China hot money heads for the exit

Huw McKay at Westpac writes:

“The Jan-Feb FX positions of China’s banks imply that FX reserves fell in the early part of the year, despite back to back monster trade surpluses of $US60 billion. The logical conclusion is that money flowed out in a big way on the financial account.”

There are two reasons why capital would flow out on the financial account. The usual explanation is the PBOC buying US Treasuries, exporting capital to prevent the yuan appreciating against the Dollar. But Huw points out that the PBOC balance sheet shows a slight decline in foreign assets held. This could be a smokescreen, with investments channeled through an intermediary. Otherwise, it could be a sign that private capital is leaving for safer shores. This from the Business Times:

More than 76,000 Chinese millionaires emigrated or acquired citizenship of another country in the decade through 2013 amid global expansion by the nation’s companies.

Australia was among the most favored destinations, broker Knight Frank LLP said on Thursday, citing data compiled by law firm Fragomen LLP. The Chinese accounted for more than 90 percent of applications for the country’s significant investor visa in the two years to the end of January, representing 1,384 people. They also make the most applications for high-net-worth visas in the UK and the US.

Consumer confidence is below 2008/2009 levels and declining.

RT @TomOrlik: One victim of China's falling property prices – consumer confidence pic.twitter.com/d6chuyjh1A

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) March 18, 2015