Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 10800 after a shallow, saucer-shaped correction. Declining Twiggs Money Flow has leveled off above zero. Breakout would signal a primary advance with a target of 11500*.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
Narrow consolidation on the FTSE 100, below long-term resistance at 7100, is a bullish sign. The decline in Twiggs Money indicates medium-term selling pressure, not long-term. Breakout above 7100 would offer a long-term target of 8000. Retreat below 6900, however, would warn of a correction to 6500.
US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking through 1.80 percent to signal a test of 2.0 percent. Further rises are likely on the back of stronger GDP figures for the last quarter.
The Chinese Yuan continues to depreciate against the Dollar in anticipation of another rate rise from the Fed.
Spot gold displays a weak retracement off support at $1250/ounce, with short candles indicating a lack of conviction. Another primary decline is likely and would test primary support at $1200.
The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index respected the descending trendline, suggesting another decline. Reversal below 4300 would confirm, offering a target of 4000.
Earlier this week I wrote:
“The ASX 300 Banks Index broke through resistance at 8000. Twiggs Money Flow is still negative but recovery above zero now looks likely. Breakout would signal an advance to 8700 but I remain cautious and would wait for a retracement to respect the new support level.”
The picture changed within 24 hours. Breakout transformed into a false break, reversing below the 8000 support level. Twiggs Money Flow turned down and now recovery above zero looks unlikely.
Trading breakouts is like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. Especially when fundamentals offer scant support. I have never done an accurate count, but for every successful breakout there must me at least five, if not ten, false breaks and/or bull or bear traps. Not good odds if you want to preserve your capital. Far better to wait for confirmation, even if that means a higher entry price.
From Bob Doll’s weekly commentary for Nuveen Investments:
Bob is right that earnings excluding the Energy sector are improving. The graph below compares As Reported earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 to those excluding the Energy sector.
But while EPS may be increasing, profit margins are shrinking. Which makes me wonder how long EPS will continue to rise.
The FTSE 100 is testing long-term resistance at 7000/7100. Declining Twiggs Money warns of selling pressure. Retreat below 6950 would warn of a correction to test 6500.
The quarterly chart below shows the FTSE 100 first tested 7000 resistance in December 1999, reaching a high of 6950, and has struggled to break clear of this level ever since.
With the pound approaching record lows from 1985, and exports expected to rise, the Footsie finally has a decent chance of breaking clear.
Germany’s DAX is consolidating between 10200 and 10800. Declining Twiggs Money Flow has leveled off above zero. Recovery above 10800 would signal a primary advance with a target of 11500*.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is consolidating between 23000 and 24000. Decline of Twiggs Money Flow has slowed and a trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 would signal a fresh advance. Breach of support at 23000 is less likely but would warn of a correction to test the long-term rising trendline.
The Shanghai Composite Index made a flat saucer-shaped correction before again testing resistance at 3100. Breakout is now likely and would signal a fresh advance.
India’s Sensex is consolidating above support at 27600 after breaking below its trend channel. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of 27600 is likely and would signal a correction to 26000.
Nymex December Light Crude is consolidating above the new support level at $50/barrel. Respect is likely and would confirm the primary up-trend. Target for an advance is $56/barrel*.
* Target: 50 + ( 50 – 44 ) = 56
