Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

July 31, 2012

Australia: Housing credit slows

From the Westpac Bulletin:

Housing credit has lost momentum under the weight of past tight monetary policy and with the sector facing a number of headwinds.

Housing credit grew by just 0.30% in the month of June. This is the weakest monthly result on record (back to 1976), with the exception of a one-off fall of -0.38% for June 1984. Annual housing credit growth has now slowed to 5.1%, moderating from 6.0% a year ago.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

July 31, 2012

Europe: DAX and Footsie buying pressure

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of resistance at the 2012 high of 7200. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. We should see stubborn resistance at 7200 but also strong support at 6500 if there is a retracement.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at 5700 while 21-day Twiggs Money Flow bottoming above zero indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 5900*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5500 ) = 5900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 31, 2012

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 shows 63-day Twiggs Momentum has been falling for about two years but is now threatening to form a trough above zero which would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 1420 would confirm, offering a target of the 2007 high at 1550*. Respect of resistance, however, would mean more of the same gloomy outlook — our steady diet over the past few months.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 – 1250 ) = 1550

Respect of 2400 on the Nasdaq 100 monthly chart is also a bullish sign. Breakout above 2800 would offer a target of 3200*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 30, 2012

The Olympic Contradiction – NYTimes.com

DAVID BROOKS: Dancers, especially at the opening ceremony, smile in warmth and friendship……..After the opening ceremony is over, the Olympics turn into a celebration of the competitive virtues: tenacity, courage, excellence, supremacy, discipline and conflict.

The world, unfortunately, has too many monomaniacs….One [political] faction champions austerity while another champions growth…….The right course is usually to push hard in both directions……to thrive amid the contradictions.

via The Olympic Contradiction – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 30, 2012

Federal Spending Cutbacks Slow Recovery – WSJ.com

BEN CASSELMAN and CONOR DOUGHERTY: Recent economic data show that long before the fiscal cliff hits, federal spending already is falling — and taking a toll on the recovery…….State and local governments are projected to receive $20.8 billion in federal stimulus funds in the 2012 fiscal year, ending in September, down from a combined $180.7 billion in fiscal 2010 and 2011, according to the Government Accountability Office……At the same time, military spending has fallen for three straight quarters as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have wound down and as the Pentagon prepares for further budget cuts.

via Federal Spending Cutbacks Slow Recovery – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 30, 2012

Corporate Profit Streak Faces a Threat – WSJ.com

KATE LINEBAUGH: In the third quarter, earnings by companies in the S&P 500 are expected to shrink for the first time since just after the recession ended, according to Thomson Reuters, which surveys Wall Street analysts…..declining by about 0.4% from the year-earlier quarter…..That follows what will likely have been three straight quarters of decelerating profit growth.

via Corporate Profit Streak Faces a Threat – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 28, 2012

Towns Cut Costs by Sending Work Next Door – WSJ.com

Towns and cities in the US are using a novel way of cutting costs as tax revenues shrink: out-source administrative functions to neighboring towns or to local counties. Here is an excerpt from an article by Joel Millman in the Wall Street Journal:

Molalla, 30 miles south of Portland, is part of a trend spreading across Oregon among towns and cities facing fiscal crises and seeking to cut spending. The towns of Lowell and Westfir, populations 1,045 and 300, say they outsourced their traffic patrols and criminal complaints to nearby Oak Ridge, population 3,200.

Oak Ridge, in turn, closed its 911 dispatch service—which had been costing nearly $400,000 a year—by paying the Lane County Sheriff’s Department $93,000 to take its calls. Earlier this year, the city of Eugene contracted with Lane County to take over some legal work.

…Oregon’s public sector is catching up to a trend that has already taken off in some other states as cities and towns consolidate operations. Often called “service contracting,” or “service sharing,” this type of outsourcing lets cities keep the work local and maintain a connection with voters, instead of privatizing operations to a commercial venture that might be located far away.

If this idea catches on it could lead to widespread savings at town, city, county and even state level as neighbors reduce costs by sharing duplicated functions.

via Towns Cut Costs by Sending Work Next Door – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 28, 2012

Study: High-Speed Trading Hurts Long-Term Investors – WSJ.com

SCOTT PATTERSON: Investors trying to trade cost-effectively often find themselves standing in line behind the fleet-footed traders and are forced to wait to execute their trades, which in turn can cause poorer results, the report [by Pragma Securities LLC — a research and trading firm] says. The upshot: Investors are often paying more for many blue-chip stocks than they would have otherwise.

The results contradict a number of industry and academic studies that claim high-speed trading has cut costs for investors.

via Study: High-Speed Trading Hurts Long-Term Investors – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 28, 2012

David Stockman

David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, gives Alex Daley a run-down of the Fed’s performance.

Duration 30:43

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 27, 2012

Treasury yields: What a difference a day makes

10-Year Treasury yields gapped above resistance at 1.45 percent and the descending trendline, signaling an outflow from Treasuries and into stocks. Breakout above 1.70 percent would suggest a primary down-trend for bonds (price is the inverse of yield) and an up-trend for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.45 – ( 1.70 – 1.45 ) = 1.20

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.