Author: Colin Twiggs

Posted on

U.S. Won't Pursue Goldman Charges – WSJ.com

By REED ALBERGOTTI

After a year-long investigation, the Justice Department said Thursday that it will not bring charges against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. or any of its employees for financial fraud related to the mortgage crisis.

In a statement released Thursday, the Justice Department said “the burden of proof” couldn’t be met to prosecute Goldman criminally based on claims made in an extensive report prepared by a U.S. Senate panel that investigated the financial crisis.

via U.S. Won’t Pursue Goldman Charges – WSJ.com.

Question is: Should GS be allowed to get away with it?  Can they be broken up? Are their other measures that could serve as a deterrent in the future?

Posted on

Dollar tests support, gold and commodities strengthen

The US Dollar Index made a false break above resistance at 83.50 before retracing to test support at 81.50. Respect of support and the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 83.50/84.00 would signal an advance to 86.00* in the next few weeks and to the 2010 high at 88.50 in a few months. Another 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would reinforce the healthy up-trend. Failure of support at 81.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a trend reversal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold continues to consolidate on the weekly chart between $1530 and $1650 per ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above zero, however, would confirm that a bottom is forming. Breakout below primary support at $1530 would offer a target of $1300*; recovery above $1640 would indicate an advance to $1800.

Spot Gold Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The daily chart displays a symmetrical triangle formation. Breakout would indicate direction of the next primary move. The failed down-swing — with a reversal short of the lower border — suggests an upward breakout. Follow-through above 1640 would confirm.

Spot Gold

 

The CRB Commodities Index broke its descending trendline, indicating that a bottom is forming. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 305, strengthening the signal, would test 325. Reversal below 295, however, would suggest another test of 265. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would also suggest a primary up-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Brent Crude has already penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming. Follow-through above $108 strengthens the signal. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would indicate a primary up-trend, while a peak below zero would signal a decline to $75 per barrel*.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Posted on

Treasury yields rising — good for stocks

10-Year Treasury yields are headed for a test of resistance at 1.70 percent after recovery above the descending trendline warned of a “bear trap” — actually a bull trap because yields are the inverse of price. Follow-through above 1.60 percent has confirmed, and breakout above 1.70 would signal an advance to 2.0 percent* — a bullish sign for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.70 + ( 1.70 – 1.40 ) = 2.00

Posted on

Asia: India recovering but China & Japan bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*.  Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Posted on

Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 4290, indicating an advance to 4360. Retracement that respects support at 4290/4300 would confirm breakout from the trend channel and an advance to 4450. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. In the longer term, breakout above 4450 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 4950.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4290 + ( 4290 – 4220 ) = 4360

Posted on

Europe and Footsie recovering

Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 720. Breakout would complete a double bottom, offering a target of 840*.  Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a resurgence, but we are some way off a recovery above zero which would signal a primary up-trend.

Madrid General Index

Dow Jones Europe Index displays a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a (primary trend) reversal. Recovery above zero would strengthen the signal. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest a test of resistance at 265.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test  resistance at 6000. A trough at zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous reversals at this level.

FTSE 100 Index

Posted on

Canada: TSX60 rising broadening wedge

The TSX 60 continues in a rising broadening wedge consolidation rather than a trend channel. Thomas Bulkowski observes that these formations end with a downward breakout 73 per cent of the time. That would threaten primary support at 640 and a decline to 600*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, indicates buying pressure. Respect of support at 640 would suggest a rally to 720. And breakout above 720 would offer a target of 800*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600

Posted on

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 buying pressure

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1420 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1570* — the 2007 high. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend. Breakout would offer a target of 3150*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance By WPSmart