The ASX 200 continues in a narrow consolidation between 4300 and 4150, indicating uncertainty. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is a positive sign and recovery above 10% would suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4300 would likewise suggest an up-trend, while follow-through above 4400 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 5000
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is in a primary up-trend. Having retraced briefly, it appears to have found support at 21000. Recovery above 21500 would signal an advance to 22500*.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500
The Shanghai Composite Index, however, remains in a primary down-trend. Breakout above 2500 would, however, suggest that the trend is weakening. Respect of support at 2300 would suggest reversal to a primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of another decline.
* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2500 – 2100 ) = 1700
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke through resistance at 10000. Follow-through above 10200 would indicate a further advance as signaled by sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. The rally is becoming dangerously extended and a correction to test support would add stability.
* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000
South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is already in a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again signals strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 2050 would signal an advance to 2200*.
* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1700 ) = 2200
The Sensex respected support at 17000. Recovery above 18000 would indicate a primary up-trend and follow-through above 18500 would confirm. Respect of zero by the latest trough on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would further strengthen the signal. Target for the advance is 21000*.
* Target calculation: 18 + ( 18 – 15 ) = 21
The NSE Nifty shows a similar pattern. Follow-through above 5600 would offer a target of 6200*.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200
Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend, as signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero. Recovery above 3000 confirms an advance to 3300*.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300
Dow Jones Europe Index broke through 260 to signal a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 310*.
* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310
Italy’s MIB Index reflects a similar pattern, signaling an advance to 21000*.
* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 13000 ) = 21000
The FTSE 100 is already in a primary up-trend. A trough high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure and a likely breakout above resistance at 6100.
* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5000 ) = 6400
The DAX shows similar strong buying pressure and breakout above the 2011 high of 7500 is likely.
* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 5400 ) = 7400
Canada’s TSX 60 Index found support at 700, above the rising trendline. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 720 would confirm an advance to 790*.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
The Nasdaq 100 rallied strongly this last week, closing on its revised target of 2750*. Steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Extension of the rally above the target would be risky and we are likely to see retracement to test the new support level and (long-term) rising trendline at 2400.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750
The S&P 500 followed through after its breakout above 1370, signaling continuation of the primary up-trend. Expect retracement to confirm support at 1350 before an advance to our target of 1450.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
Christian Rickens: So has Greece been rescued and financial markets been tamed? Is the euro crisis a thing of the past? Unfortunately not. With their successes in the last few days, euro-zone politicians have done little more than bought themselves time. They must use this window to brace themselves for the next wave of the euro crisis which is about to crash down on Europe.
It’s already clear that the Greek economy can’t survive with a government debt to GDP ratio that will — at best — still be at 117 percent in 2020, especially given the record pace at which the country’s GDP is contracting. There is still no coherent strategy for making Greece competitive again inside the euro zone, or for raising the capital for the huge investments needed — let alone for the wholesale revamp of the country’s entire public administration.
And so Greece is likely to report the next set of disappointing budget figures in a few months, and the wrangling over a new debt cut and a new rescue package will start shortly afterwards……
The other euro-zone governments have at most a few more months, perhaps only a few weeks, before the situation in Greece worsens again……That means that Portugal, Spain and Italy, the three other problem countries in the south of the euro zone, must perform the magic trick of stimulating growth while reducing their budget deficits. That can only succeed with a lot of pragmatism — austerity without growth is as pointless as growth without austerity.
Marc Faber: I do not believe that the central banks around the world will ever, and I repeat ever, reduce their balance sheets. They’ve gone the path of money printing and once you choose that path you’re in it, and you have to print more money.
If you start to print, it has the biggest impact. Then you print more – it has a lesser impact unless you increase the rate of money printing very significantly. And, the third money printing has even less impact. And the problem is like the Fed: they printed money because they wanted to lift the housing market, but the housing market is the only asset that didn’t go up substantially.
In general, I think that the purchasing power of money has diminished very significantly over the last ten, twenty, thirty years, and will continue to do so.
via MARC FABER: Beware The Unintended Consequences Of Money Printing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=f7iK4DHPr9E#!
[23 minutes]
