Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

May 17, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada, South Africa

Canada’s Loonie broke support at $0.995 and the rising trendline against the greenback, indicating another test of primary support at $0.95. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.95 would confirm.

Canadian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is expected to follow commodities lower, testing primary support at $0.96. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another primary decline. Recovery above $1.02 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to $1.08.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar strengthened against the South African Rand, but respect of resistance at R8.30 would warn of a decline to R7.50*. Breach of support at R7.90 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty, however, and breakout above R8.30 would test long-term resistance at R8.50.

Australian Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 17, 2012

Commodities point to lower stock prices

The CRB Commodities Index broke support at 295, warning of another primary decline. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to fall.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 17, 2012

Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Nymex WTI Light Crude broke support at $96/barrel, warning of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal, while follow-through below $93 would confirm.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 95 – ( 110 – 95 ) = 80

Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $110/barrel. Failure would indicate a fall to the primary level at $103. Follow-through below $100 would offer a long-term target of $75/barrel*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 17, 2012

Dollar rallies while Gold & Silver fall

The Dollar Index is testing primary resistance at 81.50 on the weekly chart. Respect of zero by the latest 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Follow-through above 82 would signal an advance to 86*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold broke support at $1550/ounce on the daily chart. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at $1600 but a sharp fall below zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $1500 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $1200*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

Spot Silver is testing primary support at $26/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero already indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of $16/ounce*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 16, 2012

Attention Frustrated Chartists: It Ain't High-Frequency Trading, It's The Macro – Seeking Alpha

To me, the Occam’s Razor explanation for why charts have gone Daffy Duck is not because of [HFT]robots, but simply because the macro environment has been bizarre … like “unprecedented in history” bizarre. And it’s been this way for a while now.

via Attention Frustrated Chartists: It Ain't High-Frequency Trading, It's The Macro – Seeking Alpha.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 16, 2012

Alan Simpson: No Solution to Debt Without Crisis – WSJ Online

Former Senator Alan Simpson, Co-Chair of President Obama’s Fiscal Commission, doesn’t believe the national debt can be solved without a financial or political crisis. He speaks with WSJ’s Alan Murray at the latest Wall Street Journal Viewpoints panel.

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 16, 2012

FedEx CEO on China's Effect on Global Market – WSJ Online

FedEx CEO Frederick W. Smith talks about how exports to China remain stagnant given China’s recent protectionist policies and its focus on “indigenous innovation.” He speaks with WSJ’s Alan Murray at Viewpoints West.

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 16, 2012

FedEx CEO on How Tax Policy Weakens U.S. Economy – WSJ online

FedEx CEO Frederick W. Smith talks about how capital investment and lowering corporate tax rates are the main solutions to creating U.S. jobs. He speaks with WSJ’s Alan Murray at Viewpoints West.

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 16, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 breaks support

The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 4250 with a large red candle, signaling another test of primary support at 3980/4000. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below the zero line confirms strong selling pressure. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 15, 2012

Dimon may be ‘stupid,’ but he’s right on banks – MarketWatch

David Weidner: A return to Glass-Steagall in the U.S. would effectively force the world to separate traditional banking from casino banking.

That system would be attractive to both sides. The banking system that holds our loans, our deposits, debts and assets would be separate from a Wild West free market unfettered by bank regulators and their constant worries about risk.

So why can’t the big financial institutions get behind this one? Simple. They want to gamble your money in the casino.

via Dimon may be ‘stupid,’ but he’s right on banks – David Weidner’s Writing on the Wall – MarketWatch.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.