would confirm a fresh primary advance. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Retreat below 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

The FTSE 100 also encountered resistance at its 2007 high, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 6000. Recovery above 6750 is unlikely but would signal a fresh primary advance.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 found support at 12500. Reversal below this level would warn of a decline to 10000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. I was interested to read that George Soros was buying Japanese stocks. To me it seems premature.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of medium-term support at 19000. Breach would test primary support at 18000. Respect would indicate another advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 18000 would confirm.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index reversed below its new support level at 3300, warning of a bull trap. Follow-through below last week’s low would indicate a test of the long-term trendline around 3000.

Straits Times Index

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated sharply last week and is headed for another test of support at 2150. Breach would signal a fall to 1950. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. A weakening Shanghai Index is bearish for Australian resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 found support at 4750, while bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the eventual boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity later. Expect a weak rally followed by decline to 4500.

ASX 200 Index

June 4, 2013April 18, 2024

Nikkei, ASX find support but India & China weaken

Dow Jones Japan index found support at its long-term rising trendline. Follow-through above 77 would indicate the correction is over, suggesting an advance to 100*. Breach of the trendline, however would warn that the primary trend is weakening.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 70 ) = 100

The ASX 200 also encountered buying pressure, with a hammer candlestick at the primary support level of 4900. Recovery above 5000 would indicate the correction is over, but breach remains as likely and would confirm the primary down-trend suggested by bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

ASX 200 Index

India’s Sensex is testing medium-term support at 19600. Breach would signal a correction to test primary support at 18000. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely, but would suggest an advance to 22000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Dow Jones Shanghai Index broke its rising trendline, warning that the rally is running out of steam. Failure of support at 294 would signal another test of primary support at 275. Respect of support is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary resistance at 314.

Shanghai Composite Index

The overall outlook for Asia remains bearish apart from Japan.

May 27, 2013April 18, 2024

Shanghai rising but Nikkei, ASX selling pressure

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test the new support level at 8000. Respect would confirm a primary advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure — a fall below zero would warn of a reversal. Breach of 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

Dow Jones Europe encountered strong resistance at 290, but remains in a primary up-trend. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn that the trend is losing momentum, while failure of support at 270 would signal a reversal.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 ran into massive selling between 15000 and 16000. The gravestone on the monthly chart, supported by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warns of a reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of long-term resistance at 21000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of primary support at 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite Index respected support at 2150 and is headed for another test of resistance at 2500. Breakout above 2500 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend. That is still some way off but would be good news for Australia’s beleaguered resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of primary support at 4900. Breach would also penetrate the rising trendline, indicating reversal to a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow has been warning of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity for Australian investors when the correction is over.

ASX 200 Index

May 4, 2013

Is China Carelessly Overextending Itself? | Flashpoints

Robert Farley writes:

Over the past two weeks, Indian media has reported several border incursions along the two states’ disputed Himalayan border . While the Indian government has downplayed the incidents, Indian strategic commentators have suggested that China is moving to leverage its logistical advantages in the region.

At nearly the same time, China has upped the ante with respect to the Senkaku/Diaoyus…..

April 29, 2013

Asia: Singapore breakout, ASX 200 selling pressure

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke long-term resistance at 3300, signaling an advance to the 2007 high of 3900*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthen the signal.
DJ Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

India’s Sensex followed through above resistance at 19000. Breach of the descending trendline would indicate a primary advance to 22000*. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, signals selling pressure and reversal below 19000 would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.
BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

China’s Shanghai Composite is again testing medium-term support at 2150. Failure of support would warn of a decline to test primary support at 1950/2000. Reversal above 2250, however, would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating another test of 2500.
Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to climb, with a steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 15000*.
Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11500 + ( 11500 – 8000 ) = 15000

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5150. Breakout would offer a target of 5400*, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support at 4900 would signal a reversal.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

April 23, 2013

Nikkei and ASX 200 rally, while China & Europe weaken

Respect of support at 1540 and the bottom trend channel indicates a S&P 500 rally to test 1600 and the upper channel line. Failure to break resistance at 1600 would warn of a correction as signaled by mild bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1100 ) = 1600

The FTSE 100 also respected support, at 6220, but a tall shadow on Monday warns of selling pressure. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal and breach of support (6220) would signal a test of the primary trendline at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6220 – ( 6420 – 6220 ) = 6020

Germany’s DAX broke medium-term support at 7500. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Follow-through below 7400 would signal a test of primary support at 7000. Recovery above 7600 is unlikely, but would test the descending trendline at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 – ( 8000 – 7500 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex broke resistance at 19000. Respect of support at 18000 and the rising trendline indicates the primary trend is intact. Mild bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Expect consolidation or short retracement, but follow-through above the descending trendline at 19200 would indicate an advance to 20000.
BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 18000 ) = 20000

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing medium-term resistance at 2250. Breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating the correction is over.
Shanghai Composite Index
Unfortunately the Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected the descending trendline Tuesday, indicating another down-swing to the lower trend channel.
DJ Shanghai Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the star performer, when measured in Yen. Sharp rallies, with frequent gaps, followed by short retracements indicates a strong up-trend. As does 21-day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating clear above the zero line.
Nikkei 225 Index

The ASX 200 met some resistance at 5020, but rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout would signal a test of 5150.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5025 + ( 5025 – 4900 ) = 5150

April 16, 2013

Asia: Japan rises as gold falls

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is in a strong primary up-trend as the BOJ commences asset purchases on a massive scale. This is a tectonic shift in the market. Larry Edelson (as quoted by Barry Ritholz) has the most convincing explanation of the sharp fall in gold:

The wicked and aggressive devaluation of the Japanese yen is setting off a massive stampede OUT of gold and into cash and other assets…….Why are the Japanese dumping gold, especially when their currency is being devalued? It’s simple. The fall in the Japanese yen caused the price of gold in yen to spike sharply higher. So Japanese investors are cashing in their profits.

…and buying stocks.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11500 + ( 11500 – 8500 ) = 14500

India’s Sensex corrected to support at 18000; breakout would warn that momentum is failing and a test of primary support at 16000 likely. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a (primary trend) reversal.

Sensex Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a bottom is forming, but that does not rule out another test of primary support at 1950/2000. Respect of 2150, however, with breach of the descending trendline, would be a bullish sign suggesting an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index