Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 695/700. Another large 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend — as would breakout above 730. Initial target for the advance would be 790*.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.
* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450
The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750
Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.
* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78
India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.
* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000
The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200
Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300
Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test the new support level at 9000.
* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000
South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below resistance at 2050. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2050 would indicate an advance to 2150*.
* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150
China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2300, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 2150 would confirm the signal, offering a target of 1800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, is correcting to test medium-term support at 20000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm, offering an initial target of 23000*.
* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000
The ASX 200 broke medium-term resistance at 4300, indicating an advance to 4400. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4400 would confirm, offering an initial target of 4800*.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
The biggest obstacle to an ASX up-trend is weakness in China. Signs that a bottom is forming would boost the ASX but that is not evident at present.
Overall, for the 15 years to June 2011, the average ROR for the superannuation industry was positive, with a 15-year average ROR of 5.2 per cent per annum. The average industry-wide ROR, when adjusted for the 2.7 per cent per annum inflation, provided a real return of 2.5 per cent per annum.
Most funds which existed for the whole period had a 15-year average fund-level ROR of between 3.9 and 6.5 per cent per annum.
The Euro is headed for another test of resistance at $1.35. Breakout would signal an initial advance to $1.40. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.30 ) = 1.40
Pound Sterling displays a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.60. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Initial target for the breakout would be $1.64.
* Target calculation: 1.60 + ( 1.60 – 1.56 ) = 1.64
The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen, testing medium-term support at ¥82. A short retracement is likely and respect of support at ¥82 would signal another strong advance.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 82 ) = 86
Canada’s Loonie continues a narrow consolidation below $1.01, suggesting an upward breakout in response to higher oil prices. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance. Target for the advance would be the 2011 high of $1.06. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Aussie Dollar reflects broader weakness in commodities. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to test primary support at $0.96, while respect would indicate another test of $1.08 — and suggest an upward breakout.
Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00. Narrow consolidation suggests a downward breakout and test of the long-term trendline at R7.50. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
Brent crude is consolidating in a narrow range below $125/$126 per barrel. Upward breakout is likely and would offer a long-term target of $150.
* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150
Despite the weakening dollar, CRB Commodities Index is testing medium-term support at 310. Failure would indicate another test of primary support at 295. Breach of the long-term rising trendline would warn that the 4-year up-trend (similar to that of gold) is coming to an end. Recovery above 330 is as likely, however, and would signal the start of a primary advance, with a long-term target of 350.
* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 295 ) = 355
