The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2800. Declining Volatility suggests a return to business as usual. Breakout above 2800, with follow-through above 2820, would suggest a primary advance to 3000.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing resistance at 25400. Breakout would signal a fresh advance but buying pressure is modest and gains are likely to be slow.
The Nasdaq 100 leads the charge, advancing towards a target of 7700 after respecting new support at 7000.
Small caps are also out-performing, with the Russell 2000 iShares ETF testing resistance at 170 after breaking out above its January high of 160.
Although this is the final stage of a bull market, there is no sign of it ending. I am wary of the impact of a trade war on individual stocks and have reduced International Growth portfolio exposure to multinationals that have strong sales in China.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.