Canada’s TSX 60 continues to test resistance at 740. Follow-through above 745 would indicate a long-term advance to 800*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would signal strong buying pressure. Reversal below 725 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800
TSX 60 VIX below 15 remains in bull territory.
The September quarter-end often heralds a correction as fund managers re-balance their portfolios and shed under-performing stocks. Congressional gridlock raised the probability even higher, but the market has brushed this aside, reflecting bullish long-term sentiment.
The S&P 500 rallied sharply off support at 1650. Follow-through above 1710 would indicate an advance to 1790/1800*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough close to zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1675 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1630.
* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790
VIX retreated below 20, signaling low/moderate market risk.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 300 points, ending its test of primary support at 14750. One swallow doesn’t make a summer, but this is a good start. S&P 500 breakout above 1710 would signal a fresh primary advance.
Dow Jones UK index reversed above the former primary support level at 282, warning of a bear trap.
All this mishigas is happening in part because the United States is in fact very secure, which leads many people to think it doesn\’t need a strong central state. They are therefore willing to countenance steps that they would not consider if the country were really facing a serious external danger.
~ Stephen M. Walt
Read more at The Surest Cure for America's Political Insanity | Stephen M. Walt.
Cartoonist Scott Adams shares his favorite Dilbert cartoons.
My favorite:
See all ten at EXCLUSIVE: Dilbert Creator Scott Adams Shares His 10 Favourite Strips | Business Insider Australia.
The Euro continues to test its new support level at $1.34/$1.3450. Respect is likely and would signal a test of the February high at $1.37. Breakout above $1.37 would offer a long-term target of $1.47*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend. Failure of support — and penetration of the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47
Sterling faltered after breaking resistance at €1.19. Reversal below €1.18 would warn of another test of primary support at €1.14. Follow-through above €1.20 is less likely, but would signal an advance to €1.24*.
* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24
The greenback is testing primary support at ¥96 against the Yen. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below ¥94 would confirm. Recovery above ¥101 is less likely, but would indicate another advance.
* Target calculation: 96 – ( 100 – 96 ) = 92
Canada’s Loonie respected its descending trendline and is testing support at $0.96. Failure (of support) would signal another test of the primary level at $0.9450. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to favor a primary up-trend. Breakout above $0.9750 is presently unlikely, but would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of parity*.
* Target calculation: 97.5 + ( 97.5 – 94.5 ) = 100.5
The Aussie Dollar is retracing to test its new support level at $0.94 against the greenback. Respect would indicate a test of resistance at $0.95, but failure is as likely and would warn of another test of medium-term support at $0.93. Breach of $0.93 would be more serious, warning of a correction to primary support at $0.89.
* Target calculations: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97
The Aussie continues to test primary support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbour. Recovery above $1.14 — and the descending trendline — would indicate a test of primary resistance at $1.16. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Breach of primary support remains as likely, however, and would offer a target of $1.08*.
* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08
Commodity prices continue to display weakness, with a tall shadow on the latest Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index weekly candle. But the Shanghai Composite Index is strengthening and bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a reversal. Recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend.
Rising commodity prices would be good news for resources stocks.
* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135
Spot gold respected the declining trendline. Breach of short-term support at $1280 per ounce would indicate another test of primary support at $1200. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum (not shown) peak below zero would be a strong bear signal. Respect of support, followed by recovery above the recent high of $1330 is unlikely but would complete a small double-bottom, indicating the correction is over.
Nymex light crude followed through below $102/barrel after breaking support at $103, confirming a test of medium-term support at $98/barrel. The wider spread with Brent Crude reflects continuing tensions over Syria which threaten supply.
The Dollar Index is consolidating below its new resistance level of 80.50. Follow-through below 80 would confirm the primary down-trend. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also signals a down-trend. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.
A falling dollar would boost gold prices.
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is consolidating between 2.60 and 2.70 percent. Recovery above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support, however, would warn of a test of 2.40 percent.
Rising treasury yields would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting downward pressure on prices.
* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40
Sweden is one of the leaders in a recent OECD survey of literacy and numeracy levels. Anders Aslund describes how the education system recovered from the ravages of the 1960s and 70s:
The Swedish school system, Palme’s [hardline socialist Olof Palme] original bailiwick, was badly ravaged by left-wing reforms of the 1960s and 1970s. Today, all pupils are entitled to school vouchers of equal value for each child of a certain age. Their parents can allocate this school voucher to any school the child is qualified to enter. As a result, while in the 1970s Sweden had only four private schools, one-fifth of Swedish secondary schools are now private, some for profit, others cooperatives or non-profit foundations…….
Read more at TheMoneyIllusion » A Lesson for Ed Balls (And Noah Smith).
Barry Ritholz highlights the alarming debt to income ratio for Canada compared to the USA:
How does Australia compare?
Australian household debt to income is similar to Canada’s. There has been discussion recently about whether Australia is in a housing bubble. As Anna Schwartz (joint author of A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 with Milton Friedman) pointed out: there is only one kind of bubble and that is a debt bubble. It may manifest through rising real estate, stock or other asset prices, but the underlying driver is the same: a rapid expansion of the money supply through easy credit.
