Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
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China Alters Its Strategy in Dispute With Japan – NYTimes.com

By JANE PERLEZ

Notions of punishing Tokyo economically for buying the islands, whose status was left unclear after World War II, are unrealistic, said Hu Shuli, editor in chief of Caixin Media and one of China’s chief economic journalists. So many Chinese workers are employed at Japanese-owned companies, she said, that any escalation of tensions leading to a boycott of Japanese goods could lead to huge job losses.

This would be disastrous in an already shaky Chinese economy, Ms. Hu wrote in the Chinese magazine Century Weekly……

via China Alters Its Strategy in Dispute With Japan – NYTimes.com.

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Bachelor Padding – By Roseann Lake | Foreign Policy

By Roseann Lake

As a result of the real estate boom, reports in Chinese media indicate that the average property in a top-tier Chinese city now costs between 15 and 20 times the average annual salary, though J.P. Morgan reports indicate something closer to 13. For purposes of comparison, in most of the world’s cities, the housing-cost-to-income ratio hovers between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1, rounding out at about 3-to-1 in the United States. This is especially problematic in China, where thanks to still-prevalent Confucian ideals of the male as the “provider,” home ownership has become an unspoken prerequisite to marriage. It’s a tough, competitive life for men in China these days, in part due to the aftershocks of the one-child policy, which has left the country with a gaping gender imbalance of 120 boys for every 100 girls……

via Bachelor Padding – By Roseann Lake | Foreign Policy.

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Obama's economic saviour savaged as Keating lets rip

By Peter Hartcher

In a speech to a closed gathering at the Lowy Institute in Sydney on Thursday, Paul Keating gave a starkly different account of Geithner’s record in handling the Asian crisis: “Tim Geithner was the Treasury line officer who wrote the IMF [International Monetary Fund] program for Indonesia in 1997-98, which was to apply current account solutions to a capital account crisis.” In other words, Geithner fundamentally misdiagnosed the problem. And his misdiagnosis led to a dreadfully wrong prescription.

For the record, Indonesia’s GNP fell 83% by July 1998.

via Obama's economic saviour savaged as Keating lets rip.

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There's No Solving Europe's Debt Crisis Without Solving the Jobs Crisis – Bloomberg

From the outside it looks like these [Eurozone] countries are faced with a debt crisis. From the inside it looks a lot more like a jobs crisis. Check out the chart below…….

via There’s No Solving Europe’s Debt Crisis Without Solving the Jobs Crisis – Bloomberg.

Hat tip to @10yearBonds

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Dollar bounce, gold and copper retrace

The Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold is retracing below resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, indicating rising inflation expectations in response to QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Copper is also retracing. Respect of 8000 would be a bullish sign. Again, a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 8600 would confirm, indicating that global economic activity is reviving. Failure of support at 8000 would suggest the opposite.

Copper

Brent Crude is falling after breaking support at $112 per barrel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. The fall, despite increased inflation expectations, reflects slowing economic activity rather than increased security. Syria and Iran remain concerns in the Middle East. Test of support at $100 would warn of another down-turn.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

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Philadelphia Fed: Worrying drop in state coincident indicators

Tom Porcelli, economist at RBC Capital, points out a worrying drop in the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators. The Monthly Index has turned up but the 3-Month Index continues downward. Reversal of the Monthly Index in the next few months would be cause for concern.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indicators Diffusion Indexes

When we look at the index over the last 30 years, down-turns of the Diffusion Index below 50 normally precede a recession. The only false signal (so far) was the recent 2011 dip of the Monthly Index (DI1) to 20 and the 3-Month Index (DI3) to 46.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indicators Diffusion Indexes - Long Term

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates monthly coincident indexes for each of the 50 states. The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

For further details of Diffusion Index performance in predicting recessions, read Marking NBER Recessions with State Data by Jason Novak (2008).

Hat tip to Pedro da Costa at Macroscope.

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If You Want to “Soak the Rich,” Keep Tax Rates Low « International Liberty

by Dan Mitchell

I’ve pulled evidence from IRS publications to show that rich people paid a lot more to Uncle Sam after Reagan reduced the top tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent…….. The United Kingdom saw similar dramatic results when Margaret Thatcher lowered the top tax rate from 83 percent to 40 percent. Allister Heath explains.

During the 1970s, when the tax system specialised in inflicting pain, the top one per cent of earners contributed 11pc of income tax. By 1986-87, with the top rate down to 60pc, that had increased to 14pc. After the top rate fell to 40pc in 1988, the top 1pc’s share jumped, reaching 21.3pc by 1999-2000, 24.4pc in 2007-08 and 26.5pc in 2009-10. Lower taxes fuelled a hard-work culture and an entrepreneurial revolution. Combined with globalisation and the much greater rewards available for skilled workers, Britain’s most successful individuals earned a lot and paid a lot in tax.

via Evidence from England Shows that If You Want to “Soak the Rich,” Keep Tax Rates Low « International Liberty.

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FX Horizons: Danish Businessman Quietly Seeks FX Revolution – WSJ.com

By Michael J. Casey

Under [Jesper Toft’s Global Currency Union] plan, the two parties in a cross-border transaction will still do business in their home currencies but their contract will be denominated in “global currency units” whose value is determined by a unique index key based upon a weighted basket of currencies. Because of the counterbalancing and risk-spreading qualities in the currency relationships within that basket, the index key sharply lowers the prospective exchange rate volatility for the two parties to the contract. In other words, it allows firms to forget about the risk of big currency losses and focus on doing business with each other………

via FX Horizons: Danish Businessman Quietly Seeks FX Revolution – WSJ.com.

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ROSS GITTINS: We need a more balanced approach to progress

Ross Gittins:

A lot of the problems the nation struggles with and argues over boil down to the considerable potential for conflict between what economists summarise as “equity” and “efficiency”. We act as though one is right and the other wrong but, in truth, sensible people want a mix of both. So, though we don’t always realise it, the hard part is finding the best trade-off between the two……..

via ROSS GITTINS: We need a more balanced approach to progress.

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EU: Trades Must Live for Second | Securities Technology Monitor

By Laton McCartney

Members of the European Parliament tightened up the EU’s proposal on high-frequency algorithmic trading, voting that all high-frequency trading orders should be valid for one half second. The rule means orders cannot be cancelled or modified for at least five hundred milliseconds………All firms and trading venues also would have to ensure that trading systems are resilient and prepared to deal with sudden increases in order flows or market stresses. These could include Europe’s own “circuit breakers” to suspend trading………

via EU: Trades Must Live for Second | Securities Technology Monitor.

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