China & HK Archives - Page 45 of 61

October 23, 2012

Asian market update

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term resistance at 2150. Breach of the descending trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

India’s Sensex continues to test its new support level at 18500. Follow-through above 19000 would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Respect of 9200 would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

October 15, 2012

China Inc waves a red flag on economic recovery | Reuters

By Vikram Subhedar

(Reuters) – Chinese corporate profits show no sign of a second-half recovery as analysts cut earnings estimates in September by the most in 2-1/2 years, a red flag for investors who expect the world’s second biggest economy to start picking up soon……

via China Inc waves a red flag on economic recovery | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

China’s export growth accelerated in September

by Zarathustra

China’s trade data for September show some improvement in growth. Export growth picked up to 9.9% yoy in September, up from 2.7% yoy in August, and better than consensus estimate fo 5.5% yoy…….

via China’s export growth accelerated in September.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 15, 2012

China iron-ore spot prices surge 30% in just weeks – MarketWatch

By MarketWatch

BEIJING–Iron ore spot prices for China delivery have surged nearly 30% since early September with mills replenishing stocks amid a tentative rebound in the steel sector, suggesting that a recent price decline may have bottomed out.

…..Prices for 63.5% iron ore fines delivered to Qingdao rose 29% from a multiyear low Sept. 7 to around $117 a metric ton Monday, data from The Steel Index showed……

via China iron-ore spot prices surge 30% in just weeks – MarketWatch.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 8, 2012

Asia: China, India and Japan

The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating between 2000 and 2150. Descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2150 is likely and breakout below 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Shenzhen Composite Index is testing primary support at 800. Again, descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term selling pressure. Resistance at 900 is likely to be respected, while breakout below primary support would offer a target of 600*.

Shenzhen Composite Index

* Target calculation: 800 – (1000 – 800 ) = 600

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing support at 8650/8700. Respect would indicate a rally to 9200, while failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure but the long-term picture remains negative. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating between 1950 and 2000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 2000 is likely, followed by a test of the year’s high at 2050.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1900 ) = 2200

India’s Sensex is retracing to test the new support level at 18500. Respect would signal a strong up-trend, but even retracement to 18000 would not be cause for concern. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated from resistance at 3100. Expect another test of support at 3000; confirmed if short-term support at 3050 is breached. Recovery above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3300 — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 2, 2012

Asia: India strong, China and Japan weak

India’s Sensex is holding above 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Narrow consolidation indicates buying pressure and breakout above 3100 would signal an advance to 3300*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a strong primary up-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of support at 8650. Failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Respect of zero (from below) by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below 2000 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of this year’s high at 2050. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2350*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1750 ) = 2350

Chinese exchanges are closed the entire week for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a re-test of 2150. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a decline to 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is closed Monday/Tuesday but will re-open Wednesday. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test 20000 but respect is likely and would signal an advance to 22000.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 19 ) = 21

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 1, 2012

Garnaut’s bitter pill must be swallowed | | MacroBusiness

Interesting quote from Professor Ross Garnaut in the AFR:

He [Professor Garnaut] said Australia’s terms of trade, or income from exports, would be hit by three “mutually reinforcing negatives” under way in China.

The first was a shift in China’s economy away from a focus on heavy industrial investment and exports, which have driven metals and energy demand. The second was a wave of internal reforms including the move towards lower carbon emissions that would cruel demand for Australian thermal coal. The third was the current “cyclical” downturn that was likely to continue.

“It’s an accident they’re coming all at once, but they are,” Professor Garnaut said

From Leith van Onselen at Garnaut’s bitter pill must be swallowed | | MacroBusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 28, 2012

China’s rail cargo volume declined further in August

by Zarathustra

Rail cargo volume growth fell further from -8.2% yoy in July to -9.2% yoy in August, worst since the financial crisis. Cargo volume transported by the railways amounted to 304 million tonnes in August 2012, slightly below 305 million tonnes in July.

via China’s rail cargo volume declined further in August.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 28, 2012

Chinese Yuan hits highest level against USD, but PBOC wants it weaker

by Zarathustra

After a long period since late last year as Chinese Yuan was expected to depreciate, it appears that the expectation of Chinese Yuan appreciation is back on people’s mind. Chinese Yuan hits the highest level since the revaluation started in 2005, completely reversing the depreciation since earlier this year…..

via Chinese Yuan hits highest level against USD, but PBOC wants it weaker.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 28, 2012

China Alters Its Strategy in Dispute With Japan – NYTimes.com

By JANE PERLEZ

Notions of punishing Tokyo economically for buying the islands, whose status was left unclear after World War II, are unrealistic, said Hu Shuli, editor in chief of Caixin Media and one of China’s chief economic journalists. So many Chinese workers are employed at Japanese-owned companies, she said, that any escalation of tensions leading to a boycott of Japanese goods could lead to huge job losses.

This would be disastrous in an already shaky Chinese economy, Ms. Hu wrote in the Chinese magazine Century Weekly……

via China Alters Its Strategy in Dispute With Japan – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.