Nymex Light Crude broke support at $47/barrel, signaling a down-trend. Follow-through below $45 would confirm.
Lars Christensen shows that projected oil demand is closely linked to monetary conditions, with a down-turn in oil prices whenever the Fed announces further rate hikes. At present both the PBOC and the Fed are adopting a restrictive stance which should be bearish for crude oil.
Iron Ore broke support at $60, warning of a decline to test the 2015 low at $40.
China’s crackdown on wealth management products may be fueling the sell-off.
From David Chin at Basis Point:
….China’s commodity futures markets are the ‘canary in the coalmine’ for hints that the markets may be in for an even wilder ride.
Most WMPs [wealth management products] have a maturity between 1-4 months and managers of these WMPs need their Chinese retail investors to roll over by buying new WMPs. If this stops or slows, (which is happening now – see Bloomberg) it will result in assets being force-sold by fund managers to pay back expiring WMPs. The liquid assets that have boomed in recent months such as iron ore futures, will be, and have been, the first to be sold. Next to be sold will be shares, international assets and local property and local corporate bonds if there is still a functioning market for them.
Lars Christensen is one of the founding members of the Market Monetarism school of economic thought, having coined the term himself. Market Monetarists advocate that central banks target nominal GDP, instead of inflation, in order to achieve more responsive monetary policy and more stable economic growth.
The FTSE 100 rallied off support at 7100. Breakout above 7400 would signal a fresh advance. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; the long-term signal, however, remains bullish.
Germany’s DAX broke through resistance from its 2015 high, signaling a fresh advance with a long-term target of 15000.
France’s CAC-40 index displays a similar bullish breakout, above resistance at 5000/5200 to offer a target of 6000.
Shanghai’s Composite Index is again testing support at 3100. Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 3100 would signal a primary down-trend.
* Target medium-term: May 2016 low of 2800
Commodities are falling, with the DJ-UBS Commodity Index testing support at 82.
Despite the Dollar Index breaking support at 100.
Spot Gold followed, breaking medium-term support at $1240/$1250. A test of primary support at $1200/ounce is now likely.
Breach of $1200 would signal a primary down-trend. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. I still view gold stocks as a form of “Trump insurance” and am reluctant to part with exposure to this sector.
The Nasdaq 100 continues its impressive climb, shown here on a monthly chart. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure and a test of 6000 is likely.
Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to test resistance at 21000 after a shallow correction. Elevated troughs on Twiggs Money Flow again signal buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal a fresh advance, with an immediate target of 22000.
The recent Iron ore rally has faded and the commodity is again testing support at $60. Twiggs Momentum (13-week) below zero indicates a primary down-trend.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 2850, warning of a down-trend. A Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero flags strong selling pressure.
Falling ore prices will place strong downward pressure on the ASX and the Aussie Dollar.
ASX 300 Banks Index retreated below 9000. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 8900, or Twiggs Money Flow below zero, would warn of a correction.
The large red engulfing candle on the weekly ASX 200 chart also warns of a (secondary) reversal. Breach of support at 5800 would signal a correction. Twiggs Money Flow still shows long-term buying pressure and only a fall below zero would warn of a market top (primary trend reversal).
* Target medium-term: 5800 + ( 5800 – 5600 ) = 6000
