Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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Australia's Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com

Cynthia Koons: Not only were [Australian] exports down, but imports declined too. Imports of goods for consumption fell 7%, reflecting caution in Australian households. Capital goods imports fell by 5%, a number that should be a particular concern for policy makers: A slowdown in purchases of machinery and equipment could be an early sign that investment in Australia’s resources boom is weakening.

via Heard on the Street: Australia’s Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com.

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling & Yen

The Euro continues in a primary down-trend, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum respecting the zero line from below. Failure of medium-term support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breach of $1.26 would warn of a decline to $1.18*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

The rise above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that Pound Sterling commenced a primary up-trend. But respect of resistance at $1.60 indicates another test of $1.56. Respect of $1.56 would signal another advance, while failure would warn of a primary decline with a target of $1.46*.

Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen after a strong rally. A short correction is likely and would signal another strong advance; breakout above ¥84 would offer a target of ¥88*. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm the primary up-trend.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

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Forex: Aussie Dollar & Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term support at $1.04 — in response to lower than expected resources exports to China and RBA hints at further rate cuts. Expect a strong correction, testing parity and possibly primary support at $0.97. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate trend weakness but suggests a ranging market, with the indicator oscillating around zero, rather than a primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie is more resilient because of stronger crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal an advance to $1.06. Reversal below $0.995 is less likely but would warn of another correction — especially if crude oil weakens.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

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Crude oil & commodities

Brent crude continues to consolidate below resistance at $125/$126 per barrel. Upward breakout would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of $150*. Reversal below $122 is less likely but would warn of a correction to test support at $115.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. And failure of primary support at 295 would signal a decline to 265*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (from below) warns of continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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Gold falls as the dollar rallies

The Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 80.00. Breakout would indicate respect of the rising trendline and another primary advance. Recovery above 82 would confirm the target of 86*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would also strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot gold responded by testing support at $1600/ounce. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would indicate respect of the rising trendline and continuation of the long-term up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is in a clear primary down-trend since breaking support at 500. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a strong down-trend. Spot gold is likely to follow unless the Fed changes course and announces further quantitative easing.

Gold Bugs Index

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Brazil & South Africa

Brazil’s Bovespa Index is in a primary up-trend but currently undergoing a correction. Respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line would strengthen the signal.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index indicates medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. A correction that respects support at 33000 would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 36000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 34.5 + ( 34.5 – 33 ) = 36

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UK & Europe correction

Dow Jones Europe Index respected resistance at 260, suggesting another correction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; but a trough that respects the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 240 would also suggest an up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test of support at 5600. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend, as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

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Canada: TSX 60 resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 695/700. Another large 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend — as would breakout above 730. Initial target for the advance would be 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

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Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

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India & Singapore

India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

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