The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
Our Bull/Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 60%, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off:
We replaced the Coincident Economic Activity Index with Current Economic Conditions from the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey. The UOM index offers earlier recession warnings—when the 3-month moving average crosses below 100—and more timely updates.
The current reading of 68.20 is a strong bear signal. The Fed Funds target rate is also in a bear cycle, but the two require confirmation from one of the following two indicators:
If the Chicago Fed Financial National Conditions Index rises above -0.40.
Or the S&P 500 30-week Smoothed Momentum crosses below zero.
Stock Pricing
Stock pricing eased slightly to the 95.67th percentile from a high of 97.79 six weeks ago. However, the extreme reading still warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.
Conclusion
There’s little change this week. We are close to a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is still extreme, highlighting the risk of a significant drawdown.
Acknowledgments
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- Multpl.com: Shiller PE Ratio
- S&P Global: S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Estimates
- University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.