Mancur Olson | The Economist

Mancur Olson’s 1998 obituary from The Economist sums up his beliefs as to why Germany and Japan made such startling recoveries after WWII while Britain, one of the victors, floundered.

The conclusion was striking. Narrow, self-serving groups had an inherent, though not insuperable, advantage over broad ones that worry about the well-being of society as a whole. How might that insight explain the fate of nations? In 1982, in “The Rise and Decline of Nations”, [Mancur Olson] offered an answer.

In any human society, he said, parochial cartels and lobbies tend to accumulate over time, until they begin to sap a country’s economic vitality. A war or some other catastrophe sweeps away the choking undergrowth of pressure groups. This had happened in Germany and Japan, but not in Britain, which, although physically damaged in the war, had retained many of its old institutions. Surely there was some less cataclysmic route to renewal? Yes, said Mr Olson, a nation’s people could beat back the armies of parochialism, but only if the danger were recognised and reforms embraced.

Read more at Mancur Olson | The Economist.

Lakshman Achuthan's US recession call

Sam Ro of Business Insider quotes ECRI:

So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators – the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales – saw their high points in July….. with only employment still rising.

See chart at Lakshman Achuthan's Tell-Tale Chart | Business Insider.

Economy Adds 146,000 Jobs | WSJ.com

Neil Shah at WSJ writes:

America’s employers added jobs at a slow pace in November, easing fears that uncertainty about U.S. budget policies would stifle hiring, but fueling concerns about the robustness of the economic recovery.

The Labor Department’s latest snapshot of the job market said employers added 146,000 jobs last month. That is an improvement from the previous two months, but below the average job growth per month of about 150,000 over the past two years.

via Economy Adds 146,000 Jobs | WSJ.com.

Reid: Eurozone's 2013 Nightmare Scenario | Business Insider

In his 2013 outlook, titled In Authorities We (have to) Trust, Deutsche Bank credit strategist Jim Reid warns that Europe is headed for tough times in 2013.

Matthew Boesler at BusinessInsider writes:

Reid highlights three major issues.

To start, European stocks – and stocks in markets around the world, for that matter – are considerably overvalued based on historical correlations to PMI data….

The second problem is austerity. Most accept that austerity measures weigh on economic growth in the short term, yet euro-area governments are moving forward with plans attempting to bring fiscal budgets back into balance anyway.

…. the third problem: namely, that governments have consistently set economic forecasts too high and then failed to meet their own targets.

Read more here Reid: Eurozone’s 2013 Nightmare Scenario | Business Insider.

Jack Kemp Showed GOP How to Appeal to Minorities

Bruce Bartlett writes that late senator Jack Kemp is a role model for how Republicans should engage with minorities:

Although Kemp pushed for a cut in tax rates for the wealthy, he was adamant that all workers must share in the benefits of lower taxes. He also focused heavily on the idea that saving, investment, technological advancement and capital formation were the essential goals of economic and tax policy, because they raised productivity, which would raise the wages of workers. Today, Republicans just blithely assume that tax cuts for the wealthy will automatically help the economy without ever explaining how or why.

The key to a thriving capitalist system is a successful partnership between capitalists and labor. Capitalists benefited hugely over the last half-century from jobs the private sector created — and from rising wage levels — through growing consumption. Without consumption they would fail. Workers on the other side of the bargain have also benefited from job creation and rising wage levels. Without them they would suffer unemployment and genuine hardship. Neither side can afford to focus on their own needs without recognizing the importance of the other’s.

Mancur Olson argued that specialized unions with narrow membership will attempt to optimize benefits to their members, be it airline pilots or sanitation workers, even if this achieves a sub-optimal outcome for the economy as a whole. In other words, they will advance their own interests at the expense of others. But he also argued that broad-based unions will not, recognizing that they cannot advance their own members’ interests if the economy as a whole suffers.

I believe the same applies to capitalists. Monopolies or cartels who attempt to maximize their own profits will damage the economy, while broader-based groups will recognize that they can only maximize profits by advancing the economy as a whole — creating new jobs and lifting wage levels.

You also cannot focus solely on lifting wage levels — as Herbert Hoover attempted in the early 1930s — in the hope that this will support the broader economy. Higher wages will slow job creation and retard the recovery. The focus has to be on maximizing the total wage bill — and consumption. At times, during a recession, this requires lower wages and more jobs. But as the economy approaches full employment, wages will rise while job creation slows.

Exporting jobs offshore may serve the narrow interests of some manufacturers but is ultimately not in their long-term interest. They may gain from cheaper labor costs but they are also exporting consumption, which will directly or indirectly hurt sales.

That Kemp was an extraordinary man is also borne out by his views on immigrants, emphasizing integration rather than exclusion:

I also know that Kemp had a far different attitude toward immigrants than virtually all Republicans today. He welcomed them, seeing immigration as one of the economy’s lifebloods. He would be extremely critical of efforts to demagogue Latino immigrants who come here, legally or illegally, just looking to earn an honest living and enjoy the American way of life.

Read more here: Jack Kemp Showed GOP How to Appeal to Minorities | The Fiscal Times.

DAX breakout above 7500

Germany’s DAX broke resistance at 7500 from its May 2011 high, signaling an advance to the 2007 high at 8000*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reinforce the signal, indicating medium-term buying pressure.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

China regulator frets over confidence crisis after investment product fails | Reuters

Hongmei Zhao and Lucy Hornby report:

Investors rushed to [Hua Xia Bank Co Ltd]’s Jiading branch in a suburb of Shanghai after one of four wealth management products issued by the Zhongding Wealth Investment Center failed to pay out as scheduled on November 26.

via China regulator frets over confidence crisis after investment product fails | Reuters.

Clinton’s Spending Cuts—Not His Tax Hikes—Worked

EDWARD MORRISSEY writes about Clinton-era nostalgia:

In his eight years as President, Clinton reduced federal spending to 18.2 percent of GDP from 22.1 percent, thanks in large part to a Republican-controlled Congress that forced the issue……. Barack Obama managed to hike it 3.5 points in just one term, with 3.2 points going to non-defense spending. Under Obama, federal spending now exceeds 25 percent of GDP, and his has been the biggest increase of any of his predecessors over the last 60 years – even for two-term Presidents.The real debate over deficits isn’t over whether to go back to Clinton-era tax rates. It’s how to get back to Clinton-era spending levels, and then create a tax system that will adequately fund it. The 18.2 percent level of federal spending is one piece of Clinton-era nostalgia worth recalling – as well as the bipartisanship that eventually produced it.

Nostalgists should also remember that the housing bubble started in this era — as did the internet boom — followed by the dot-com bust just as Clinton left office. This article is definitely worth reading.

via Clinton’s Spending Cuts—Not His Tax Hikes—Worked.

Goldman predicts falling commodity prices

Matthew Boesler writes that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn’t mean investors can’t still make money.

Currie’s explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to invest in new technologies that help them to harvest more commodities, because they can sell them in the current market for high prices. However, those new technologies have the effect of relieving long-term supply constraints, because the world will be able to use them to access previously unaccessable energy resources, shale oil being just one example.

If Currie is right, returns will be “generated more by the backwardation in the term structure and less by price appreciation”. That means that investors can profit from rolling current contracts into consecutively cheaper future contracts. But it also means a bear market in resources stocks as commodity prices fall.

via GOLDMAN: The 'Old Economy Renaissance' Is About To Offer Opportunities For Commodity Investors Not Seen Since The 1990s – Business Insider.

Sterling threatens euro down-trend

Pound Sterling broke its long-term rising trendline against the euro and is testing support at €1.225 on the weekly chart. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm. Respect of support is most unlikely, but would test €1.260 in the medium-term.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18