JPMorgan Chase & Co lost $2 billion on a failed hedge, an unexpected revelation that hit hard the bank that had been seen as the smartest and safest player through the credit crisis that began to erupt in 2007.
via Dimon in the Rough: JP Morgan Loses $2B on Failed Trade.
Comment: Writing good headlines is an art. Occasionally you find a gem like this. It wins my vote for headline of the week.
Paul Krugman: Germany believes that its successful adjustment was the result of its own virtue, but in reality it was successful in large part because of an inflationary boom in the rest of Europe.
And here’s the thing: the Germans are now demanding that the European periphery replicate its achievement (and actually surpass it, because the required adjustment is much bigger) without providing a comparably favorable environment — they’re demanding that Spain and others do what they never did, which is deflate their way to competitiveness.
This is a road to disaster.
Take out government-owned student loans and there has been virtually no rebound in consumer credit since the Great Recession ended. Restated, the consumer has not been borrowing since the Great Recession has ended. Rather, students took advantage of below-market rates on loans provided by the government starting in 2009…….“Most of the improvement in credit is a function of the explosion student loan debt,” said Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The reason student loan debt is exploding? Because the youth population is having difficulty finding work. Hardly a good reason for credit extension.”
via Consumer Credit – Worse Than You Think | The Big Picture.
India’s Sensex is testing support at 16500 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Recovery above 17500 would signal the start of a fresh primary advance. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 16500 would test the band of primary support above 15000.
The Nifty is similarly testing support at 5000. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns that the primary down-trend will continue, but recovery above the descending trendline at 5200 would indicate that the correction is over.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell sharply to test medium-term support at 2900. Failure would indicate a correction to the rising trendline. Respect of support, especially if strengthened by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero, would signal the start of a fresh primary advance.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200
Weakening commodity prices are dragging the Australian Dollar lower against the greenback. Breach of support at $1.02 indicates another test of primary support at $0.96. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at $0.96 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $0.84*.
* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84
Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the Australian Dollar, having penetrated its long-term descending trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovering above zero. Breakout above parity would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
The Loonie retreated against the greenback, testing support at $0.995 after a false break above $1.01. Failure of support would confirm a bull trap and test primary support at $0.95. Recovery above $1.01 remains as likely, however, and would signal a primary advance; respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Aussie found support at R7.90 against the South African Rand. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains weak and reversal below zero would indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would warn of a correction to R7.50*. Recovery above R8.30, however, would signal a fresh primary advance.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
The US dollar is testing long-term support at ¥80. Failure would warn of weakness in the primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation. Recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance, with a target of ¥90*.
* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90
The euro broke support at $1.30, completing a bearish descending triangle on the weekly chart and signaling another test of primary support at $1.26. In the longer term, breach of $1.26 would offer a target of $1.17*. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17
Pound Sterling is in a strong primary up-trend against the euro, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum completing troughs high above zero. Target of €1.255* for the current advance is about to be broken.
* Target calculation: 1.215 + ( 1.215 – 1.175 ) = 1.255
Both Brent Crude and Nymex Light Crude are falling, with signs that the global economy is slowing and that tensions with Iran are easing. Brent is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a fall below $110/barrel would test primary support at $100. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend — and confirm a European recession. Recovery above $115 remains as likely, however, and would suggest a new primary advance.
Nymex WTI Light Crude has already penetrated its rising trendline and support at $103/barrel. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Failure of support at $96 would confirm a primary down-trend — and warn of US recession.
The CRB Commodities Index is testing primary support at 295 and respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another primary decline. Target for a breakout would be 265*. Divergence between commodities and the S&P 500 suggests that stocks are over-priced, with the Fed doing its best to depress bond yields and pump up stock prices ahead of the November election.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
Spot Gold broke its long-term rising trendline and support at $1600, warning of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Failure of primary support at $1500 would confirm, offering a target of $1200*. Recovery above $1600 would indicate all bets are off.
* Target calculation: 1500 – (1800 – 1500) = 1200
The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, has been suggesting a gold down-trend for some time.
The Dollar Index broke through resistance at 80 on the weekly chart and a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates another rally. Expect a test of 82 in the next few weeks, mirrored by a weakening gold price.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
