Donald Trumps latest tweets on a trade deal with China:
As Trish Nguyen predicted, Trump was never going to introduce the Dec15 tariffs as they directly impact on US consumers, not producers as in earlier rounds of tariffs.
Prof Aaron Friedberg (Princeton) gives an interesting summary of the impact this deal will have. The bottom line is that China will not change its ways:
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CCP-ruled China has long exploited advanced industrial economies – by pursuing a variety of predatory and market-distorting policies
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The CCP is exceptionally unlikely to offer any fundamental concessions on these policies – they are deeply embedded in China’s economic system and the CCP views them as essential to its hold on power
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Even if CCP-ruled China were to modify some of its more objectionable economic practices, so long as its domestic political regime remains unchanged, it will continue to pose a serious geopolitical and ideological challenge to the U.S.
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In light of these realities, the U.S. should pursue a four-part strategy for defending U.S. prosperity and security, by moving toward a posture of partial economic disengagement from China.
De-coupling will continue.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.