The ASX 200 is testing short-term resistance at 5300. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure, but the latest hanging man candlestick is bearish. Follow-through above 5320 would indicate an advance to 5400*, while reversal below 5200 would test primary support at 5050.
* Target calculation: 5300 + ( 5300 – 5200 ) = 5400
The ASX 200 VIX below 20 continues to reflect low market risk.
The ASX 200 found short-term support at 5200. Recovery above 5400 would signal another advance, but failure is more likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5050 ) = 5850
The ASX 200 VIX below 20, however, continues to reflect low market risk.
The ASX 200 retracement is testing support at 5300. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Recovery above 5380 would suggest an advance to 5850*. A declining Shanghai Composite could impact on the resources sector. Reversal below the October 2013 low of 5150 is not likely, but would be cause for concern.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5050 ) = 5850
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1810, signaling an advance to 1910*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910
The FTSE 100 completed its correction with a break above the descending trendline. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would offer a target of 7200*, but expect strong resistance at the 1999 high of 6950/7000.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3100, signaling an advance to 3350*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Retracement to test the new support level is likely; respect would strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2850 ) = 3350
Germany’s DAX similarly broke resistance at 9400, offering a target of 10200*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 8600 ) = 10200
India’s SENSEX is testing resistance at 21200 after a correction that respected support at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22200*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 21200 + ( 21200 – 20200 ) = 22200
Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 16000, supported by a strong rise in the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. Breakout signals a primary advance with a long-term target of 19000*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000- 13000 ) = 19000
A single cloud on the horizon, the Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2080. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of 1900*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest support.
* Target calculation: 2080 – ( 2260 – 2080 ) = 1900
The ASX 200 is lagging other markets because of negative influence from China. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 5450 would be cause for concern if followed by reversal below 5300. Breakout above 5450 and completion of a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would signal another primary advance, with a target of 5900*.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5000 ) = 5900
This discussion on SBS Insight from April 24th, 2012 covers the Australian manufacturing dilemna:
There are three major costs in manufacturing: material costs, labor costs and other operating expenses. Roughly equal in size. Material costs are roughly the same, whether you are in Australia or China. Labor costs are radically different, with labor costs of $15 compared to $1 in China. But Australia also can’t compete on other operating expenses, which are far higher because of the labor cost and related benefits…….I can’t see why Australia hasn’t got the sense to turn around. We have been on this path for 30 years…
~ Peter Rodeck, Australian manufacturer EnvironData.
The following graphs from the Productivity Commission Preliminary Report on Australia’s Automotive
Manufacturing Industry give an insight into the problems facing Australian manufacturers.
The first graph compares average hourly labor costs for auto-manufacturers in different countries. Australia is second-highest (behind Germany), in terms of labor cost per hour, and roughly 7 times as high as China and India — ignoring local ABS figures for which there are no comparatives.
The second graph shows how the rising Australian Dollar has impacted on local auto-manufacturing.
The local market is not big enough to sustain a competitive auto-manufacturing industry, but that argument does not seem to have hindered five of the top seven global manufacturers — Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan and Honda — whose local markets are of a similar scale to our own. The difference is that they have adopted a global outlook rather than focusing on their own domestic market as Australia has done.
An increasing amount of the world’s cars are now built in countries such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Thailand, while countries such as Australia, the US, the UK and Belgium have shed workers since 2008.
The [Productivity Commission] report finds labour costs in Australia “relatively high”, although not substantially different to Germany or Japan. “But [they] are four times or more those of China, Thailand and other developing countries where motor vehicle production is expanding,” it found.
Read more at Productivity Commission report says Australian car makers can't compete on labour costs.
The falling Aussie Dollar continues to reflect local market weakness. Breach of primary support at $0.89 against the greenback would indicate a primary decline, with a long-term target of $0.81*. The recent Twiggs Momentum peak below zero also suggests a primary down-trend. Respect of support, and recovery above the descending (orange) trendline, is unlikely but would indicate another rally.
* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81
The ASX 200 correction halted above medium-term support between 4900 and 5000, but there are no signs yet of a reversal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 4900 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Respect of support (4900) and Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line are both unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.
Low values on the ASX 200 VIX continue to reflect low market risk.
The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.
From Houses & Holes
at 9:01am on December 10, 2013:
While the nation continues to debate whether we should let this business go or bail out that business, the real issue continues to be ignored. Indeed it is so far off the radar that cheap shot commentators like Michael Pascoe can make wise cracks about it while the economy burns.
But it’s not funny. It’s not even a little bit amusing. Australians are being slaughtered by emerging markets; gutted by the Japanese; truncated by the Americans and butchered by the Europeans.
I am talking about the global currency war that we are comprehensively losing while having our backs turned.
Qantas, Graincorp, Holden, Electrolux. These are all iconic Australian businesses that have absolutely no reason to fail. Two are virtual monopolies that should be making money on a conveyor belt. The third and fourth are high tech industries that should be tailor made for a smart, developed economy.
But instead all four are failing because they can’t compete with leaner and meaner foreign operations.
Qantas can’t get cheap enough finance and has no access to cheap fuel the way Middle Eastern airlines do. Graincorp is saddled with out-dated infrastructure and can’t seem to raise the capital to renovate itself despite a supposed “dining boom”. Detroit has confessed that Holden is being pulled out owing to a structurally higher dollar and labour costs. Electrolux is the same.
Metals refining, surely an area in which we should have a distinct advantage, is also failing, with last week’s Gove refinery the latest casualty. Processed food exports haven’t grown since 2005 while raw agricultural foodstuffs have jumped. We’ve already lost half of our petrol refining capacity. The Productivity Commission nails all three for dragging down productivity growth owing to high wages, low investment and idle capacity (read the dollar):
As these various businesses pack up their kits, our manufacturing sector is headed for an unbelievable 5% of GDP, by far the lowest in the OECD (making Luxembourg look like an industrial powerhouse) and approaching or past a point at which the inability to produce material for ourselves is also a strategic risk.
Most disconcerting of all is that this is transpiring as we head into a great reckoning in the wider economy. The mining boom is ending, its fabulous capital wave is subsiding, its huge ramp up in employment is ebbing, and over the next three years it will recede as fast as any business investment correction in the last one hundred years. We’ve plenty more gas but are too expensive to extract it. Perth’s Magnolia LNG is headed to Louisiana to produce gas there instead.
The plan to build more unproductive houses to fill the void is a classic kick of the can, adding to capex briefly but adding nothing to productive capacity. In the mean time it keeps our wages and interest rate structure temporarily high and makes the underlying problem worse.
The prospects for productive Australian industry are waning daily. Yet the dollar is still sitting at 90 cents, boosted by the same countries’ central banks that are feasting on our production, and pouring Dutch disease into our ears while we sit back and debate which business is worth saving.
The issue is not who do we bail out. It is how do we reverse the trend of uncompetitiveness that is sweeping everything offshore that is not buried in, or cemented into, the ground. The currency must be actively lowered or it will only drop when the economy does, leaving us bereft of a rebound.
Australian disease is entering its terminal phase, and boy, is it going to be one for the text books.
Reproduced with permission from Macrobusiness.com.au
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