I would have expected a gold rally in response to the falling Dollar but the response is so far muted.
The Euro leapt 3.08% last Thursday, December 3rd, in response to a weaker-than-expected stimulus package from the European Central Bank.
The Dollar Index, with a 57.6% weighting against the Euro, fell 2.26%.
Other factors also weaken the Dollar. The Peoples Bank of China is selling off reserves to support the falling Yuan. This is likely to continue as capital outflows from China maintain pressure on the currency.
A weaker Dollar would boost US exports and accelerate domestic growth. Strong bearish divergence between 13-week Twiggs Momentum and the Dollar Index warns of a reversal. Breach of support at 98 would indicate a test of primary support at 93. Failure of primary support remains unlikely, but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning.
Interest Rates
Long-term interest rates remain soft despite the anticipated Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.0 percent. Breakout above 2.50 percent would indicate a test of 3.00 percent.
Gold
Gold is headed for a test of support at $1000/ounce* after breaching $1100. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero confirm a strong primary down-trend. A weaker Dollar would increase support for gold but there is no sign of this yet.
* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1000