The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
The Bull/Bear indicator declined to 40% from 60% last week, with heavy truck sales moving to risk-off:
Heavy truck sales declined to 37.1K units in July, with the 12-month moving average falling to 38.6K. Heavy truck sales are a reliable indicator of transport activity and business confidence. A decline of the 12-month MA by more than 10% from its October 2023 peak at 43K signals risk-off.
Stock Pricing
Stock pricing climbed to a new high of 97.81 percent, compared to a low of 95.04 percent in April and an earlier high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
The forward price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is close to the highest level in the last century, apart from the Dotcom bubble in 2000. The current reading of 24.5 is more than a 50% premium to the long-term average of 16.1 (since September 1974).
The S&P 500 PE is 28.6 times the highest trailing earnings, compared to 33.8 during the Dotcom bubble and a long-term average of 17.3 (since 1974).
Conclusion
The composite leading indicator signals a bear market, while extreme pricing highlights the risk of a significant drawdown.
Acknowledgments
- Prof. Robert Shiller: CAPE 10 Data
- S&P Global: S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Estimates
- University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
- Bureau for Economic Analysis: Motor Vehicles Data
Notes
- See Managing Risk to learn more.
- See Bull-Bear and Stock Valuation for more on our composite market indicators.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.