Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

May 2, 2012

FRB| Governor Tarullo: Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis

It is sobering to recognize that, more than four years after the failure of Bear Stearns began the acute phase of the financial crisis, so much remains to be done–in implementing reforms that have already been developed, in modifying or supplementing these reforms as needed, and in fashioning a reform program to address shadow banking concerns. For some time my concern has been that the momentum generated during the crisis will wane or be redirected to other issues before reforms have been completed. As you can tell from my remarks today, this remains a very real concern.

via FRB: Speech–Tarullo, Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis–May 2, 2012.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 1, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is consolidating between 9400 and 9700. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breakout below 9400 would test 9000. Recovery above 9700 is less likely but would indicate the start of another primary advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

The Seoul Composite Index is testing support at 1950. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 2150*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950+ ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 1, 2012

India & Singapore find support

India’s Sensex index found support at 17000. Recovery above 17500 would indicate respect of the support level and another attempt at 18500. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero already indicates a primary up-trend but only recovery above the November high of 18000 would confirm. Target for an advance would be 20000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 17.0 ) = 20.0

The Nifty index is similarly testing support at 5200, while recovery above 5400 would confirm the primary up-trend. Target for an advance would be 6000*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5600 + (5600 – 5200) = 6000

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues in a narrow consolidation above the double-bottom neckline at 2900, suggesting continuation of the primary up-trend. Target for the expected breakout would be 3200*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Hong Kong & China

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index is holding above support at 410. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend already signaled by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross above zero.

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index

The Hang Seng similarly respected support at 20000, indicating a primary up-trend, while rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure.
Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 17.5 ) = 22.5

The Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 2500. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2750

A primary up-trend on the Shanghai index would boost the recovery in Australia.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

ASX 200 tests 4400

Australia’s ASX 200 index is testing the band of resistance between 4350 and 4400. Breakout would confirm the primary up-trend signaled by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Target for the long-term ascending triangle would be the 2011 high at 4900*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + (4400 – 3900) = 4900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

UK & Europe: Madrid at 2009 low

The monthly chart of the Madrid General Index is testing its 2009 low of 700. With unemployment rates (24.4 per cent) similar to the US Great Depression and more than half of Spaniards under 25 jobless, there is no recovery in sight. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support at 700 would signal another primary decline.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

Italy’s MIB Index is more resilient, with recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicating buying pressure. Expect another test of resistance at 17000.
Italy MIB Index
The CAC-40 monthly chart shows France in a similar fix. Failure of support at 3100 would indicate another test of primary support, close to the 2009 low of 2500. Recovery above 3600, however, would indicate another test of 4000 — especially if accompanied by recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10%.
France CAC-40 Index

The German DAX respected support at 6500, confirming the primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Expect another test of 7500.
Germany DAX Index

The FTSE 100 respected support at 5600 and breakout above 5800 would signal an advance to 6400*. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 5600 is unlikely but would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5600 ) = 6400

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Fedex

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues to test support at $88, the neckline for a double top reversal. Long tails on the last two candles suggest short-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. A close below $86.50 would confirm that economic activity is declining.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 96 – 88 ) = 80

long-term

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 continues to consolidate between 675 and 700. Upward breakout would suggest a primary advance to 775*, while failure of support would target the primary level at 650. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, favoring resumption of the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 675 ) = 775

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 respected support at 1350/1370, again confirming the primary up-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum in December 2011. Immediate target for the advance is 1450*. Reversal below 1350 is unlikely but would warn of a correction to 1300.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 gapped above 2700, on its way to a re-test of resistance at 2800. Completion of the flag formation indicates another primary advance. Reversal below 2650 is unlikely but would warn of a stronger correction. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also give a bear warning, while respect of the zero line would indicate buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2650 ) = 2950

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 28, 2012

Abundance of land, shortage of housing | Institute of Economic Affairs

Kristian Niemietz looks at how housing costs in the UK have exploded in recent decades. Real-terms house prices in 2011 were more than two-and-a-half-times higher than in 1975, with rent levels following suit. In the USA, Germany and Switzerland, real-terms house prices are still close to their 1975 levels.

· Housing affordability measures show housing to be unaffordable in every single one of the 33 regions in the UK.

· The main difference between the UK and its north-western European neighbours is not in demographics, but in completion rates of new dwellings.

· Empirical evidence from around the world shows that planning restrictions are the key determinant of housing costs.

via Abundance of land, shortage of housing | Institute of Economic Affairs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.