India’s Sensex advanced to 31000 having broken long-term resistance at 30000. Target for the advance is 32000* but expect retracement to first test the new support level. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure.
* Target: 29000 + ( 29000 – 26000 ) = 32000
The Shanghai Composite Index recovered above primary support at 3100, after the state moved quickly to ease contractionary pressures from the recent crackdown on wealth management products. Rising Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure but the situation is artificial. Normally breach of primary support would elicit strong selling.
* Target medium-term: May 2016 low of 2800
Iron ore broke support at $60, signaling another decline. The medium-term target is $50*.
* Target: 60 – ( 70 – 60 ) = 50
Resources stocks lost momentum, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index respecting resistance at 3000. Twiggs Money Flow seemed to be recovering after a strong bearish divergence but has again slipped below zero, warning of selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 2700.
The big banks face selling pressure, with Twiggs Money Flow falling sharply. The primary down-trend on the ASX 300 Banks Index, having broken support at 8500, offers a medium-term target of 8000*.
* Target: 8500 – ( 9000 – 8500 ) = 8000
The ASX 200 respected resistance at 5800. Breach of 5700 is likely and would confirm another test of primary support at 5600*. Breach of 5600 would signal a primary down-trend, offering a target of 5200*.
* Target medium-term: 5600 – ( 6000 – 5600 ) = 5200
The Dollar Index continues its downward spiral. Narrow consolidation at 97 is a bearish sign. Breach of support is likely and would indicate another decline. The primary down-trend has a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260, signaling another advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of trend weakness.
From Stanley Reed at The Age:
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries extended oil production cuts through March 2018, Khalid A. al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, said in Vienna overnight. The move follows a decision this month by Saudi Arabia and Russia to do so.
The earlier announcement helped lift prices from a low of $US46. But on Thursday, prices shed more than 4 per cent with more than a billion barrels traded….
“Opec is being caught in a pincer movement of technology and policy that will, over time, erode oil use,” said Bill Farren-Price, chief executive of Petroleum Policy Intelligence, an advisory firm for hedge funds and other investors. “This meeting is more about forestalling an oil price collapse than driving prices higher.”
Read more at: OPEC agrees to extend output cuts through March 2018
The Aussie Dollar met resistance at the former support level of 75 US cents, with a tall shadow on Tuesday’s shooting star candlestick pattern. Respect of resistance is likely and would warn of another test of support at 73.50. Breach of support would offer a target of 72, putting pressure on ASX stocks as international investors retreat.
The Aussie tends to take its direction from commodities. At present iron ore displays a weak rally that coincides with the rally on AUDUSD. Reversal through support at 60 is likely, and would warn of a decline to 50.
Broad commodity indexes like the DJ-UBS Commodity Index are consolidating in a rectangle, between 82 and 90 on the chart below. Commodities have been trending lower since 2011, as shown yesterday. Breakout above 90 is unlikely but would signal a primary up-trend. Breach of support is more likely and would indicate a decline to test support at the January 2016 low, between 72 and 74.
Growth in total monthly hours worked has slowed to 1.3% for the 12 months to April 2017. In fact, growth has been pretty lean over the last 5 years, except for the period January 2015 to February 2016.
High commodity prices in 2004 to 2008 and 2010 to 2011 coincide with periods of strong employment and GDP growth, as indicated on the chart above.
The current down-trend in commodity prices, depicted on the DJ-UBS Commodity Index above, and low growth in hours worked both point to anemic employment (and GDP) growth ahead.
China’s PBOC eased up on its crackdown on wealth management products (WMPs) and related bank lending. The resulting fall-off in new credit and a spike in interbank lending rates threatened to precipitate a sharp contraction.
Copper rallied off long-term support at 5400. The reaction is secondary and breach of 5400 remains likely, signaling a primary down-trend.
Iron ore is consolidating in a narrow bearish pattern above support at 60. Breach seems likely and would signal another decline, with a target of 50*.
* Target: 60 – ( 70 – 60 ) = 50
Shanghai’s Composite Index rallied to test its new resistance level at 3100, after breach signaled a primary down-trend. Respect would confirm the decline, with a medium-term target of 2800*, but government intervention may bolster support. Recovery above 3100 would mean all bets are off for the present.
* Target medium-term: May 2016 low of 2800
A tall shadow suggests the Sensex is also likely to retrace, to test its new support level at 30000. Respect would confirm the primary advance. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term signal remains bullish. Target for the advance is 32000*.
* Target: 29000 + ( 29000 – 26000 ) = 32000
The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 7400. Respect is likely and would indicate an advance to 7700*. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term signal remains bullish.
* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700
