US Market Leading Indicators

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.

Bull/Bear Market

The Bull/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51, reflecting strong liquidity in financial markets. Values above zero indicate restrictive financial conditions.

Weekly continued claims are climbing, warning of a deteriorating labor market despite the low 4.1% unemployment rate.

Stock Pricing

Stock pricing eased slightly to 97.34 percent, compared to a low of 95.04 percent in April and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Robert Shiller’s CAPE compares the current value of the S&P 500 index to inflation-adjusted earnings for the preceding 10 years. The multiple of 37.69 is similar to the last leg of the Dotcom bull market in 1999, warning that stocks are dangerously overpriced.

Conclusion

We are bordering on a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. However, extreme stock pricing increases the risk of a significant drawdown.

Acknowledgments

• Prof. Robert Shiller: CAPE 10 Data
• S&P Global: S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Estimates
• University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers
• Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
• Bureau for Economic Analysis: Motor Vehicles Data

Notes

• See Managing Risk to learn more.
• See Bull-Bear and Stock Valuation for more on our composite market indicators.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.