Gavyn Davies writes on BOE governor Mervyn King’s UK economic policy speech on Tuesday in FT Blogs:
The governor gives an extremely broad hint that he would like sterling to be much lower against other currencies. In his view, the drop of 25 per cent in sterling, which happened between late 2007 and the beginning of 2009, was “certainly necessary” for a full rebalancing of the UK economy.
If we take a look at the long-term view, sterling is ranging in a narrow band against the greenback after a sharp fall in 2008. 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to the zero line (within 5%) is typical of a ranging market.
Completion of a double top on the weekly chart signals a down-swing to primary support at $1.53*. 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.58 – ( 1.63 – 1.58 ) = 1.53
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
