Rising recession risk threatens bond market

Summary

• Trade talks with China have stalled
• President Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs will increase from 25% to 50%
• Input costs for US manufacturers are expected to soar
• Spending is expected to slow after the introduction of tariffs in April
• The economic outlook is clouded with uncertainty, and the risk of a recession is rising

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President Trump accused China of “totally violating its agreement” with the United States last week. (Reuters)

The Geneva agreement concluded between Treasury Secretary Bessent and his Chinese counterpart called for a 90-day pause in increased tariffs and for China to lift restrictions on exports of critical materials such as rare earths needed for semiconductor, electronics, and defense applications.

According to a US trade representative, the Chinese are moving slowly on granting export licenses for critical materials. The automobile industry is already warning that shortages of rare earth magnets could halt production in a matter of weeks.

The Chinese slow-walking of export licenses appears to be retaliation for the US last week imposing license requirements, and revoking some licenses, for exports of design software and chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipment.

In another blow to the auto industry, President Trump announced that he will increase tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. Steelmakers are expected to benefit from higher domestic prices, boosting output, but automobile manufacturing, heavy engineering, and construction industries will likely bear the costs.

Steel exports from Canada and Mexico will be most affected, but South Korea, Germany, and Brazil are also expected to suffer. The EU has threatened retaliatory measures if the issue cannot be resolved.

Aluminum imports are likely to continue despite the increased tariffs. Bauxite and electricity are the two primary input costs of smelters, and domestic US smelters will struggle to match the low-cost hydroelectric power of global competitors.

Financial Markets

The S&P 500 is testing the band of resistance at 6000, but short weekly candles indicate hesitancy.

Strong liquidity supports financial markets, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index falling to -0.606, signaling easy monetary conditions.

10-year Treasury yields are testing support between 4.4% and 4.5%, but the weak dollar warns of capital outflows that are expected to send long-term yields higher.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says, “You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen…. I’m telling you it’s going to happen….”

Economy

Former Fed economist Dr Lacy Hunt warns that the US economy is slowing, with a higher than 50% probability of recession. He warns that the economy is far weaker than generally understood, and what markets are not considering is that spending brought forward to front-run tariffs is likely to cause a sharp drop in spending in the next few months.

A recession would also cause the fiscal deficit to increase sharply, by at least another 2.0% of GDP, adding further stress on the bond market.

The ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 48.5% in May, indicating a long-term contraction.

Manufacturing inventories surged in March as manufacturers brought forward purchases to get ahead of April’s tariff increases.

Imports also surged in the first quarter, followed by a steep plunge in May.

Exports are contracting at a similar rate.

Prices is the only sub-index that has surged, warning of steeply rising input costs.

Crude Oil

OPEC+ decided to increase production targets by 411.000 barrels per day in July, which is equal to the increases in May and June.

However, in a sign of shrinking global trade, China’s seaborne imports declined by more than a million barrels per day in May. Kpler estimates imports at 9.43 mbpd compared to 10.46 mbpd in April and 10.45 mbpd in March. (Reuters)

Brent crude is likely to re-test support at $60 per barrel, and breach would offer a target of $50.

Dollar & Gold

Capital outflows are weakening the dollar. The US Dollar Index has broken support at 100, and follow-through below 98 would confirm another decline with a target of 90.

Gold rallied to test the band of resistance at $3,400 per ounce. A breakout above $3,500 would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of 2025.

Conclusion

Due to high levels of uncertainty, consumers and corporations are expected to defer capital expenditures in the months ahead. The drop in spending is likely to be accelerated by the build-up in inventories and the bringing forward of expenditures to get ahead of tariff increases in April.

Contracting imports and exports in the manufacturing sector warn that the economy will slow. Falling crude oil imports in China paint a similar outlook, suggesting a global recession.

A recession would increase the deficit and further stress the bond market, which is already concerned about spiraling debt levels.

A falling dollar and rising gold price warn of capital outflows from US financial markets. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon tells us to prepare for a coming crack in the bond market. That would mean higher long-term yields and sharply lower stock prices, likely boosting demand for gold even higher.

Acknowledgments

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin
• CNBC: Trump’s 50% steel tariff could see prices tank in Europe — and soar in the US
• Reuters: Trump accuses China of violating trade deal, doubles steel and aluminum tariffs
• Reuters: OPEC+’s crude output hike comes amid tepid Asian oil demand
• Institute for Supply Management: ISM Report on Business
• Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data