….Yet as the world’s second-largest economy continues to slog through the aftermath of its debt-driven economic miracle-cum-titanic housing bubble, policymakers put their best foot forward – with Chinese characteristics. Thus, aggregate financing fell by nearly RMB 200 billion in April from the prior month, data released over the weekend show, marking the first outright contraction in that metric of broad credit availability in nearly two decades.
True to form, the government looks to sweep those inconvenient figures under the rug, as Bloomberg relays that seven separate research notes from local brokerages commenting on that data release were scrubbed from the WeChat social media platform as of this morning.
Then, too, regulators have switched off live trading data showing foreign investment flows on the mainland Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges via the Stock Connect trading link. That move, which was telegraphed in an April announcement, follows word that foreign direct investment registered at just $10.3 billion during the first quarter, down 56% from the first three months of 2023.
~ Jim Grant, Grant’s Almost Daily
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.