FT Alphaville » Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking

Izabella Kaminska: The [European research] team at Morgan Stanley concludes:

Banks earnings have already come under significant pressure from the flattening of the yield curve. Unless negative real rates came with a material steepening of the curves (not our rates colleagues’ view), banks earnings would come under even greater pressure. In fact, the greatest risk our rates colleagues see would be for negative rates 2-3 years down the curve, in which case banks would need to re-price credit further. In our view, as banks’ confidence in loan growth and margins fell, so would their confidence on their capital plans and so lending would remain weak. We see Japan’s experience as good case study in this.

via FT Alphaville » Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking.

Olympic highlights: Mens 4x100m freestyle relay

Highlight of the Olympics so far is France’s performance in the Mens 4x100m freestyle relay:

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Australia: Housing credit slows

From the Westpac Bulletin:

Housing credit has lost momentum under the weight of past tight monetary policy and with the sector facing a number of headwinds.

Housing credit grew by just 0.30% in the month of June. This is the weakest monthly result on record (back to 1976), with the exception of a one-off fall of -0.38% for June 1984. Annual housing credit growth has now slowed to 5.1%, moderating from 6.0% a year ago.

Europe: DAX and Footsie buying pressure

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of resistance at the 2012 high of 7200. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. We should see stubborn resistance at 7200 but also strong support at 6500 if there is a retracement.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at 5700 while 21-day Twiggs Money Flow bottoming above zero indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 5900*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5500 ) = 5900

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 shows 63-day Twiggs Momentum has been falling for about two years but is now threatening to form a trough above zero which would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 1420 would confirm, offering a target of the 2007 high at 1550*. Respect of resistance, however, would mean more of the same gloomy outlook — our steady diet over the past few months.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 – 1250 ) = 1550

Respect of 2400 on the Nasdaq 100 monthly chart is also a bullish sign. Breakout above 2800 would offer a target of 3200*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200

The Olympic Contradiction – NYTimes.com

DAVID BROOKS: Dancers, especially at the opening ceremony, smile in warmth and friendship……..After the opening ceremony is over, the Olympics turn into a celebration of the competitive virtues: tenacity, courage, excellence, supremacy, discipline and conflict.

The world, unfortunately, has too many monomaniacs….One [political] faction champions austerity while another champions growth…….The right course is usually to push hard in both directions……to thrive amid the contradictions.

via The Olympic Contradiction – NYTimes.com.

Federal Spending Cutbacks Slow Recovery – WSJ.com

BEN CASSELMAN and CONOR DOUGHERTY: Recent economic data show that long before the fiscal cliff hits, federal spending already is falling — and taking a toll on the recovery…….State and local governments are projected to receive $20.8 billion in federal stimulus funds in the 2012 fiscal year, ending in September, down from a combined $180.7 billion in fiscal 2010 and 2011, according to the Government Accountability Office……At the same time, military spending has fallen for three straight quarters as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have wound down and as the Pentagon prepares for further budget cuts.

via Federal Spending Cutbacks Slow Recovery – WSJ.com.

Corporate Profit Streak Faces a Threat – WSJ.com

KATE LINEBAUGH: In the third quarter, earnings by companies in the S&P 500 are expected to shrink for the first time since just after the recession ended, according to Thomson Reuters, which surveys Wall Street analysts…..declining by about 0.4% from the year-earlier quarter…..That follows what will likely have been three straight quarters of decelerating profit growth.

via Corporate Profit Streak Faces a Threat – WSJ.com.

Towns Cut Costs by Sending Work Next Door – WSJ.com

Towns and cities in the US are using a novel way of cutting costs as tax revenues shrink: out-source administrative functions to neighboring towns or to local counties. Here is an excerpt from an article by Joel Millman in the Wall Street Journal:

Molalla, 30 miles south of Portland, is part of a trend spreading across Oregon among towns and cities facing fiscal crises and seeking to cut spending. The towns of Lowell and Westfir, populations 1,045 and 300, say they outsourced their traffic patrols and criminal complaints to nearby Oak Ridge, population 3,200.

Oak Ridge, in turn, closed its 911 dispatch service—which had been costing nearly $400,000 a year—by paying the Lane County Sheriff’s Department $93,000 to take its calls. Earlier this year, the city of Eugene contracted with Lane County to take over some legal work.

…Oregon’s public sector is catching up to a trend that has already taken off in some other states as cities and towns consolidate operations. Often called “service contracting,” or “service sharing,” this type of outsourcing lets cities keep the work local and maintain a connection with voters, instead of privatizing operations to a commercial venture that might be located far away.

If this idea catches on it could lead to widespread savings at town, city, county and even state level as neighbors reduce costs by sharing duplicated functions.

via Towns Cut Costs by Sending Work Next Door – WSJ.com.