Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

August 8, 2012

Asia: India recovering but China & Japan bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

August 7, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 4290, indicating an advance to 4360. Retracement that respects support at 4290/4300 would confirm breakout from the trend channel and an advance to 4450. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. In the longer term, breakout above 4450 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 4950.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4290 + ( 4290 – 4220 ) = 4360

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Poll: Do you trust High Frequency Trading to improve stock market pricing??

Please share this via Facebook or Twitter. The more responses we get the more pressure there is on regulators.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Bill Cosby: Theo gets an economics lesson

Classic Bill Cosby

[vodpod id=Video.16519157&w=425&h=350&fv=config%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.popmodal.com%2Fnuevo%2Fconfig.php%3Fkey%3D34354ac209f53d90c3a4]

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Europe and Footsie recovering

Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 720. Breakout would complete a double bottom, offering a target of 840*. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a resurgence, but we are some way off a recovery above zero which would signal a primary up-trend.

Madrid General Index

Dow Jones Europe Index displays a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a (primary trend) reversal. Recovery above zero would strengthen the signal. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest a test of resistance at 265.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test resistance at 6000. A trough at zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous reversals at this level.

FTSE 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Canada: TSX60 rising broadening wedge

The TSX 60 continues in a rising broadening wedge consolidation rather than a trend channel. Thomas Bulkowski observes that these formations end with a downward breakout 73 per cent of the time. That would threaten primary support at 640 and a decline to 600*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, indicates buying pressure. Respect of support at 640 would suggest a rally to 720. And breakout above 720 would offer a target of 800*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 buying pressure

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1420 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1570* — the 2007 high. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend. Breakout would offer a target of 3150*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Italian's Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com

Only the ECB has the necessary firepower to move the market. Senior German officials say the ECB’s help is what [Italian premier Mario] Monti has really been after all along. The Italian leader is convinced that the June 28 summit provided political cover for the ECB to take bold action, in the knowledge that euro-zone governments—including Germany—won’t oppose it.

“I have no doubt that the night before the disintegration of the euro, the ECB will do whatever is necessary to save it,” Mr. Monti says. “The question is: Do we need to get to the night before?”

via Italian’s Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

The Olympic spirit

Who said this about the Olympics?

The sportive, knightly battle awakens the best human characteristics. It doesn’t separate, but unites the combatants in understanding and respect. It also helps to connect the countries in the spirit of peace. That’s why the Olympic Flame should never die.

None other than that icon of world peace, Adolf Hitler. The next two scheduled games, 1940 and 1944, were cancelled while he extended the “spirit of peace” around the globe.

The Nazis hijacked the 1936 Olympic Games as a massive PR exercise. The torch relay doesn’t date back to ancient Greece at all. It originates from Nazi pageantry — introduced by them in 1936 in an attempt to draw a connection between ancient Greek civilization and the Third Reich. The 1936 medal count illustrates their success in whipping up nationalistic fervor.

1936 Olympics Medal Count

Source: Wikipedia

Other countries have since attempted to emulate the Nazi feat, pouring millions of dollars into sports development in the hope of improving their medal tally. The medal count, given such prominence by international media, goes against the spirit of the ancient Olympiads, whose focus was on athletes competing against other athletes. Countries competing against each other evokes the exact opposite of the spirit of peace.

In addition, we have commercial sponsors attempting to align themselves with the Olympic Games. Will Anderson, host of Gruen Sweat, a four-part ABC series, sums this up:

The London 2012 Olympics — where the world’s most competitive brands come together to fight for glory and gold — mostly gold …… The orgy of selling starts before the games even begin.

The spirit of the games was expressed by Pierre de Coubertin, founder of the modern Olympics:

The most important thing in the Olympic Games is not winning but taking part;
the essential thing in life is not conquering but fighting well.

To find the true spirit of the Olympics, look no further than the athletes. Not the medal count or the sponsors.

In every act observe the things which come first and those which follow….
If you do not, at first you will approach it with alacrity….
but afterward you will be ashamed.
A man wishes to conquer the Olympic games….
But observe the things which come first and the things which follow….
You must do everything according to the rule:
eat according to strict orders,
abstain from delicacies,
exercise yourself at appointed times, in heat and cold,
you must not drink cold water,
nor wine as you choose….
And sometimes you will strain the hand,
put the ankle out of joint,
swallow much dust,
sometimes be flogged,
and after all this be defeated.
When you have considered all this,
if you still choose, go to the contest.
If you do not — you will behave like children,
who at one time play as wrestlers, another time as flute players….
but with your whole soul you will be nothing at all.

~ Greek sage and Stoic philosopher Epictetus (AD 55 – AD 135)

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 6, 2012

Olympic highlights: Oscar Pistorius runs second in Mens 400m heat

South African athlete Oscar Pistorius, who had both of his legs amputated below the knee when he was a child, became the first double-amputee to compete in the Summer Olympics. Running in the first heat for the Men’s 400 meters, he finished second, advancing to the semifinals. Unfortunately he failed to make the final, but his effort is truly inspiring.

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Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.