Ten-year Treasury Note yields retreated below 2.30%, signaling another test of primary support at 2.00%. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a continuing down-trend. Recovery above 2.40% is unlikely, but would warn of a rally to 2.65%.
* Target calculation: 2.30 – ( 2.60 – 2.30 ) = 2.00
The Dollar Index is testing resistance at its 2008/2010 highs between 88 and 90. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy (primary) up-trend. Expect retracement or consolidation below resistance, but failure of support at 84 is unlikely.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00
Gold
Low inflation and a strong dollar reduce demand for gold. Low interest rates reduce the carrying cost of gold, but the appeal is muted when inflation expectations remain low. Gold is testing its new resistance level at $1200/ounce. Respect is likely and would confirm a long-term target of $1000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a strong down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000