Canada’s TSX 60 broke through resistance at 740, signaling a long-term advance to 800*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800
TSX 60 VIX below 15 suggests low market risk.
The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1730, signaling an advance to 1790/1800*. Follow-through above 1750 would confirm. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow troughs close to zero indicate buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.
* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790
VIX below 15 signals low market risk.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of 15700, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal. Breach of 14800 would confirm. Overall sentiment remains positive, however, and TMF recovery above the descending trendline (20%) would be a bullish sign. Breakout above 15700 would offer a target of 16600*.
* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600
The Nasdaq 100 is contrastingly bullish, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero signaling strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 3050 + ( 3050 – 2800 ) = 3300
Stephanie Banchero at WSJ describes how state introduction of charter schools in New Orleans has lifted academic performance.
There is broad acknowledgment that local schools are performing better since Hurricane Katrina washed away New Orleans’ failing public education system and state authorities took control of many campuses here.
Graduation rates went to 78% last year from 52% before Katrina—surpassing Detroit, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Oakland, Calif., cities also struggling to boost achievement among lower-income students. The share of New Orleans students proficient in math, reading, science and social studies increased to 58% in 2012 from 35% before the 2005 storm, state data shows.
….About 84% of its 42,000 public school students attend charters, the largest share of any district in the U.S.
Charter schools are largely free to manage their own budgets and hiring, set curriculum and schedules, and select textbooks. The lowest performing schools are eventually closed by state officials or replaced with new operators.
For the school year that started in August, parents picked among 78 charter schools, as well as eight traditional campuses, one independent school with a board appointed by the governor and 38 private schools that are paid with state-issued tuition vouchers. To help guide the selection, public schools are issued grades of A to F, based on academic performance.
State-issued vouchers promote competition amongst schools and lift performance. The system not only empowers parents but also empowers staff in those institutions, judging them on performance rather than on conformity to strict regulatory controls.
An experiment in the Lombardy region of Italy has also demonstrated that similar competition between state and private institutions in the health care sector reduces costs and improves outcomes. Given the striking success of this model, expect to see growing adoption in both health care and education despite resistance from vested interests.
Read more at Inside the Nation's Biggest Experiment in School Choice – WSJ.com.
John Weatherall Public Lecture | Martin Wolf
http://youtu.be/1w-pODAjVyE
[1hr28mins]
Hat tip to Macrobusiness.com.au
The Euro is consolidating in a narrow band below $1.36. Upward breakout above $1.37 would signal a fresh advance, with a long-term target of $1.47*. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy up-trend. Failure of support at $1.34 — and penetration of the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47
Sterling broke short-term support at €1.18, warning of another correction to primary support at €1.14. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero continues to favor a primary up-trend. Breakout above resistance at €1.20 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to €1.24*.
* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24
The greenback respected support against the Japanese Yen at ¥96. Breakout above ¥101 would signal another advance. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of a weak up-trend and breach of support at ¥96 would indicate a reversal.
* Target calculation: 96 – ( 100 – 96 ) = 92
Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.96, suggesting another attempt at resistance of $0.9750. Breakout would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of parity*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum also favors a primary up-trend. Reversal below $0.96 is unlikely, but would signal another test of the primary level at $0.9450.
* Target calculation: 97.5 + ( 97.5 – 94.5 ) = 100.5
The Aussie Dollar broke through resistance at $0.95, signaling an advance to $0.97*. Retracement to test the new support level at $0.95 is likely. Respect would confirm the primary advance; failure of support — though unlikely — would warn of another test of $0.93.
* Target calculation: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97
Against its Kiwi neighbour, the Aussie Dollar respected resistance at $1.14, suggesting another test of primary support at $1.12. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to favor a primary up-trend. Recovery above $1.14 — and the descending trendline — would signal a test of primary resistance at $1.16. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Until then, breach of primary support remains a threat and would warn of a decline to $1.08*.
* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08
The Dollar Index found support at 80. Recovery above 81 would suggest a bear trap. A peak close to zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, indicates a primary down-trend. Reversal below 80 would confirm the long-term target of 76.50*.
A falling dollar would boost gold prices.
* Target calculation: 80.5 – ( 84.5 – 80.5 ) = 76.5
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes threatens recovery above 2.70 percent, which would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support at 2.60 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 2.40 percent.
Rising treasury yields would lift the dollar, while raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and exerting downward pressure on gold.
* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40
Spot gold continues its correction toward primary support at $1200. Follow-through below $1250 would confirm, while recovery above $1300 would suggest a higher trough and primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaking below zero, however, would indicate continuation of the down-trend.
Nymex light crude is edging lower and likely to test medium-term support at $98/barrel. Brent crude is diverging, reflecting continuing tensions over Syria.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Downward breakout would warn of another correction — a bearish sign for commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index shows evidence of a higher trough, however, and recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal.
* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135
The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1700/1710, indicating a primary advance to 1790/1800*. Troughs close to zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Reversal below 1675 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1630.
* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790
Todd Woody writes:
While electricity prices are expected to continue to rise in the years ahead, the installed cost of a photovoltaic system continues to drop.
The plummeting price for photovoltaic electricity means that installations are spreading beyond states like California that feature both high electricity prices and generous subsidies for solar.
I suspect that generous subsidies are the primary motivation. Even at $3500 per KW and 300 sunny days a year, the payback period is more than 10 years when compared to the average commercial cost of 14 cents/KWH. The cost of PV systems would have to halve again to make them commercially viable without subsidies.
Read more at The US corporate boom in solar power explained in five charts – Quartz.
India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level after breaking resistance at 20500 Friday, signaling a primary advance to 22000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 19500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing the rising trendline on its weekly chart. Penetration would warn that momentum is slowing, while breach of 13000 would signal a primary down-trend. Breakout above 15000 is as likely, despite the earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and would signal an advance to 17500*.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500
China’s Shanghai Composite is rallying to test resistance — and the upper trend channel — at 2330. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates growing buying pressure. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 25500*; follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 23000 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of support at 21500.
* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500
Singapore’s Straits Times Index appears to be preparing for another test of long-term resistance at 3300. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 3600*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend, but sentiment is bullish across a wide range of markets and upward breakout is as likely.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600
The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at the May high of 5250, the false break suggesting a bear trap. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 — representing 50 leading stocks in the Eurozone — is advancing strongly, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggesting a healthy up-trend. Breakout above 2800 offers a target of 3200*. Reversal below 2850 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 2850 + ( 2850 – 2500 ) = 3200
The FTSE 100 threatened a primary down-trend after breaching primary support at 6400, but this proved a false break and recovery above 6400 now suggests a rally to 6650/6700. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 6700 would indicate an advance to 7000*, but reversal below support at 6400, while less likely, would warn of a correction to 6000.
* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000
