Author: Colin Twiggs

Posted on

Forex: Aussie Dollar & Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term support at $1.04 — in response to lower than expected resources exports to China and RBA hints at further rate cuts. Expect a strong correction, testing parity and possibly primary support at $0.97. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate trend weakness but suggests a ranging market, with the indicator oscillating around zero, rather than a primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie is more resilient because of stronger crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal an advance to $1.06. Reversal below $0.995 is less likely but would warn of another correction — especially if crude oil weakens.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Posted on

Crude oil & commodities

Brent crude continues to consolidate below resistance at $125/$126 per barrel. Upward breakout would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of $150*. Reversal below $122 is less likely but would warn of a correction to test support at $115.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. And failure of primary support at 295 would signal a decline to 265*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (from below) warns of continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Posted on

Gold falls as the dollar rallies

The Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 80.00. Breakout would indicate respect of the rising trendline and another primary advance. Recovery above 82 would confirm the target of 86*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would also strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot gold responded by testing support at $1600/ounce. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would indicate respect of the rising trendline and continuation of the long-term up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is in a clear primary down-trend since breaking support at 500. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a strong down-trend. Spot gold is likely to follow unless the Fed changes course and announces further quantitative easing.

Gold Bugs Index

Posted on

Brazil & South Africa

Brazil’s Bovespa Index is in a primary up-trend but currently undergoing a correction. Respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line would strengthen the signal.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index indicates medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. A correction that respects support at 33000 would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 36000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 34.5 + ( 34.5 – 33 ) = 36

Posted on

UK & Europe correction

Dow Jones Europe Index respected resistance at 260, suggesting another correction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; but a trough that respects the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 240 would also suggest an up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test of support at 5600. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend, as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

Posted on

Canada: TSX 60 resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 695/700. Another large 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend — as would breakout above 730. Initial target for the advance would be 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

Posted on

Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

Posted on

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Posted on

Japan selling pressure but South Korea holds firm

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test the new support level at 9000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below resistance at 2050. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2050 would indicate an advance to 2150*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

Posted on

China weakens

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2300, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 2150 would confirm the signal, offering a target of 1800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, is correcting to test medium-term support at 20000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm, offering an initial target of 23000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance Service By Website Helper