China & HK Archives - Page 41 of 61

February 11, 2013

Asia: China near 1 year high

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at its 2012 high of 2460 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend, but the index is overdue for a correction and a higher trough is required to confirm the reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index already indicates a primary up-trend. Reversal below 23000, however, would warn of a correction.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is testing its secondary rising trendline, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of the trendline would indicate a correction to test 18000/18200.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index retreated from its 2010 high of 11500. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000. Respect of support would indicate a breakout above 11500 — and a fresh primary advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 5, 2013

Nana Rolland: North Korean Pawn in a Chinese Chess Game – WSJ.com

NANA ROLLAND at WSJ writes:

While it steps up its own provocative actions, including recurrent intrusions into Japanese waters and airspace around the disputed islands, China exhorts the U.S. to restrain its “troublemaking” Japanese friends. The implied linkage is clear: As Beijing tries to forestall North Korean brinksmanship, it expects Washington to do the same.

We have seen this gambit before. In 2003, when Beijing feared that Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian might be inching toward independence, it called on Washington to bring him to heel. In return, it agreed to host multiparty negotiations to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear-weapons programs.

Beijing got the better end of that deal…..

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 5, 2013

Chinese Firms Shrug at Rising Debt | WSJ.com

DINNY MCMAHON And COLUM MURPHY at WSJ write:

Analysts at Standard Chartered PLC estimate that Chinese corporate debt was equivalent to 128% of gross domestic product by the end of 2012, up from 101% at the end of 2009. In a 2011 research paper, economists at the Bank for International Settlements found that when a country’s corporate debt exceeds 90%, it becomes a drag on growth.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

Asia rallies

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 2500. Crossover of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — and breach of the declining trendline — suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2500 would strengthen the signal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex retreated below 20000, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test support at 19000 but long-term buying pressure should ensure that the up-trend continues.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for its 2010 high at 11500. A spike in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would suggest a primary advance to 14500*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

China’s trade data for November disappoint

Zarathustra writes:

China’s export and import growth on a year-on-year basis were both worse than expected for November.

Export rose 2.9% in November compared with the same month last year, down from 11.6% yoy growth in October, and well below consensus estimate of 9.0% yoy, while import was flat compared to a year ago…..

See YOY chart at China’s trade data for November disappoint.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 28, 2013

Cosco Expects Large 2012 Loss | WSJ.com

Colum Murphy at WSJ writes:

SHANGHAI—China Cosco Holdings Co., the country’s largest shipping company by fleet size, said it expects to report a large net loss for 2012, marking the second year of losses in a row and an imminent downgrading of the status of its yuan-denominated A shares by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. State-controlled Cosco, whose businesses include container and dry-bulk shipping as well as port operations, said Friday the expected loss would be the result of a weak container shipping market and high fuel costs.

Weak container shipping reflects poor manufactured exports.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 17, 2013

Stocks: The year ahead

A quick recap of the quarterly chart overview from December 2012:

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum and a lackluster economy suggest that resistance is unlikely to be broken. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a test of support at 1100.

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX Composite Index is gaining momentum. Follow-through above 13000 would indicate another test of 15000.

Apple

Germany’s DAX threatens a breakout above 8000. Follow-through above 8200 would confirm a strong primary advance.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6000, suggesting an advance to 7000.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 21000. Rising momentum indicates breakout is likely, heralding a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lags behind, but breakout above 3300 is likely and would indicate an advance to 3900.

Apple

The Shanghai Composite is headed for a re-test of long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising momentum suggests that a bottom will form at this level. Recovery above 2500 and/or the declining trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China or the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 16, 2013

The China Beige Book Has Some 'Shocking' Data | CNBC

Ansuya Harjani writes:

“In the fourth quarter, we’re seeing corporate loans decline significantly, very shockingly most of our bankers say less than 20 percent of their lending goes to new loans. Most of its going to debt rollovers or increases, they are not funding expansion. That indicates that this is not a period of strong expansion,” Leland Miller, president at CBB [China Beige Book] told CNBC on Wednesday.

via The China Beige Book Has Some 'Shocking' Data.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 12, 2013

Japan, China Scramble Military Jets in East China Sea

J. Michael Cole writes:

Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group, told CNN this week that, “The danger of China-Japan conflict in 2013, for me, is the single biggest geopolitical tension that is underappreciated right now and one we’re going to have watch very carefully.”

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 2, 2013

China: Easing one-child policy may not slow aging population [video]

China could ease its one-child policy to address a rapidly aging population — but as Jane Lee reports, rules aren’t the only thing stopping Chinese families from expanding.

http://youtu.be/0XAYxilsEJc

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.