Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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Dimon may be ‘stupid,’ but he’s right on banks – MarketWatch

David Weidner: A return to Glass-Steagall in the U.S. would effectively force the world to separate traditional banking from casino banking.

That system would be attractive to both sides. The banking system that holds our loans, our deposits, debts and assets would be separate from a Wild West free market unfettered by bank regulators and their constant worries about risk.

So why can’t the big financial institutions get behind this one? Simple. They want to gamble your money in the casino.

via Dimon may be ‘stupid,’ but he’s right on banks – David Weidner’s Writing on the Wall – MarketWatch.

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Japan & South Korea

Dow Jones Japan Index is headed for a test of primary support at 47. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Failure of support would resume the primary down-trend, offering a target of 38*.

Dow Jones Japan Index

* Target calculation: 48 – ( 58 – 48 ) = 38

Dow Jones South Korea Index reflects stronger support on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, but reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would still warn of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 380 would confirm.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

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China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index is retreating from primary resistance at 2500. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of continuation of the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2500 is unlikely but would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reversed below primary support at 20000 on the weekly chart. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal, offering an initial target of 17500.

Hang Seng Index

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India & Singapore

India’s Sensex broke the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 16500, indicating a test of primary support at 15000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 15000 would offer a target of 12000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 15 – ( 18 – 15 ) = 12

The Nifty is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 4500. Failure would confirm the primary down-trend indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero.

NSE Nifty Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke medium-term support at 2900. The primary trend is still up but expect a test of support at the rising trendline (2800). Failure of support and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would both warn of a primary down-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

Dow Jones Singapore Index is similarly testing medium-term support at 230. Failure would indicate a test of the primary level at 210. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure; reversal below zero would have long-term implications.

Dow Jones Singapore Index

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UK & Europe warn of primary down-trend

Dow Jones Europe Index broke medium-term support at 240, warning of another test of primary support at 210. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support would confirm.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 broke medium-term support at 5600, indicating another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the rising trendline and retreat of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero both warn of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

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Australia: ASX 200

Australia’s ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 4250. Failure would indicate a correction to test primary support at 4000. Bearish divergence and reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warn of medium-term selling pressure.

ASX 200 Index Daily Chart

 

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Canada: TSX 60

The TSX 60 is testing primary support at 650. Failure would signal a primary down-trend, already indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, however, continues to reflect reasonable buying pressure so we need to guard against a bear trap.

TSX 60 Index
TSX 60 Index Twiggs Money Flow

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 725 – 650 ) = 575

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction

The S&P 500 broke support at 1340 to confirm the correction. Initial target is 1300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure signaled by an earlier bearish divergence . Recovery above 1360 is most unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1360 – ( 1420 – 1360 ) = 1300

A similar 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signal on the Nasdaq 100 warns of medium-term selling pressure. Retracement respected resistance at 2630, confirming a correction. Initial target is 2500*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2630 – ( 2760 – 2630 ) = 2500

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CNBC: Is the US headed for another recession?

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI sticks to his forecast of a double-dip:

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The Real Reasons People Drop Out of the Workforce

“Labor force participation for unskilled men has dropped off the table the last few decades,” [Timothy Taylor, managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives] said. “Wages for that group aren’t high enough to encourage them to work. For a lot of those men, going on disability may be a better option. Working off the books may be going on. The benefits of working at $10 or $11 an hour just isn’t enticing 50-year-old men into the labor force,” he said.

Another factor in play: there were an estimated 2.3 million people in U.S. prisons at the end of 2010, the highest rate of incarceration in the world. That’s quadruple the number imprisoned in 1980. The rate of imprisonment has gone from 100 per 100,000 people in the mid-1970s to 500 per 100,000 today.

via The Real Reasons People Drop Out of the Workforce.

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