Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

August 13, 2012

Gary Shilling: Global Slowdown, Only Time Can Heal the Economy

Gary Shilling: If we have a consumer-led recession it will be very different to previous post-WWII recessions which were always led by the Fed.

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Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

August 13, 2012

Which Country Has the Best Government? – SPIEGEL ONLINE

The Craft of Ruling: Which Country Has the Best Government?
By Bernhard Zand

American political scientist Charles Kupchans claims that there is a “mismatch between the growing demand for good governance and its shrinking supply,” putting Western powers under pressure. He says it’s no coincidence that the political systems in the US, Europe and Japan are all discovering their limits almost simultaneously. Their traditional tools, such as their currency control instruments, have repeatedly proven to be powerless when faced with the sheer might of global financial groups. Likewise, democratic governments, which rely on the approval of their electorate, “have proved far better at distributing benefits than at apportioning sacrifice.” Worse still, many likeminded Western democracies no longer see eye-to-eye on how to solve global problems, from climate change to the isolation of Iran.

via Good Governance Series: Which Goverment Is Best – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Putin's Russia Is Becoming a Flawless Dictatorship – SPIEGEL ONLINE

The Path to Tyranny: Putin’s Russia Is Becoming a Flawless Dictatorship
By Georg Diez, Walter Mayr and Matthias Schepp:

Medvedev’s essay “Forward, Russia,” published in September 2009, had triggered hopes of a freer Russia within the well-educated urban middle class. Putin’s successor had created an atmosphere in which the middle class had become active, recognizing that a different, modern Russia could be possible. This political thaw had since been recognized as a mistake, says Moscow political scientist Vitaly Ivanov. Putin’s team responded to Medvedev’s stated principle that freedom is always preferable to the lack of freedom with the conviction that order is always better than disorder.

via SPIEGEL Cover Story on Pussy Riot Trial and Putin – SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Bill Cosby: My father's car

Classic Cosby:

http://youtu.be/aRIk_rWKH3g

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Bill Cosby: "Jesus Christ"

One of Bill Cosby’s funniest routines:

http://youtu.be/fwYVqMj5i6k

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 retraces

The ASX 200 is retracing after a healthy rally. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates short-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Canada: TSX60 rising broadening wedge

The TSX 60 continues in a rising broadening wedge on the daily chart. Thomas Bulkowski warns these are bearish formations, ending with a downward breakout almost 3 out of 4 times. That would threaten primary support at 640 and a decline to 600*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of short-term selling pressure. Respect of support at 640, however, would suggest a rally to 720.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

Europe: Signs of a revival

Bullish divergence on Madrid General Index (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 720 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of 840*. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 600 ) = 840

FTSE 100 broke resistance at 5750 and is headed for a test of 6000 on the weekly chart. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates a healthy primary up-trend. Expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous peaks at this level. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 13, 2012

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Bearish divergence on the S&P 500 Index (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) warns of increasing resistance as the index approaches 1420. Expect retracement to 1360/1380 followed by another attempt at 1420. Breakout would signal another primary advance. Reversal below the trend channel is unlikely but would warn of a correction to test primary support at 1280.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800 on the weekly chart. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates a healthy primary up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Bellwether transport stock Fedex, however, is edging lower. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at $84 would confirm the primary down trend signaled by the March-April double-top. That would warn of an economic down-turn.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 11, 2012

Romney’s VP: Paul Ryan—A Bold Choice, a Big Risk

By JOSH BOAK, The Fiscal Times

August 11, 2012

Bowing to pressure from the conservative wing of his party, Republican Mitt Romney has picked House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate, and ensured that the congressman’s controversial plan to transform Medicare into a voucher-type program will become a central issue in the presidential race.

via Romney’s VP: Paul Ryan—A Bold Choice, a Big Risk.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.