The Swiss National Bank Is Taking A Very Big Risk

The bottom line is that in August Swiss reserves rose by CHF 115b. A monthly increasing of 50% (Staggering). Domestic liquidity (sight deposits) rose an (unbelievable) 390% (CHF 49b to CHF 191B). This information covers the period when SNB bet the farm in an effort to stabilize/weaken the CHF.

……So far, the actions by the SNB have been successful. The key EURCHF rate has been steadily above the 1.20 level. The folks in Zurich/Basel are touting the SNB action as a big success. It might be a bit early to celebrate

via The Swiss National Bank Is Taking A Very Big Risk.

ASX

The ASX 200 recovered slightly after a weak opening on Tuesday. Expect another test of 4000 but the index looks destined to continue in the lower half of its trend channel, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (holding below zero) warning of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the decline is 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

HK and China weaken

The Hang Seng index is falling steeply, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warning of selling pressure. Target for the current-down-swing is 16000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 19 – ( 22 – 19 ) = 16

The Shanghai Exchange is closed for Chung Yeung Festival, but the Shanghai Composite Index was testing support at 2350 on Friday. Failure of support would offer a long-term target of 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3000 – 2400 ) = 1800

NZX50

The NZX 50 index is testing resistance at 3350 after bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. The index fell sharply at Tuesday’s open but had recovered all of its lost ground by the close. Breach of the declining trendline indicates that the primary trend is weakening. Breakout above 3350 would indicate another test of the May 2011 high at 3580. Reversal below 3250 is unlikely, but would re-test primary support at 3100.

NZX 50 Index

Japan, South Korea selling pressure

Dow Jones Japan Index broke support at 4900, warning of another primary decline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms a strong primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

* Target calculation: 51 – ( 58 – 51 ) = 64

Dow Jones South Korea Index gapped sharply lower at the open, prompting a brief trading halt on the Korean exchange. 21-day Twiggs Money Flow holding below zero warns of strong (medium-term) selling pressure. Failure of support at 360 would test 330 in the short-term, but the calculated target is 290*.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 360 – ( 430 – 360 ) = 290

TSX 60 breaks support

Canada’s TSX 60 index broke support at 650, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals rising selling pressure. Expect another down-swing with a target of 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

Brazil leads the way, JSE likely to follow

The Brazilian BOVESPA index is headed for another test of 48000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of support would signal a down-swing to 38000*.

BOVESPA Index

* Target calculation: 48 – ( 58 – 48 ) = 38

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index fared better than most but is likely to be dragged lower by the global bear market. Expect a test of support at 28400; failure would signal a decline to 26000*.

Johannesburg Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28.5 – ( 31 – 28.5 ) = 26

India Singapore weak

The SENSEX is headed for another test of support at 16000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow holding below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support is likely and would indicate a down-swing to 14500*.

SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 16000 – ( 17500 – 16000 ) = 14500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index has already broken support at 2650, warning of a down-swing to 2300*. 63-Day Momentum declining while below zero also confirms a strong primary down-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2600 – ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 2300