The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend. Its decline accelerated in the last week, headed for the next level of primary support between 92 and 93, which is bullish for gold.
Falling crude prices, however, have a bearish influence on gold. Nymex light crude recently staged a rally but ran into resistance at $47.50/barrel. Expect another decline to test the lower trend channel at $42, continuing the primary down-trend.
Gold broke resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1260 would signal another test of resistance at $1300. Reversal below $1250, on the other hand, would be a bearish sign.
Silver rallied off primary support at $15.50/ounce but only a break above the descending trendline (at $17/ounce) would flag a reversal in the primary down-trend.
