Silver has broken support at $15/ounce, warning of a test of primary support at $14. Declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure.
Gold continues to test medium-term support at $1280/ounce. Precious metals tend to move together and Gold is expected to follow Silver in a test of primary support ($1180 for Gold).
The Dollar index, however, retreated below its new support level at 97.50. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction.
China’s Yuan fell sharply against the Dollar as trade talks encountered major turbulence. The outlook for a trade deal now looks poor.
10-Year Treasury yields are also falling as the prospect of further Fed rate hikes dims. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong demand for Treasuries (downward pressure on yields).
Failure to ink a trade deal is likely to boost demand for safe haven assets like the Dollar, Yen, Gold and US Treasuries. Capital flight from China may accelerate.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.