From Morningstar today:
“Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar.
Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump in subscriber numbers.
But still, 2019 marks the 11th consecutive year of losses for Xero, which is a member of the so-called Australian tech stock club, known as the WAAAX, which include WiseTech, Afterpay, Altium, and Appen…..”
This supports our view, from January 2019:
“We consider Xero Limited (XRO) to be over-priced and recommend waiting until market price aligns with fair value.”
Xero is currently priced at $60.14, whereas our estimate of fair value, from January 2019, is $31.75, based on a 10-year payback period.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.