The ASX 200 is growing in confidence. Having penetrated its descending trendline, to suggest a bottom, the index rallied to test resistance at 3400. Rising troughs on 13-week Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Retracement that respects support at 5200 would strengthen the signal, while breakout above 5400 would confirm a primary up-trend.
Australian gold stocks have had a good run since the index (XGD) broke resistance at 2800. At some stage there is bound to be a correction but the up-trend now looks pretty robust, rising 13-week Money Flow confirming buying pressure.
David Llewellyn-Smith sums up Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison’s Budget with one chart:
According to Treasury, Australia’s terms of trade are going to settle at a gentlemanly plateau far higher than they have even been in history outside of the China boom.
Source: Welcome to the Banana Republic Budget – MacroBusiness
Dow Jones Global Index is headed for a test of resistance at 320 after penetrating its descending trendline. Respect of 320 is likely but a bottom is forming and a higher trough would suggest an inverted head-and-shoulders formation. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero is bullish but another low peak would indicate that bears still dominate.
The S&P 500 continues to test the band of resistance at 2100 to 2130. Money Flow remains bullish but I expect stubborn resistance at this level, further strengthened by poor quarterly results, so far, in the earnings season.
A CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at a low 14 indicates that (short-term) market risk is low. Long-term measures are also starting to ease but we maintain high cash levels in our portfolios.
Canada’s TSX 60 is headed for a test of resistance at 825. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Resistance is likely to hold but an ensuing higher trough would be a bullish sign. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum is encouraging but a low peak above zero would indicate that bears still dominate.
Germany’s DAX broke resistance at 10000 and is headed for a test of the descending trendline. Rising Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Retreat below 10000 would warn of another decline.
* Target calculation: 9500 – ( 11000 – 9500 ) = 8000
The Footsie is headed for a test of 6500. Rising Money Flow suggests decent buying pressure. Respect of resistance is likely but a bottom is forming and an ensuing higher trough would suggest a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 6000 – ( 6500 – 6000 ) = 5500
The Shanghai Composite Index retreated below 3000. Breach of medium-term support at 2900 would warn of another test of primary support at 2700. Rising Money Flow suggests that breach of primary support is unlikely.
* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 2400
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 17000, a higher trough signaling a primary up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 17000. Rising Money Flow confirms buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 17000 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000
India’s Sensex is testing its upper trend channel at 26000. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming. Respect, indicated by reversal below 25000, would warn of another test of primary support.
* Target calculation: 23000 – ( 25000 – 23000 ) = 21000
A sharp fall in the Australian Dollar as result of record low inflation numbers may precipitate some selling by international buyers. Further weakness in iron ore would impact both the ASX and the Aussie Dollar.
The ASX 200 has also penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming. But bearish divergence on 13-week Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Retreat below 5000 would warn of another test of primary support at 4700.
* Target calculation: 4700 – ( 5200 – 4700 ) = 4200
From Justin Smirk at Westpac:
The headline CPI surprised in Q1 falling 0.2% compared to Westpac’s forecast for +0.4%….. The annual rate is now just 1.3%yr compared to 1.7%yr in Q4.
The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.2% compared to the market’s expectation of 0.5% rise…. The annual pace of the average of the core inflation measures is now 1.5% from 2.0% in Q4 (Q4 was unrevised) and is the lowest print we have yet seen from this measure.
From Jens Meyer at The Age:
Today’s weak inflation numbers are a game changer for the Reserve Bank that will trigger a rate cut, says JPMorgan head of fixed income and foreign exchange strategy Sally Auld.
The investment bank now expects the RBA to cut by 0.25 percentage points next week and to follow this up with a further 25 basis points cut in August, taking the cash rate to 1.50 per cent.
Smirk disagrees:
…..But low inflation, on its own, is not a trigger for a rate cut. Sure, it unlocks the interest rate door for the RBA should it decide it needs to walk through that door as the Bank would not have to wait for another CPI update before doing so. However, it does not mean that the RBA will cut rates! A rate cut is dependent on local economic conditions demanding a rate cut. With unemployment on a new downtrend this is not so at the moment and we suggest that the RBA is waiting to see a new weaker trend in domestic activity and employment before it would embark on such a strategy.
Source: Australian 14 CPI 2016 | Westpac
Source: Three reasons for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut official interest rates in May
From Frik Els:
According to Platts Mineral Value Service, a Munich-based iron ore and steel research company, domestic iron ore’s contribution to the Chinese steel market has declined from 36% of market share in 2010 to around 22% in 2015.
Domestic iron ore output from an industry plagued by fragmentation, high costs and low grades (only around 20% Fe) has halved since 2013 and may dip below 200 million tonnes Fe 62% equivalent this year…..
Even if more Chinese mines shut down and the shift to seaborne ore continues, the seaborne market is not exactly short of tonnage. All-in-all new seaborne supply set to increase by approximately 245 million tonnes by end of 2018 according to Platts MVS.
The big three – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – last week lowered future production guidance, but the aggregate 35 million tonnes in possible lost production hardly changes the oversupply picture and the giants would still hit actual annual output records even at these lowered levels. Citigroup’s analysts expect around an additional 75 million tonnes of iron ore this year to be shipped out of Australia, more than a third of which would come from Roy Hill. The Gina Rinehart mine has brought forward ramp-up plans and now expects to be producing at full annualized capacity of 55 million tonnes by the end of this year. Later this year, Rio’s board is likely to give the go-ahead to build Silvergrass which would add another 20 million tonnes of high-grade, low cost ore to the company’s Pilbara output.
Source: Iron ore price: Only question now is how rapid the fall | MINING.com
Ruth Liew:
….the Reserve Bank of Australia pushes Australian banks to create the New Payments Platform, a new piece of open-source infrastructure being built that will move the payments system to real time. The RBA’s plans are echoed by the US and the eurozone, which are also planning to roll out real time payment infrastructure by next year. These payments would boost Australia’s economic activity, as money flow improves and Australians access their funds as they are deposited, [Don Sharp at InPayTech] argued.
Australian banks could lose $2.5 billion in interest earnings if instantaneous payments were adopted – and the figure could jump significantly as interest rates rise.
Payments held in the banking system are part of the “float” which banks use for interest-free funding of part of their balance sheet — a boost to interest margins. Switch to a realtime payments system would see this disappear.
Source: InPayTech plots capital raise and ASX IPO as real-time payments take off
Mark Mulligan:
“Australia continues to swim strongly against the global tide, shrugging off China’s slowdown, rotten commodity prices and a fast fading resource construction boom to chalk up good growth,” said Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson…..
“A stronger Australian dollar … could, if it is sustained, start to take the cream off the cake of the non-mining growth story,’ said Mr Richardson, “with some of the recent gains in tourism and international education potentially at risk, and the possibility of the blowtorch to the belly going back onto the nation’s long-suffering manufacturers and farmers.”
The Australian Dollar is too strong given the current headwinds facing the economy. Having closely tracked commodity prices since 2009, recent divergence has the Aussie rallying to test resistance at 80 US cents. Failure of negotiations among major oil producers, in Doha, to institute a production freeze, may be just the catalyst needed to spark another decline. This time with a target of 60 US cents.
* Target calculation: 70 – ( 80 – 70 ) = 60
Source: Deloitte Access Economics says China, housing and high $A test Aussie resilience
By Leith van Onselen. Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness.
The Australian’s Adam Creighton has written a ripper post explaining why, in the wake of tax avoidance scandals (e.g. multinational and the Panama Papers), a broad-based land tax is needed more than ever, but will never see the light of day due to vested interests and weak politicians:
Windfall gains to private land owners stemming from developments outside their control are a far better object for taxation than income and consumption, which prop up vast avoidance industries…
Taxes on land are unique economically because they can’t be avoided and they don’t distort supply…
In fact, over time land tax (which should apply only to the unimproved part) could even reduce rents by encouraging development, including more apartments, on undeveloped land…
Land taxes may well be fairer, too. Just as the owners of land adjacent to new railway stations have done nothing to generate their windfall, land owners don’t lift a finger to generate increases in unimproved land values…
A comprehensive national, flat rate tax on unimproved land taxes was part of Labor’s platform from 1891 to 1905. The party should consider resurrecting this policy and using the proceeds entirely to slash personal income and/or company tax to unleash a productivity, investment and spending boom. This would help affordability; property prices would automatically fall…
A 1 per cent annual land tax without any exemptions could raise around $44bn based on the ABS’s estimates…
The economic ignorance and self-interest of land owners will, however, prevent any shift towards land tax, however beneficial it might be in the long run for almost everyone.
Vested interests would launch a hysterical defence of existing arrangements, wrongly claiming poor renters would be harmed.
Others would argue even stupid policies can’t be changed because some people have arranged their affairs around them.
Creighton has nailed it.
Land taxes are one of the most efficient sources of tax available, actually creating positive welfare gains to the domestic population of $0.10 for each dollar raised, since non-resident home owners are also taxed (see below Treasury chart).
Even just switching inefficient stamp duties (which cost the economy $0.70 per dollar raised) to a broad-based land tax would produce an estimated 1.5% increase in GDP, or $24 billion, without changing the amount of tax raised.
Unfortunately, while the arguments for shifting the tax base towards land taxes are impeccable, there are several key factors holding politicians back.
Consider the proposal to merely junk stamp duties in favour of a broad-based land tax levied on all land holders.
As shown by the RBA, only around 6% of the housing stock is transacted on average in a given year:
This means that in a given year, only a small minority of households pay stamp duty (albeit tens-of-thousands of dollars of dollars). And once they pay it, they automatically become a roadblock to reform (“why should I pay tax twice”, is the common retort).
While having such a small group of taxpayers supporting services for the whole community is ridiculous, rather than governments sharing the tax burden by levying each household a much smaller amount on a regular basis, it is far easier politically to tax a small group than everyone.
The other major roadblock with land taxes is that they would be levied on retirees that are asset (house) rich but cash poor. They would, therefore, squeal like stuffed pigs if they were required to pay tax.
The obvious solutions to these roadblocks are:
However, even with such arrangements in place, politicians would still face the option of maintaining the status quo and taxing only a small number of people each year (easy) versus reforming and taxing almost everyone (hard).
Add in a fierce scare campaign from the property lobby – especially if land taxes were extended beyond just stamp duties to replace income taxes – and the likelihood of achieving meaningful reform is slim, especially with the current useless crop of politicians.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 4.0% in April from 99.1 in March to 95.1 in April.
Not a good time to buy stocks — other than gold — I suggest.
You must be logged in to post a comment.