Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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Spot gold tests $1530

The Dollar Index followed through after last week’s breakout above resistance at 81.50/82.00, confirming the fresh advance signaled by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero. Target for the advance is 86.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

On the daily chart, spot gold tests medium-term support at $1530/ounce. Long tails indicate buying support but the rising dollar continues to apply downward pressure. Breach of support and follow-through below $1500 would signal a long-term decline to $1200/ounce*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) already indicates a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1600 is less likely but would indicate that the down-trend is weakening.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

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Treasury yields fall as investors flee stocks

Treasury yields fell through the key support level of 1.70 percent as investors, seeking a safe haven, flowed into bonds. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of further easing.

10-Year US Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.70 – ( 2.40 – 1.70 ) = 1.0

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Australia: ASX 200 breaks triangle

The monthly chart of the ASX 200 displays a downward breakout from the ascending triangle, forming since September 2011, offering a target of the 2008 low at 3200*. Reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also suggests continuation of the primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3800 – ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 3200

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India & Singapore

The BSE Sensex found medium-term support at 16000/15800 but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 15000/15200. Failure would offer a target of 12000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 15 – ( 18 − 15 ) = 12

With almost half of foreign bank funding sourced from Europe, India is experiencing significant tightening of external finance and hence domestic investment.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing medium-term support at 2750. Failure would test primary support at 2600. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a strong primary down-trend. Recovery above 2900 is unlikely but would indicate continuation of the primary up-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2600 – ( 2900 − 2600 ) = 2300

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How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less

Andy Xie, an independent economist in China, said European countries without a competitive advantage must simply work harder or spend less. Alternatively, if they want to keep living it up, they will have to accept wrenching labor reforms and deregulation.

Xie saw no popular consent for either course of action. Nor did he detect that Europe was tightening its belt as urgently as Asia did after its 1997/98 financial crisis. “While eurozone economies have contracted a bit, people seem to be bent on enjoying life as usual,” Xie wrote in New Century weekly, a Chinese publication. “China cannot save Europe. No one can. Only Europeans can, through increasing work relative to leisure.”

via How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less.

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Conversations with Great Minds – Paul Krugman – End This Depression Now

Thom Hartmann is joined by Nobel Prize winning economist Dr. Paul Krugman, professor of economics and current affairs at Princeton University and columnist on the New York Times. His new book is titled: End This Depression Now. Europe is in crisis mode. The United States could be headed off a fiscal cliff at the end of the year.

Part 2:

Comment:~ Paul Krugman believes in big government and big unions and dismisses the alternative as “voodoo economics”. The issues are more complicated than this. John Maynard Keynes was right in some areas — austerity does not restore confidence in a shrinking economy — but over-simplistic in others. If governments do run deficits — I believe this is a necessary evil during a financial crisis — increasing government spending on welfare payments and non-productive assets simply carries the country to the next crisis — ballooning public debt. The only way to avoid this is to channel fiscal deficits into productive investment which will enhance GDP growth and help to repay the debt incurred.

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Spain's Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com

Spain’s economy showed fresh strain as retail sales fell at a record pace in April, showing the government’s austerity program is strangling consumption and suggesting deepening recession. Data Tuesday from the National Statistics Institute, or INE, showed seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 9.8% on the year in April, compared with a 3.8% drop in March. The decline was the sharpest since INE started collecting the data in January 2004. Household spending is dropping as unemployment approaches 25% of the work force.

via Spain’s Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com.

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Australia: ASX 200 consolidation

Asia consolidated today and the ASX 200 was no exception, rallying off short-term support at 4020. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 4150 would indicate a test of primary support at 3980/4000.  Failure of support would offer a target of 3600*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600

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Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is consolidating above 18500 on the weekly chart.  Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, strengthening the bear signal from 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breach of 18500 would test primary support at 17500 — and breach of 17500 would offer a target of 15000*. Recovery above 20000 remains unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 17500 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000

Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of primary support at 2250; breach would offer a target of 2000*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2500 is unlikely but would signal a primary advance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

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UK & Europe

Dow Jones Europe Index found medium-term support at 220 but reversal of  13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 210 would signal a decline to 160*, close to the 2009 low. Respect of support is less likely but would indicate a rally to 260.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160

The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5250 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains above zero but 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 5000/5100 would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

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